Huobi Growth Academy | Macro Research Report on the Crypto Market: US-Iran Ceasefire, Reevaluation Moment for Risk Assets

In the early morning of April 8, 2026, less than an hour and a half before the 'final deadline' set by Trump, the US and Iran reached a dramatic two-week ceasefire agreement, pressing pause on nearly forty days of Middle East conflict. Global financial markets reacted with intense volatility: WTI crude oil plummeted over 15% to $91 per barrel, erasing more than 40% of its gains since the start of the conflict; Nasdaq futures surged 2.5%, instantly igniting market risk appetite; spot gold soared against the trend to $4,811 per ounce, rising over 3%; Bitcoin broke through $72,000, gaining over 5.5% in 24 hours, while Ethereum surpassed $2,200, climbing over 5.9%.

The differentiated reactions of major asset classes reveal a key trend: during geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin is transitioning from being a 'purely risky asset' to becoming an asset class that combines the dual characteristics of 'a risky asset and digital gold.' The ceasefire is merely a 'breathing window,' not permanent peace. Iran's ten-point plan directly addresses the withdrawal of American troops, lifting sanctions, and even war reparations, and the contradictions in both parties’ core demands remain unresolved. For the crypto market, the short-term rebound in risk appetite, coupled with regulatory developments such as the CLARITY Act, creates a rare rebound opportunity. However, uncertainties surrounding the direction of negotiations after two weeks, the chain reaction of falling oil prices on inflation expectations, and changes in the macro liquidity environment are still critical variables looming overhead.

In the early morning of April 8, 2026, global financial markets were holding their breath. Less than an hour and a half remained until the 'final deadline' set by Trump—8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 7—and a message from Trump’s social media account exploded onto the scene: 'I agree to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.'

This ceasefire was achieved through intensive diplomatic mediation. The day before, Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar had separately called Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, requesting a two-week extension of the 'final deadline' and asking Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks as a goodwill gesture. Trump’s condition was that Iran 'fully, immediately, and safely' open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the ceasefire. Iran accepted the ceasefire proposal but explicitly stated its 'complete distrust' of the US. According to the agreement, the ceasefire officially took effect at 3:30 AM Iran time on April 8 (8:00 AM Beijing time), and Israel also agreed to suspend bombing operations during the negotiations. The ceasefire lasts for two weeks, with talks set to begin on April 10 in Islamabad, Pakistan, extendable by mutual consent. Currently, the US military has paused airstrikes inside Iran, and Iranian armed forces have also ceased defensive actions, though notably, the essence of the ceasefire is a 'two-way suspension,' not a permanent peace agreement.

Iran simultaneously released a ten-point plan submitted to the US via Pakistan, with core demands including: the withdrawal of American combat troops from all bases in the region, lifting all sanctions on Iran, accepting Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, paying war reparations to Iran, and ultimately approving all terms through a binding UN Security Council resolution. Iran stated that 'Pakistan has informed Iran that the US accepts the above principles as the basis for negotiations,' but the US has never directly responded to this. The vast gap in core demands between the two sides makes the outlook highly uncertain two weeks from now. Negotiations are a continuation of the battlefield, not the end of it.

Following the announcement of the ceasefire, major global assets exhibited rare and extreme divergence, reflecting the complexity of the market’s pricing logic regarding 'peace expectations.'

Cryptocurrency Market: Risk appetite has fully recovered, with Bitcoin leading the rally. Bitcoin briefly broke through $72,000, reaching $72,760, with a 24-hour gain of over 5%. Ethereum surpassed $2,200, hitting $2,273 at one point, with a 24-hour increase of over 7%. Other major cryptocurrencies like SOL have also risen to varying degrees. Over the past 24 hours, $595 million in positions were liquidated across the entire network, of which short positions accounted for $429 million, or 72%, mainly short liquidations. Bitcoin short liquidations totaled $244 million. The strong rebound in Bitcoin is driven by two key factors: First, the ceasefire news directly triggered the concentrated liquidation of previously accumulated short positions; second, US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $471.3 million in net inflows on Monday, continuing last week’s inflow trend, with institutional capital returning to provide fundamental support for the rally.

Oil: Full retracement of the war premium. As the absolute epicenter of this conflict, the oil market experienced the most severe fluctuations. During the conflict, fears of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed WTI crude prices from around $65 to nearly $118 per barrel, an increase of almost 70%. Following the ceasefire announcement, WTI crude futures plummeted over 15% in a single day, falling to $91.3 per barrel, with losses widening to 19%. About one-fifth of global oil supply transportation relies on the Strait of Hormuz. If the ceasefire agreement holds, oil prices face further downward pressure.

Gold: Unexpected resurgence of safe-haven demand. Gold's performance is one of the most noteworthy signals in this event. According to the conventional wisdom that 'good news exhaustion leads to declines,' easing geopolitical tensions should weaken gold's safe-haven appeal and cause prices to drop. However, after the ceasefire announcement, spot gold surged against expectations to $4,811 per ounce, rising over 3%, while the main New York gold futures contract rebounded above $4,840. This unusual phenomenon where 'safe-haven assets rise after geopolitical easing' reveals deeper logic: long-term funds are not betting on short-term ceasefires but rather reflect a deep distrust of the US dollar credit system and American global leadership. Gold’s rise fundamentally reflects deep skepticism about fiat currency credibility and long-term geopolitical stability. During the US-Iran conflict, the US Dollar Index appreciated by over 2%, but it fell nearly 0.7% intraday after the ceasefire news, retreating to 98.9, reinforcing this view.

US Stocks: Rally amid lingering concerns. Nasdaq futures extended gains to 2.5%, S&P 500 futures rose over 2%, and Dow futures increased by 1.8%. The Asia-Pacific markets responded similarly, with the Nikkei 225 index expanding gains to 4.7% and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index climbing 2.1%. However, during Tuesday's regular trading session, the three major US indices showed muted performance: the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, Nasdaq gained 0.1%, and the Dow fell 0.18%, reflecting caution among investors regarding economic fundamentals.

The differentiated pricing of major asset classes indicates that the ceasefire news triggered varying reactions across different asset categories: crude oil directly reversed geopolitical risk premiums, US stocks repaired risk appetite, gold priced in long-term uncertainties in advance, and the crypto market simultaneously absorbed both the sentiment recovery of risk assets and the safe-haven narrative of digital assets.

In this round of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin's behavior provided an important analytical framework: it no longer simply equates to a 'risk asset' or 'safe-haven asset' but demonstrates unique 'dual characteristics.'

During the escalation phase (late February to early April), Bitcoin diverged significantly from traditional risk assets. Although heightened geopolitical tensions caused oil prices to soar and inflation expectations to rise, undermining hopes for Fed rate cuts and pressuring traditional tech stocks, Bitcoin did not suffer a synchronized sharp decline. This was because Bitcoin had already undergone a significant correction early in the conflict, leaving relatively limited passive selling pressure in the market. Additionally, sustained net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs provided liquidity support.

In the rebound phase following the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin's performance reflected two layers of logic: on one hand, it rebounded in tandem with US and Asia-Pacific stock markets, demonstrating its risk-sensitive nature as a globally liquid asset. On the other hand, its rebound magnitude and sustainability exceeded those of traditional risk assets, reflecting market pricing of its 'digital gold' narrative. Market analysis indicates that Bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe-haven assets following major global crises. Research by Mercado Bitcoin shows that in the 60-day market performance following events such as the initial stages of the pandemic and the escalation of US trade tariffs, Bitcoin’s returns significantly outperformed gold and the S&P 500 index in most time windows.

Bitcoin’s 'dual characteristics' are its core feature distinguishing it from other assets. It acts as a risk asset, highly sensitive to global liquidity and macro policies, and as a scarce asset, gaining safe-haven premiums amid doubts about sovereign credit. These two attributes are not mutually exclusive but alternately dominate under different macro conditions. In the stage of escalating geopolitical conflicts, its safe-haven narrative takes precedence; during periods of liquidity contraction, its risk attribute becomes more prominent.

However, this framework hinges on one prerequisite: the continuous increase in institutional participation. On April 7, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $471.3 million in net inflows, showing that institutional capital is using market volatility for strategic positioning. Institutional capital’s pricing power over Bitcoin has significantly strengthened, shifting Bitcoin’s response to geopolitical events from 'retail-driven sentiment' to 'institution-led macro pricing.' This transition suggests that Bitcoin’s correlation with macro variables (interest rates, the US Dollar Index, global liquidity) may further strengthen, while the impact of pure geopolitical news on prices may gradually diminish.

The ceasefire agreement lasts only two weeks, meaning the current market pricing is based on an extremely fragile premise — progress in Islamabad negotiations on April 10 and the continuation of the ceasefire two weeks later. If negotiations stall, geopolitical risk premiums will quickly return to the market. Below are the three core variables that need close monitoring in the future:

Variable One: The direction of the Islamabad negotiations (Key时间节点: April 10 to April 24). The Iranian negotiation team is expected to adhere to the core demands of the ten-point plan, including the withdrawal of US troops and the lifting of sanctions, while the Trump administration’s bottom line is 'complete denuclearization and dismantling of nuclear facilities by Iran.' The gap between the two sides’ core demands is vast, making it highly uncertain whether a substantive agreement can be reached within two weeks. Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for Brent crude oil averaging $85 per barrel in 2026 in its latest report, far exceeding the $61 at the beginning of the year, reflecting that the market still prices in long-term geopolitical risks at a high level. Multiple analysts pointed out that the two-week window is insufficient for reaching a structural agreement that addresses deep-rooted Middle Eastern conflicts, and the sharp decline in energy assets like crude oil is more due to profit-taking by bulls and technical squeezes rather than the complete elimination of fundamental supply concerns.

Variable Two: Inflation expectations and the Fed's policy path. Over the past month, due to the US-Iran conflict causing crude oil prices to surge over 40%, global inflation expectations significantly increased, prompting markets to begin pricing in the possibility of the Fed pausing rate cuts or even raising rates. As oil prices plummeted, inflationary pressure expectations eased, recalibrating market forecasts for the Fed’s rate cut trajectory. If oil prices remain below $100 during the ceasefire period, it will provide the Fed with greater policy flexibility, acting as a macro tailwind for global risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, if negotiations collapse after two weeks and oil prices soar again, inflation expectations will quickly return, once more casting uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-cutting path.

Variable Three: Legislative progress of the CLARITY Act. BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas noted, “The bullish scenario hinges on two catalysts: one, a confirmed and sustained US-Iran ceasefire bringing oil prices below $100; and two, the anticipated passage of the US CLARITY Act in late April, which institutional market participants are closely watching as a regulatory ‘unlock.’” If the CLARITY Act passes in late April, it will offer clearer legal guidance for the regulatory framework surrounding stablecoins and digital assets, further lowering barriers to entry for institutions and becoming a significant medium-term catalyst for the crypto market.

Additionally, attention should be paid to movements in the on-chain derivatives market. On the US-Iran ceasefire prediction market, the probability of the April 15 contract jumped from 67% to 90% within minutes of the announcement, eventually rising to 99.6% 'YES,' indicating extremely high confidence in a short-term ceasefire. However, research by institutions such as Chainalysis shows that when prediction market probabilities overly concentrate on a single outcome, it often signals insufficient pricing of tail risks—when everyone believes a ceasefire will hold, it becomes the most vulnerable moment for an expectation reversal.

The current market rebound is based on an extremely fragile premise—a two-week ceasefire. Once this foundation wavers, various assets currently priced in will face violent revaluation.

The return of geopolitical risks is the most direct threat. If substantial progress is not made in the Islamabad negotiations by April 10, or if the ceasefire agreement fails to continue after two weeks, the market will swiftly reprice geopolitical risk premiums. At that point, oil prices could surge again, global inflation expectations will rise, and the Fed’s rate cut path will once more face uncertainty, putting risk assets (including Bitcoin) under renewed pressure.

Uncertainty regarding regulatory policies also deserves attention. If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly in late April, it will serve as a medium-term positive for the crypto market; however, if resistance arises during the legislative process, markets may reprice regulatory risks.

The tightening of macro liquidity is the third variable. If oil prices continue to fall due to a ceasefire, easing inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve will have more room to cut interest rates, which would be positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if oil prices surge again due to a breakdown in the ceasefire, expectations for Fed rate cuts will be suppressed, creating headwinds for Bitcoin at the macro level.

From a strategic perspective, the current rebound in the crypto market offers a rare opportunity for reducing positions or rebalancing portfolios. Key data releases (such as US CPI, PPI, and retail sales figures) on April 14-15 and the start of negotiations on April 10 will provide additional macro judgment bases. Investors are advised to maintain flexible positions, closely monitor the progress of the Islamabad negotiations, fluctuations in oil prices, and statements from Fed officials, staying rational when the market overprices 'peace' and maintaining clarity when excessive panic over 'war' emerges. Amidst the dual dynamics of macro and geopolitical factors, maintaining strategic flexibility and sensitivity to key variables is more important than betting on a single direction.

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