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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Apr 9 09:09

The technical outlook for the Hang Seng Index is "neutral," with coexisting rebound momentum and overbought pressure.

On the previous day (April 8th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The index closed at 25,893.02 points, surging 3.09% in a single day with a trading volume of 372.437 billion yuan, indicating active turnover.
On the previous day (April 8th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,893.02 points, surging 3.09% in a single day, with a trading volume of 372.437 billion yuan, indicating active liquidity. Support and resistance levels: Support 2 at 24,628 points, Support 1 at 25,175 points, Resistance 1 at 26,290 points, Resistance 2 at 27,158 points, with a 54% probability of an upward move and a 5-day volatility of 5.9%. The Hang Seng Index RSI is at 54, within the neutral range; the overall technical indicator summary signal is neutral, with a signal strength of 10; multiple oscillation indicators show neutrality, the Williams %R indicator suggests an overbought condition but provides a neutral signal, the stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought state and a sell signal, the MACD signal is buy, Bollinger Bands are stable, and the overall situation reflects a phase where both rebound continuation and profit-taking pressures coexist. Blue chips generally rose on April 8th, with clear divergence in gains, and technical signals showing "tripolar divergence." The breakdown is as follows: (1) Rebound potential stocks (received buy signals) 1、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 508 yuan, up 3.84% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (496.63 yuan), below MA30 (517.46 yuan) and MA60 (553.08 yuan); RSI at 45 (neutral), overall technical indicator summary signal is buy (signal strength 8), multiple oscillation indicators suggest oversold bottoming, with rebound momentum accumulating. 2、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$...
Support and resistance levels: Support 2 at 24,628 points, Support 1 at 25,175 points, Resistance 1 at 26,290 points, Resistance 2 at 27,158 points; the probability of an upward move is 54%, with a 5-day volatility of 5.9%.
The Hang Seng Index RSI is 54, within the neutral range; the overall technical indicators signal neutrality with a strength of 10; multiple oscillation indicators show neutrality. The Williams %R indicator suggests overbought conditions but gives a neutral signal, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicates overbought conditions and issues a sell signal. The MACD suggests a buy signal, and the Bollinger Bands show stable movement, reflecting a phase where rebound momentum continues alongside profit-taking pressures.
On the previous day (April 8th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,893.02 points, surging 3.09% in a single day, with a trading volume of 372.437 billion yuan, indicating active liquidity. Support and resistance levels: Support 2 at 24,628 points, Support 1 at 25,175 points, Resistance 1 at 26,290 points, Resistance 2 at 27,158 points, with a 54% probability of an upward move and a 5-day volatility of 5.9%. The Hang Seng Index RSI is at 54, within the neutral range; the overall technical indicator summary signal is neutral, with a signal strength of 10; multiple oscillation indicators show neutrality, the Williams %R indicator suggests an overbought condition but provides a neutral signal, the stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought state and a sell signal, the MACD signal is buy, Bollinger Bands are stable, and the overall situation reflects a phase where both rebound continuation and profit-taking pressures coexist. Blue chips generally rose on April 8th, with clear divergence in gains, and technical signals showing "tripolar divergence." The breakdown is as follows: (1) Rebound potential stocks (received buy signals) 1、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 508 yuan, up 3.84% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (496.63 yuan), below MA30 (517.46 yuan) and MA60 (553.08 yuan); RSI at 45 (neutral), overall technical indicator summary signal is buy (signal strength 8), multiple oscillation indicators suggest oversold bottoming, with rebound momentum accumulating. 2、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$...
On April 8, blue chips generally rose, with notable divergence in gains. Technical signals exhibited 'tripolar divergence,' broken down as follows:
(1) Rebound Potential Stocks (Buy Signal Received)
1、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 508 yuan, up 3.84% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (496.63 yuan), but below MA30 (517.46 yuan) and MA60 (553.08 yuan); RSI at 45 (neutral). Overall technical indicators suggest a buy signal (strength 8), with multiple oscillators indicating oversold consolidation, and rebound momentum is building.
2、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ : Closing price at 126.5 yuan, surging 6.75% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (122.46 yuan), but below MA30 (131.29 yuan) and MA60 (145.8 yuan); RSI at 41 (slightly neutral on the low side). Overall technical indicators suggest a buy signal (strength 9), with oscillators pointing to severe oversold conditions and strong technical rebound demand.
(2) Overbought Risk Stocks (Sell Signal Received)
1、 $CCB (00939.HK)$ : Closing price at 8.51 yuan, slightly rising 0.71% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (8.19 yuan), MA30 (8.05 yuan), and MA60 (7.95 yuan), maintaining a bullish alignment; RSI at 65 (overbought zone). Overall technical indicators suggest a sell signal (strength 8), with oscillators indicating overbought conditions and clear pressure for profit-taking.
2、 $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ : Closing price at 80.95 yuan, slightly rising 1.12% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (78.72 yuan) and MA30 (78.99 yuan), but below MA60 (79.28 yuan); RSI at 63 (overbought zone). Overall technical indicators suggest a sell signal (strength 9), with oscillators indicating overbought conditions and a sell signal, providing a clear risk warning.
3、 $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ : Closing price at 138.6 yuan, surged 6.62% in a single day; closing price is higher than MA10 (126.54 yuan), MA30 (130.76 yuan), and MA60 (131.71 yuan); RSI is 61 (overbought zone), technical indicators suggest a sell signal (signal strength 8), oscillation indicators suggest overbought conditions, with significant short-term gains.
4、 $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ : Closing price at 88.5 yuan, surged 10.28% in a single day; closing price is higher than MA10 (83.6 yuan), MA30 (80.43 yuan), and MA60 (87.81 yuan); RSI is 54 (moderately bullish), technical indicators suggest a sell signal (signal strength 9), oscillation indicators suggest overbought conditions, profit-taking pressure increases after sharp rise.
(3) Cautiously observed targets (received neutral signal)
1、 $HKEX (00388.HK)$ : Closing price at 412.4 yuan, up 4.14% in a single day; closing price is higher than MA10 (393.3 yuan) and MA30 (403.65 yuan), but lower than MA60 (414.05 yuan); RSI is 55 (moderately bullish), technical indicators suggest a neutral signal (signal strength 9), sustainability of short-term surge remains questionable.
2、 $AIA (01299.HK)$ : Closing price at 88.65 yuan, up 2.90% in a single day; closing price is higher than MA10 (85.6 yuan), MA30 (84.8 yuan), and MA60 (85.01 yuan); RSI is 57 (moderately bullish), technical indicators suggest a neutral signal (signal strength 9), profit-taking pressure rises following a short-term surge.
3、 $PING AN (02318.HK)$ : Closing price at 62.4 yuan, up 3.65% in a single day; closing price is higher than MA10 (59.65 yuan), but lower than MA30 (63.29 yuan) and MA60 (66.78 yuan); RSI is 50 (neutral), technical indicators suggest a neutral signal (signal strength 10), short-term trend remains unclear.
4、 $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ : Closing price at 32.76 yuan, surged 6.09% in a single day; closing price is higher than MA10 (32.25 yuan), but lower than MA30 (33.51 yuan) and MA60 (34.9 yuan); RSI is 43 (neutral), technical indicators suggest a neutral signal (signal strength 8), sustainability needs observation after the sharp rise.
Review and Selection of Hang Seng Index Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts
(1) Review of Previous Products
Looking back at the Hang Seng Index-related warrants and bull/bear products recommended on March 30, performance was impressive: $BI#HSI RC2801G.C (55890.HK)$ Increased by 54% in 2 days, $BI#HSI RC2801E.C (55493.HK)$ Increased by 46%, $JP-HSI @EC2606A.C (23979.HK)$Up 13%, $UB-HSI @EC2606A.C (24012.HK)$ A 12% increase, following the rebound of the Hang Seng Index to achieve good leverage returns, aligned with market rhythm.
On the previous day (April 8th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,893.02 points, surging 3.09% in a single day, with a trading volume of 372.437 billion yuan, indicating active liquidity. Support and resistance levels: Support 2 at 24,628 points, Support 1 at 25,175 points, Resistance 1 at 26,290 points, Resistance 2 at 27,158 points, with a 54% probability of an upward move and a 5-day volatility of 5.9%. The Hang Seng Index RSI is at 54, within the neutral range; the overall technical indicator summary signal is neutral, with a signal strength of 10; multiple oscillation indicators show neutrality, the Williams %R indicator suggests an overbought condition but provides a neutral signal, the stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought state and a sell signal, the MACD signal is buy, Bollinger Bands are stable, and the overall situation reflects a phase where both rebound continuation and profit-taking pressures coexist. Blue chips generally rose on April 8th, with clear divergence in gains, and technical signals showing "tripolar divergence." The breakdown is as follows: (1) Rebound potential stocks (received buy signals) 1、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 508 yuan, up 3.84% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (496.63 yuan), below MA30 (517.46 yuan) and MA60 (553.08 yuan); RSI at 45 (neutral), overall technical indicator summary signal is buy (signal strength 8), multiple oscillation indicators suggest oversold bottoming, with rebound momentum accumulating. 2、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$...
(II) Hang Seng Index Warrant Selection:
Considering the strong performance of the Hang Seng Index and divergence in technical factors, two selected products suitable for different trading strategies are recommended for investors' reference, balancing risks and potential opportunities.
1. UBS Group call warrant for Hang Seng Index (24012): Leverage 17.6, strike price 27,738; the lowest implied volatility and higher leverage make it suitable for investors optimistic about the Hang Seng Index moving towards the resistance level.
2、 $JP-HSI @EP2606B.P (23956.HK)$ Leverage 11.7, strike price 24,400; the lowest premium with relatively ideal implied volatility and leverage, making it suitable for investors concerned about a pullback risk after the Hang Seng Index becomes overbought.
On the previous day (April 8th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,893.02 points, surging 3.09% in a single day, with a trading volume of 372.437 billion yuan, indicating active liquidity. Support and resistance levels: Support 2 at 24,628 points, Support 1 at 25,175 points, Resistance 1 at 26,290 points, Resistance 2 at 27,158 points, with a 54% probability of an upward move and a 5-day volatility of 5.9%. The Hang Seng Index RSI is at 54, within the neutral range; the overall technical indicator summary signal is neutral, with a signal strength of 10; multiple oscillation indicators show neutrality, the Williams %R indicator suggests an overbought condition but provides a neutral signal, the stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought state and a sell signal, the MACD signal is buy, Bollinger Bands are stable, and the overall situation reflects a phase where both rebound continuation and profit-taking pressures coexist. Blue chips generally rose on April 8th, with clear divergence in gains, and technical signals showing "tripolar divergence." The breakdown is as follows: (1) Rebound potential stocks (received buy signals) 1、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 508 yuan, up 3.84% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (496.63 yuan), below MA30 (517.46 yuan) and MA60 (553.08 yuan); RSI at 45 (neutral), overall technical indicator summary signal is buy (signal strength 8), multiple oscillation indicators suggest oversold bottoming, with rebound momentum accumulating. 2、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$...
On the previous day (April 8th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,893.02 points, surging 3.09% in a single day, with a trading volume of 372.437 billion yuan, indicating active liquidity. Support and resistance levels: Support 2 at 24,628 points, Support 1 at 25,175 points, Resistance 1 at 26,290 points, Resistance 2 at 27,158 points, with a 54% probability of an upward move and a 5-day volatility of 5.9%. The Hang Seng Index RSI is at 54, within the neutral range; the overall technical indicator summary signal is neutral, with a signal strength of 10; multiple oscillation indicators show neutrality, the Williams %R indicator suggests an overbought condition but provides a neutral signal, the stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought state and a sell signal, the MACD signal is buy, Bollinger Bands are stable, and the overall situation reflects a phase where both rebound continuation and profit-taking pressures coexist. Blue chips generally rose on April 8th, with clear divergence in gains, and technical signals showing "tripolar divergence." The breakdown is as follows: (1) Rebound potential stocks (received buy signals) 1、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closing price at 508 yuan, up 3.84% in a single day; closing price above MA10 (496.63 yuan), below MA30 (517.46 yuan) and MA60 (553.08 yuan); RSI at 45 (neutral), overall technical indicator summary signal is buy (signal strength 8), multiple oscillation indicators suggest oversold bottoming, with rebound momentum accumulating. 2、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$...
Risk Warning: The Hang Seng Index and several blue-chip stocks showed overbought signals yesterday. The market is currently in a phase where rebound momentum coexists with profit-taking pressure. Wheel warrants are experiencing significant volatility. Investors should assess their risk tolerance, rationally manage positions, and closely monitor changes in support/resistance levels and trading volumes of the Hang Seng Index.
The Hang Seng Index surged 3% yesterday. Do you think it will continue to test the resistance at 26,290? A. Yes B. No.
Feel free to share your insights in the comments section.
For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants'!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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