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港股窩輪Jenny
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Has Alibaba's technical aspect bottomed out? Key support level contention and short-term rebound probability assessment

Alibaba's Qwen today officially released the domestically strongest coding model Qwen3.6-Plus, but the news failed to reverse the stock price's downward trend, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock fell more than 4%, hitting an intraday low of 117.5 yuan, marking a new low for the year, further distancing itself from all major moving averages. The current share price has clearly broken below MA10 (122.19 yuan), MA30 (131.98 yuan), and MA60 (146.21 yuan), indicating that both medium- and short-term trends are in a bearish arrangement pattern with significant downward pressure.
From the perspective of technical indicator structure, the individual stock has entered a deeply oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound brewing. Both the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R indicators show that the stock price is in a severely oversold condition, suggesting that short-term selling pressure is nearing full release. More notably, the CCI indicator has started showing initial signs of 'bottom divergence,' where the stock price hits a new low but the indicator does not follow suit—this pattern is often regarded as a forward-looking signal of potential reversal. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillation Indicator issued a clear buy signal, combined with the RSI falling to 35, multiple short-term indicators resonate to suggest that downside momentum is gradually waning.
However, mid-term trend indicators have yet to turn around, with the MACD maintaining a sell signal. The ADX indicator shows that the current downtrend still holds inertia, while Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Bollinger Bands analysis also point towards bears dominating. This means if a rebound occurs later, it will initially face substantial overhead resistance pressure. In terms of price levels, the primary support below stands at 114.7 yuan, which can be considered an important defense line for recent bulls; if it fails to hold effectively, a deeper support level at 104.7 yuan may come into play. Above, the key resistance sits at 126.7 yuan, corresponding to the lower edge of the previous consolidation platform and short-term average price pressure zones, making it challenging to break through. Stronger resistance lies at 134.5 yuan, aligning closely with the 30-day moving average position.
Overall, the buy signals from multiple oscillation indicators and the bottom divergence pattern provide a technical basis for short-term trading to anticipate a rebound. The preliminary estimate of a short-term rebound probability is approximately 53%. However, due to the comprehensive loss of major moving averages and bearish trend indicators, any rebound should temporarily be defined as a technical recovery movement. Its sustainability and rebound height still require further data verification. For professional investors, the current price has entered the observation zone for left-side positioning. Strict stop-loss discipline must be enforced in operations, with 114.7 yuan serving as a risk control reference. Attention should also focus on whether there will be significant volume breaking through the resistance at 126.7 yuan to confirm the validity of the rebound.
Alibaba's Qwen today officially released the domestically strongest coding model Qwen3.6-Plus, but the news failed to reverse the stock price's downward trend, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock fell more than 4%, hitting an intraday low of 117.5 yuan, marking a new low for the year, further distancing itself from all major moving averages. The current share price has clearly broken below MA10 (122.19 yuan), MA30 (131.98 yuan), and MA60 (146.21 yuan), indicating that both medium- and short-term trends are in a bearish arrangement pattern with significant downward pressure. From the perspective of technical indicator structure, the individual stock has entered a deeply oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound brewing. Both the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R indicators show that the stock price is in a severely oversold condition, suggesting that short-term selling pressure is nearing full release. More notably, the CCI indicator has started showing initial signs of 'bottom divergence,' where the stock price hits a new low but the indicator does not follow suit—this pattern is often regarded as a forward-looking signal of potential reversal. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillation Indicator issued a clear buy signal, combined with the RSI falling to 35, multiple short-term indicators resonate to suggest that downside momentum is gradually waning. However, mid-term trend indicators have yet to turn around, with the MACD maintaining a sell signal. The ADX indicator shows that the current downtrend still holds inertia, while Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Bollinger Bands analysis also point towards bears dominating. This means if a rebound occurs later, it will initially face substantial overhead resistance pressure. In terms of price levels, the primary support below...
Alibaba's Qwen today officially released the domestically strongest coding model Qwen3.6-Plus, but the news failed to reverse the stock price's downward trend, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock fell more than 4%, hitting an intraday low of 117.5 yuan, marking a new low for the year, further distancing itself from all major moving averages. The current share price has clearly broken below MA10 (122.19 yuan), MA30 (131.98 yuan), and MA60 (146.21 yuan), indicating that both medium- and short-term trends are in a bearish arrangement pattern with significant downward pressure. From the perspective of technical indicator structure, the individual stock has entered a deeply oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound brewing. Both the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R indicators show that the stock price is in a severely oversold condition, suggesting that short-term selling pressure is nearing full release. More notably, the CCI indicator has started showing initial signs of 'bottom divergence,' where the stock price hits a new low but the indicator does not follow suit—this pattern is often regarded as a forward-looking signal of potential reversal. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillation Indicator issued a clear buy signal, combined with the RSI falling to 35, multiple short-term indicators resonate to suggest that downside momentum is gradually waning. However, mid-term trend indicators have yet to turn around, with the MACD maintaining a sell signal. The ADX indicator shows that the current downtrend still holds inertia, while Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Bollinger Bands analysis also point towards bears dominating. This means if a rebound occurs later, it will initially face substantial overhead resistance pressure. In terms of price levels, the primary support below...
Goldman Sachs' latest research report on China's internet industry listed cloud computing and data center sectors as the top investment tracks. The core logic behind this is driven by the scaling up of enterprise-level AI applications and the continued popularity of consumer-facing AI assistants. These dual drivers are fueling continuous growth in AI computing power demand and token consumption, while cloud service providers’ resource pricing capabilities and token commercialization value are simultaneously improving. Key targets include $GDS-SW (09698.HK)$ 、 $21Vianet (VNET.US)$ , Alibaba, and $KINGSOFT CLOUD (03896.HK)$ 。
The second-ranked sector that received an upgrade is e-commerce and mobility platforms. The core rationale is based on the sector’s valuation having a margin of safety, with Q1 2026 industry operating data already showing signs of improvement. Key coverage includes $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ and $Full Truck Alliance (YMM.US)$ ). Gaming and entertainment rank as the third-priority track, supported by users increasingly spending more time on entertainment content, providing certainty for overall ad revenue growth within the sector. Core targets include Tencent $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ and $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ 。
Following the mention on March 30, 2026, Alibaba’s stock price rose cumulatively by 1.83% over two days. Correspondingly, bullish warrant products moved higher across the board, with UBS warrant 58597 rising by 16%, and UBS warrant 54592 increasing by 12%.
Alibaba's Qwen today officially released the domestically strongest coding model Qwen3.6-Plus, but the news failed to reverse the stock price's downward trend, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock fell more than 4%, hitting an intraday low of 117.5 yuan, marking a new low for the year, further distancing itself from all major moving averages. The current share price has clearly broken below MA10 (122.19 yuan), MA30 (131.98 yuan), and MA60 (146.21 yuan), indicating that both medium- and short-term trends are in a bearish arrangement pattern with significant downward pressure. From the perspective of technical indicator structure, the individual stock has entered a deeply oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound brewing. Both the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R indicators show that the stock price is in a severely oversold condition, suggesting that short-term selling pressure is nearing full release. More notably, the CCI indicator has started showing initial signs of 'bottom divergence,' where the stock price hits a new low but the indicator does not follow suit—this pattern is often regarded as a forward-looking signal of potential reversal. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillation Indicator issued a clear buy signal, combined with the RSI falling to 35, multiple short-term indicators resonate to suggest that downside momentum is gradually waning. However, mid-term trend indicators have yet to turn around, with the MACD maintaining a sell signal. The ADX indicator shows that the current downtrend still holds inertia, while Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Bollinger Bands analysis also point towards bears dominating. This means if a rebound occurs later, it will initially face substantial overhead resistance pressure. In terms of price levels, the primary support below...
If investors believe that Alibaba's oversold rebound signal will take effect and are optimistic about the stock price challenging resistance levels, they may consider call warrants. Among these, UBS call warrant (26541) and HSBC call warrant (26739) have the same exercise price of 137.09 yuan, offering approximately 8x actual leverage. Their advantage lies in relatively low premiums, which effectively mitigate the impact of time decay, making them suitable for betting on a short-term rebound.
Conversely, if it is judged that the rebound will lack momentum and the stock price will break below key support, extending the medium-term downtrend, put warrants can be considered. UBS put warrant (27306), with an exercise price of 99.95 yuan, provides around 3.1x leverage, making it the highest-leveraged product with relatively low premium. Another option, HSBC put warrant (27507), offers similar leverage and is noted for its relatively ideal implied volatility conditions.
For investors with a higher risk tolerance seeking greater leverage efficiency, bull and bear warrants can be considered. Bullish investors may look into two bull warrants: UBS bull warrant (68914), with a stop-loss price of 114.5 yuan, offering approximately 18.8x high actual leverage and low premium; and UBS bull warrant (58597), with a stop-loss price of 113 yuan, featuring the lowest premium among similar products and reaching 15.4x leverage. Bearish investors might consider bear warrants: Societe Generale bear warrant (68390) (stop-loss price 127 yuan, leverage approximately 12.9x) and UBS bear warrant (68765) (stop-loss price 128 yuan, leverage approximately 11.9x). The latter is highlighted as the choice with the highest actual leverage and lowest premium. Please note that bull and bear warrants have a mandatory stop-loss mechanism. If the related asset price hits the stop-loss level, the product will terminate immediately, potentially leading to significant losses.
Alibaba's Qwen today officially released the domestically strongest coding model Qwen3.6-Plus, but the news failed to reverse the stock price's downward trend, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock fell more than 4%, hitting an intraday low of 117.5 yuan, marking a new low for the year, further distancing itself from all major moving averages. The current share price has clearly broken below MA10 (122.19 yuan), MA30 (131.98 yuan), and MA60 (146.21 yuan), indicating that both medium- and short-term trends are in a bearish arrangement pattern with significant downward pressure. From the perspective of technical indicator structure, the individual stock has entered a deeply oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound brewing. Both the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R indicators show that the stock price is in a severely oversold condition, suggesting that short-term selling pressure is nearing full release. More notably, the CCI indicator has started showing initial signs of 'bottom divergence,' where the stock price hits a new low but the indicator does not follow suit—this pattern is often regarded as a forward-looking signal of potential reversal. Additionally, the Momentum Oscillation Indicator issued a clear buy signal, combined with the RSI falling to 35, multiple short-term indicators resonate to suggest that downside momentum is gradually waning. However, mid-term trend indicators have yet to turn around, with the MACD maintaining a sell signal. The ADX indicator shows that the current downtrend still holds inertia, while Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and Bollinger Bands analysis also point towards bears dominating. This means if a rebound occurs later, it will initially face substantial overhead resistance pressure. In terms of price levels, the primary support below...
Goldman Sachs ranked cloud computing as the top pick in the internet sector. Has Alibaba's current valuation fully reflected the long-term value of its AI business? If Alibaba subsequently tests the key support level at 114.7 yuan, do you think the stock price will find effective support at that level given the current industry logic? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HKStocks #Real-TimeAnalysis #WarrantSelection #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #Alibaba #09988 #TechStock$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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