Daily Options Outlook | Shift in US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement; GDP and PCE Data to be Released Tonight; Intel Surged Yesterday but Block Trades Indicate Divergence

I. Today's Options Opportunities Outlook

Based on today's US stock trading schedule, the main sources of market volatility remain concentrated inMacroeconomic dataandevent-driven individual stockstwo main themes. Focus on index, interest rate-sensitive assets, and a few companies with clear event windows for positioning.

At the macro level, changes to the US-Iran ceasefire agreement combined with rising expectations of Fed interest rate hikes have caused pre-market declines across the board. The US GDP and PCE data released at 8:30 AM (Eastern Time) today are the most important catalysts for trading across the entire market.The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release both the third estimate of Q4 2025 GDP and the February 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report today, the latter of which includes the highly watched PCE inflation indicator. This means that, before today’s opening, the market will receive two key signals on growth and inflation simultaneously, potentially leading to concentrated pricing movements in indices, interest rates, and dollar-denominated assets.

At the individual stock level, in the aviation and travel-related chains (including $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ , and $United Airlines (UAL.US)$ 、 $American Airlines (AAL.US)$ peer stocks),$Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ reported its March 2026 quarter earnings yesterday. Meanwhile, oil prices retreated sharply yesterday following the ceasefire news, driving strength in the aviation and travel sectors overall; however, after April 9, as doubts about the sustainability of the ceasefire rose, oil prices rebounded.

II. Review of Yesterday's Options Market Performance

Index Options

Trading volume in the US index options market increased yesterday, with a total of 7.95 million contracts traded. The put/call ratio rose to 1.09.

As the upcoming expiration date approaches,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ The distribution of options trading volume shows the following characteristics: the peak trading volume for put options is at 6,650 points, while the peak for call options is at 6,830 points.

Single Stock Options

$Intel (INTC.US)$It closed up 11.42%, with 1.0862 million options contracts traded, and the put-to-call volume ratio rose to 0.58. The implied volatility (IV) yesterday was74.37%, which is at the higher percentile level88%of the IV Percentile over the past year.

On the news front, Intel acquired full control by repurchasing a 49% stake in the Apollo joint venture Fab 34 in Ireland for $14.2 billion. Lynx raised its price target on Intel to $70, expecting strong future demand.

Looking at this Friday's April 10 expiry call options, several call options doubled in value, with the highest increase reaching 804%.

Observing unusual large options trades indicates that bearish sentiment prevails.

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$It closed down 6.20%, with 680,600 options contracts traded, and the put-to-call volume ratio fell to 0.67. Michael Burry criticized Palantir, stating that Anthropic is capturing its enterprise AI market share.

Options Volume Leaderboard

Among the top 10 stocks by options trading volume,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Tesla had the highest put-to-call volume ratio, reaching 0.82. Tesla's shares fell 1% against the broader market rebound driven by the US-Iran ceasefire news.

The highest put/call open interest ratio is$Micron Technology (MU.US)$, reaching 1.08. Micron Technology's shares surged 7.7% due to the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and UBS raising its price target to $535.

Implied volatility leaderboard (underlying market cap > $10 billion and option volume > 100,000)

$Cipher Digital (CIFR.US)$Implied VolatilityThe highest increase reached 114.96%, representing a 4.33% decline from the previous trading day. Bitcoin's breakout above $70,000 drove up the stock prices of cryptocurrency-related companies, with active options trading observed for Cipher Digital.

$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$Implied volatility surged the most, reaching 109.90%, marking a 2.82% increase from the previous trading day. TeraWulf benefited from Bitcoin surpassing $70,000 and the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which fueled the rise of cryptocurrency-related stocks.

Finally, here's a small perk for fellow investors. Welcome, fellow investors, to claim your benefit.Options Beginner Pack

This event is exclusively for invited HK users, click to learn moreDetailed event rules >>

Market conditions are complex and volatile,Options strategyOverwhelmed by choices? Futubull helps you build a portfolio in three steps.Options strategymaking investing simple and efficient from now on!

Risk WarningAn option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price at any time on or before a specific date. The price of an option is influenced by various factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, the time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of the option’s volatility over a certain period in the future. It is derived inversely from the Black-Scholes (BS) pricing model and is generally considered an indicator of market sentiment. When investors expect greater volatility, they may be more willing to pay higher prices for options to help hedge risks, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to evaluate.Option priceattractiveness, identify potential mispricings, and manage risk exposure.

DisclaimerThis content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion, or guarantee for any securities, financial products, or tools. The risk of loss in trading options can be substantial. In some cases, losses may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if you set contingent orders such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, these may not prevent losses. Market conditions may prevent these orders from being executed. You might be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon exercise and expiration. Option trading involves extremely high risks and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should read carefully before engaging in any options trading strategy.Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options。

304K Views