April 2nd [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-2-Great Wall Motor, HSBC, Yanzhou Coal Energy

1. Great Wall Motor (02333.HK): Structural rebound or stabilization? In the warrant market, investors hold call warrants at 16.9 yuan.

Great Wall Motor is currently trading at 13.45 yuan, rebounding from a recent low of 11.78 yuan and has now moved back above 13 yuan. Based on this relatively clear range of movement, the main fluctuation range can initially be seen between 11.78 yuan to 14.50 yuan, with an overall volatility of approximately 23.1%, indicating a somewhat elastic range-bound movement. In terms of the current price position, the share price has recovered from the lower half of the range to the upper middle part, reflecting a noticeable improvement in short-term sentiment, but it hasn't truly reclaimed the previous high of 14.50 yuan. Therefore, at this stage, it's closer to challenging resistance after a rebound rather than having fully confirmed a return to a one-sided uptrend. On the support side, look first at 13 yuan to 12.90 yuan, which is the initial support area after the recent rise; next, look at 12.60 yuan to 12.30 yuan, near the recent consolidation zone and the intersection of short-term moving averages. A breakdown here would indicate that the rebound structure will weaken again. On the resistance side, look at 13.50 yuan to 13.80 yuan, as the current price is approaching this range; if it breaks through, the next level to watch would be the more obvious previous top resistance zone of 14.20 yuan to 14.50 yuan.

In terms of technical status, the moving averages are still entangled, indicating that although there has been a rebound in the stock price, the medium-short term structure has not yet developed into a clear and clean upward trend. The relative strength index has returned to the stronger zone, reflecting that short-term buying has regained dominance, but it hasn't reached an extremely overheated one-sided surge state. The Bollinger Bands show narrowing followed by expansion, and the stock price is also close to the upper band, which usually indicates an increase in short-term momentum, but it also suggests that the current price is no longer in a low-risk area. If the uptrend cannot continue, profit-taking pressure will emerge quickly.

To determine whether the stock price transitions from a structural rebound to stabilization, the key trigger condition is clear: it must first effectively break through 13.50 yuan to 13.80 yuan and then stabilize above it, preferably advancing towards 14.20 yuan to 14.50 yuan continuously instead of relying on a single-day spike. If this is achieved, the market can say that it's no longer just a technical rebound from the lows but starting to establish a clearer stabilization structure. Conversely, if the stock price rebounds but remains constrained below 13.50 yuan to 13.80 yuan, even pulling back upon touching it, it should still be considered a rebound within the range rather than a true trend reversal.

On the downside risk, the trigger conditions are equally straightforward. If the stock price falls back below 13 yuan, it indicates that short-term support is weakening; if it further breaks down below 12.60 yuan to 12.30 yuan, it means this round of rebound rhythm is disrupted, and the market will likely retest the 12 yuan area or even move closer to the recent low of 11.78 yuan. Since the current stock price is near the upper Bollinger Band, insufficient follow-up buying power could easily lead to profit-taking, causing the trend to revert to range-bound fluctuations. Thus, it cannot be assumed that the stock has fully stabilized just because of a one-day surge.

To directly address investors' questions, the current situation is better described as 'attempting to stabilize after a rebound,' rather than having fully confirmed stability. The reason is that although the stock price has returned above 13 yuan and technical indicators have improved, the moving averages are still entangled. The resistance levels between 13.50 yuan to 13.80 yuan and 14.20 yuan to 14.50 yuan remain two key obstacles to overcome. As for investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 16.9 yuan, this level remains significantly out-of-the-money compared to the current price of 13.45 yuan. While the underlying stock is still in the rebound phase and hasn't entered a real breakout acceleration stage, these deep out-of-the-money call warrants may not fully track the stock’s upward movement due to low sensitivity to short-term price changes, while also facing time decay.

Overall, Great Wall Motor's short-term attractiveness has improved, but it is still in a 'wait-and-see for confirmation of a breakout' pattern, and cannot yet be viewed as being in a stable upward trend. If the stock can effectively stabilize above 13.80 yuan, its short-term attractiveness will increase further; if it fails to break through and falls back, this round is more likely just a structural rebound. In other words, if investors ask whether this is a rebound or stabilization, the most accurate answer is: the stock is currently at a critical juncture transitioning from rebound to stabilization, but it has not been officially confirmed yet.

2. HSBC Holdings (00005.HK): Investors are asking whether the stock will fall back to 125 yuan or rise to challenge 135 yuan in the short term— which scenario is more likely? Investors should pay attention to Put warrants.

HSBC Holdings closed at 130.00 yuan, with its short-term trend gradually shifting from the previous pullback to sideways consolidation before attempting higher levels. Looking at the recent clearer trading range, the significant high is 144.48 yuan, and the recent low is 118.50 yuan, resulting in an overall volatility of about 21.9%. However, focusing on short-term trading, the market's attention has narrowed down to the tug-of-war zone between 125 yuan, 132 yuan, and 135 yuan. On the support side, the first level to watch is 127.50 yuan to 126.20 yuan, near the short-term moving average cluster and recent recovery zone. Below that is the psychologically important 125 yuan level, which is also a key short-term inflection point. On the resistance side, the immediate focus is 131.30 yuan to 132 yuan, given that this represents the intraday high and a recent pressure area. A breakout above this could lead to a test of 135 yuan, which is the key target mentioned by investors.

From a technical perspective, the moving averages are currently tangled, indicating that while there are signs of stabilization in the stock price, a clear one-sided uptrend has not yet formed in the medium to short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a relatively strong zone, suggesting that short-term buying pressure has a slight edge, though it is not overly overheated, meaning there is still room for further upward movement, albeit without very strong momentum. The Bollinger Bands are showing signs of narrowing, with the stock price close to the upper band, typically signaling that the stock is preparing to choose a direction. The bias is slightly upward, but if a breakout doesn’t occur, a pullback from near the upper band remains possible.

If the stock is to challenge 135 yuan, the trigger condition is clear: the price must first effectively break through the resistance zone at 131.30 yuan to 132 yuan, and this shouldn’t be just a single-day spike—it needs to stabilize and stay above 130 yuan consistently. Only then would the market have grounds to push the target towards 135 yuan. If the price merely spikes intraday but closes back below 130 yuan, it indicates that selling pressure above remains strong, and 135 yuan would remain a resistance target rather than an imminent price.

On the downside risk, the trigger conditions are equally clear. If the stock fails to break through 132 yuan and falls back below the support zone of 127.50 yuan to 126.20 yuan, it would signal weakening stabilization momentum. A further breakdown below 125 yuan would likely confirm a failed short-term rebound, potentially leading to a retest of 123 yuan or even lower levels. In other words, 125 yuan is not just a psychological round number—it’s a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces. A breakdown below this level would significantly worsen short-term sentiment.

To directly respond to investors’ questions about whether the stock will fall back to 125 yuan or rise to challenge 135 yuan in the short term, I believe there’s a slightly higher probability of testing 132 yuan and possibly moving closer to 135 yuan, though the advantage isn’t overwhelming. The reason is that the current price of 130 yuan is already above the short-term moving averages, and the RSI is relatively strong, with the price near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a bias toward testing resistance rather than immediately weakening. However, since the moving averages are still entangled, this is not a very clear strong trend. Thus, while the likelihood of testing 135 yuan is somewhat higher, the possibility of a pullback to 125 yuan upon a failed breakout cannot be ignored.

Regarding investors considering Put warrants, this direction isn’t entirely unreasonable, but from the current short-term rhythm, it isn’t the most advantageous position. The market is still biased toward testing resistance, so deploying a bearish strategy too early could result in the stock first pushing toward 132 yuan or higher, putting short-term pressure on Put warrants. A more reasonable approach is to treat the 132 yuan to 135 yuan range as the key observation zone. If the stock tests this range and clearly faces resistance, followed by a drop below 127.50 yuan to 126.20 yuan, that would clarify the value of bearish positioning. Overall, the current short-term outlook is not definitively bearish, and is closer to a 'testing resistance first, then seeing if a breakout occurs' pattern.

3. Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK): Investors are asking if 14 yuan is the bottom. If it holds and doesn’t fall, can it return to 17 yuan? They hold call warrants with an exercise price of 17.72 yuan.

Yanzhou Energy is currently trading at HK$14.57. After a short-term pullback from the high of HK$17.42, it has tested near the HK$14 range, with the latest price sitting in a relatively critical support zone. If we look at the recent more pronounced trading range, the stock can be viewed as fluctuating between HK$10.77 and HK$17.42, with an overall volatility of approximately 61.7%, making it a relatively volatile stock. Focusing on the nearer short-term trend, the area around HK$14 is indeed the most important short-term watershed at this stage. In terms of support levels, first consider the range of HK$14.05 to HK$14.00, as the stock price is already close to this area, and the lower Bollinger Band is also nearby; if it breaks below that, the next support level would be the HK$13.34 to HK$13 region, which is near the mid-term moving averages and the previous uptrend’s support zone. As for resistance levels, first look at HK$15.40 to HK$15.65, which is near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages; if it can break through further, then there will be potential to target HK$16.70 to HK$17.42.

From a technical perspective, the short-term moving averages have started to weaken, with the 5-day line crossing below the 10-day line, and the share price falling back below several short-term moving averages, reflecting a noticeable cooling in short-term momentum. The 20-day line remains above, while the 30-day line and longer-period moving averages continue to rise, indicating that the foundation of the medium-term uptrend is not completely broken, but the stock is certainly in an adjustment phase in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated to a weaker zone, showing a significant weakening of buying momentum, and there are no strong rebound signals visible in the market yet. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price is now close to the lower band, which typically indicates that short-term selling pressure has been significantly released, but at the same time, it means that if the lower band is breached, the trend could accelerate downward rather than naturally stabilize.

To determine whether HK$14 is truly forming a bottom, the key is not just about "holding once," but the stock must stabilize above HK$14, then regain a foothold above HK$15.40 to HK$15.65 to signal a convincing shift toward strength. If it merely consolidates near HK$14 but fails to reclaim resistance from short-term moving averages above HK$15, then the current situation likely represents only a temporary pause after a deep correction, rather than confirmation of a true bottom. If it can effectively break through HK$15.65 and subsequently surpass HK$16.70, the market will then have the conditions to push toward HK$17. In other words, returning to HK$17 is not impossible, but the premise is that it must first recover the upper resistance levels one by one, rather than simply assuming that holding HK$14 will naturally lead back to HK$17.

In terms of downside risks, the triggering conditions are equally clear. If HK$14 is decisively breached, particularly with a close below the HK$14.00 to HK$14.05 support zone, it would indicate that the so-called bottom zone has failed to hold, and the stock could test the HK$13.34 to HK$13 region. If even this range cannot hold, then the entire mid-term uptrend built from the previous low would suffer more significant damage, and the market would no longer be in a phase of "adjusting before rising again" but would evolve into a deeper correction. The biggest issue at this stage is not whether the long-term trend is over, but that there is still no sufficiently clear reversal signal for the short-term downtrend.

To directly address investors' questions, HK$14 is currently only an important support level and cannot yet be definitively characterized as a confirmed bottom. It has the potential to become a bottom, but only if it holds firm and bounces back convincingly; otherwise, it is just a temporary pause in the decline. As for whether it can return to HK$17, technically there is room for such a move, but in the short term, it is not the most immediate possibility, as the stock is still constrained by short-term moving averages and momentum remains weak. It must first overcome HK$15.40 to HK$15.65, then aim for HK$16.70, before targeting the HK$17 range. In other words, returning to HK$17 is a subsequent goal, not something that can be immediately assumed after holding HK$14.

As for investors holding call warrants with a strike price of HK$17.72, this exercise price is considerably higher than the current price of HK$14.57, making them deep out-of-the-money. With the underlying stock still searching for support near HK$14 and weak short-term momentum, these call warrants are unlikely to perform well, as the underlying stock needs not only to stabilize but also to embark on a substantial upward movement for the product to benefit meaningfully. If the stock merely consolidates or rebounds weakly, these deep out-of-the-money call warrants are more prone to time decay, resulting in a weaker holding experience compared to the underlying stock itself.

Overall, Yanzhou Energy's short-term risk-reward ratio is currently in a phase of observing whether support holds, rather than having clearly turned stronger. There is some technical support near HK$14, but it is insufficient to conclusively determine a bottom has formed; returning to HK$17 is possible, but only after first reclaiming HK$15.65 and HK$16.70. For short-term traders, the most important thing at this stage is not to assume that HK$17 will return, but to see whether HK$14 can truly hold and whether the subsequent rebound can regain a foothold above short-term moving averages. $CIYKENR@EP2611A.P (27119.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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