HKEX Podcast Analysis: Ubtech Robotics stabilizing above HKD 100 is just the first step; breaking through HKD 106 is the key

As of April 2, Ubtech Robotics (09880) closed at HKD 102.4, up 2.4%, unchanged from the previous close. However, in the prior trading session, it recorded a significant increase of 17.10%, with a turnover of HKD 2.194 billion, successfully reclaiming the psychological level of HKD 100. From a technical perspective, the current share price has stabilized above the 10-day moving average (HKD 93.65), but remains pressured by the 30-day (HKD 109.02) and 60-day moving averages (HKD 117.47). The overall moving average system still shows a bearish pattern, reflecting that the stock is in a rebound phase within a downtrend. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is at 35, which, though still weak, has moved away from extreme lows. The VR turnover ratio indicator suggests 'oversold, possible bottom forming, buy,' while the bull-bear power indicator has also turned to 'buy,' indicating increased buying interest at lower levels.

Market news indicates that Ubtech Robotics, as a leading humanoid robotics company, has seen recent share price fluctuations primarily driven by expectations of industry policy support and technological breakthroughs. According to mainland media reports, the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a special meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development in the robotics industry, increasing market expectations for supportive policies. Additionally, Ubtech Robotics continues to make progress in its R&D efforts, with the market closely monitoring the commercialization progress of its humanoid robots in industrial and service scenarios. However, the company is still in an investment phase and profitability has yet to materialize, making the share price highly sensitive to market sentiment and capital flows.

April 1st [HK Stocks Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Ubtech Robotics, Hua Hong

In the April 1 episode of the HKEX Podcast, Ubtech Robotics was analyzed in detail. The host noted that Ubtech Robotics is currently priced at HKD 100, having fallen from a high of HKD 156.40 to a recent low of HKD 84.60. At this stage, the trading range can be viewed between HKD 84.60 and HKD 156.40, representing an overall fluctuation of approximately 84.9%, qualifying it as a high-volatility stock. The recent rebound from the lower range and reclamation of the HKD 100 mark indicate some easing of short-term selling pressure. However, the current level is insufficient to confirm a reversal of the overall weak structure. Technically, the moving averages remain downward-sloping, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages continuing to suppress the stock price, suggesting the stock is still in a rebound phase within a downtrend. Regarding Bollinger Bands, the price had been running near the lower band for an extended period, and the latest rebound from near the lower band represents a technical recovery after weakness. However, the price has not yet approached the upper band, indicating that while some rebound space has opened up, it has not entered a strong expansion phase.

Regarding key levels, the Podcast analyst emphasized that if Ubtech Robotics is to confirm stabilization above HKD 100 and further upside potential, the trigger conditions are clear: the price must not only briefly reclaim HKD 100 but sustainably stabilize above it while breaking through the resistance zone of HKD 103 to HKD 106.80, preferably accompanied by increased trading volume. This would signify that the rebound is more than just technical recovery and is beginning to challenge higher resistance levels. If the price can effectively break through HKD 106.80 and then stabilize above HKD 109 to HKD 110, the short-term rebound target could extend towards HKD 117. On the downside, if the price falls back below HKD 100 and loses support around HKD 97 to HKD 95, this would suggest that the current rally lacks sustainability and is merely a rebound within a weak trend. A drop below HKD 91 would increase the likelihood of retesting the recent low of HKD 84.60.

Responding to investor concerns about why call warrants with a strike price of HKD 163.9 are not tracking the underlying stock’s rise, the Podcast analyst explained that the strike price of HKD 163.9 is significantly out-of-the-money compared to the current price of HKD 100. When the underlying stock is merely experiencing a technical rebound without entering a clear uptrend, these deeply out-of-the-money call warrants are naturally less responsive to small rebounds. Coupled with time decay and changes in implied volatility, it's common for such products to show weak reaction despite the underlying stock’s rise. This suggests that the issue may not lie in the underlying stock’s lack of strength, but rather in the product itself being too far out-of-the-money, resulting in low sensitivity.

From a critical level analysis, the immediate support is at HKD 89.4, which marks the starting point of the recent rebound and serves as the first line of technical defense. A breach of this level would see the next support at HKD 85.6. On the upside, the initial resistance is at HKD 110.1, near the 30-day moving average. A breakout above this level could push the price towards HKD 116.2, near the 60-day moving average. The overall probability of an upward move is 53%, indicating that while there are conditions for a short-term rebound, the stock remains in a range-bound rebound pattern until it breaks through the HKD 110.1 resistance.

Reviewing the performance of warrant products, according to the products mentioned on March 30, driven by a 14.03% increase in the underlying stock over the following two trading days, UBS (64981) $UB#UBTECRC2612B.C (64981.HK)$ Bull certificate recorded a 67% increase, fully demonstrating the high leverage characteristics of bull certificates during rebound rallies, effectively capturing gains from the underlying stock's recovery from its lows.

In terms of product deployment, if investors believe that Ubtech Robotics can stabilize above the support level of 89.4 yuan and further challenge resistance levels at 110.1 yuan and 116.2 yuan, they may consider two call warrants. BNP Paribas call warrant (27717) $BPUBTEC@EC2609A.C (27717.HK)$ The exercise price is 108.78 yuan, with an effective leverage of 2.9 times; its premium and implied volatility are the lowest among similar products, meaning the product price is less affected by time decay and changes in market volatility expectations, with pricing closer to intrinsic value. This product’s exercise price is close to the first resistance level of 110.1 yuan, suitable for investors expecting the stock price to gradually advance towards 110 yuan after breaking through 100 yuan, with 2.9 times leverage providing steady profit amplification during stock rebounds.

Bank of China call warrant (27768) $BIUBTEC@EC2609B.C (27768.HK)$ The exercise price is 108.98 yuan, with an effective leverage of 2.6 times, the highest among similar products, and relatively low implied volatility. This product also targets the 110 yuan range, and its higher leverage makes it suitable for investors expecting a stronger rebound, providing more significant profit amplification when the underlying stock breaks upward. The exercise prices of both call warrants align with the resistance range of 109-110 yuan mentioned in the Podcast, reflecting how the product design corresponds with key technical analysis levels.

If investors expect Ubtech Robotics' rebound to weaken or believe the stock will retest lower support levels, they may consider Huatai put warrant (21252). $HUUBTEC@EP2606A.P (21252.HK)$ This product has an exercise price of 98.8 yuan and an effective leverage of 2.2 times, the highest among similar products. Its exercise price is slightly below the current underlying stock price, making it a slightly out-of-the-money put warrant with higher sensitivity to declines in the underlying stock. This product suits investors anticipating a retreat in share price after a failed rebound, targeting a retest of support levels at 89.4 yuan or even 85.6 yuan.

It should be noted that Ubtech Robotics’ technical indicators still show weakness overall, with the moving average system indicating a bearish trend. The sustainability of short-term rebounds remains uncertain. If the stock fails to hold above the 100 yuan level and falls below the support zone of 97-95 yuan, this would indicate insufficient rebound momentum, significantly increasing pressure on holding positions for the aforementioned call warrants. Investors should closely monitor the 89.4 yuan level as a key reference point while strictly controlling position sizes. Additionally, the Podcast analyst reminds that, at this stage, if considering short-term trading, the most reasonable judgment isn't solely based on surpassing 100 yuan to turn bullish entirely but acknowledging that the stock is rebounding from a weak position. Whether it truly has the strength to rise further must await a breakout above the 106 yuan resistance.

Overall, Ubtech Robotics is currently in a phase of 'technical rebound amid medium-term weakness.' There is a higher likelihood of short-term fluctuations within the range of 89.4 yuan to 110.1 yuan. The ideal strategy is to wait for a clear breakout above the 110.1 yuan resistance or a breakdown below the 89.4 yuan support before taking corresponding positions. When operating within this range, strict position control and setting reasonable stop-loss levels are essential.

Interactive Q&A:

Do you think Ubtech Robotics, after stabilizing at 100 yuan, can break through the short-term resistance at 110 yuan?

A. It can break through; policy expectations and sector sentiment will drive the stock price.

B. Difficult to break through; medium-term moving average pressure will limit gains.

C. First consolidate with volatility in the range of 90 yuan to 110 yuan.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis provided may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only reflects whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be evaluated comprehensively with additional information and decisions should not be based solely on this article. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's Warrants for more professional insights on Hong Kong stocks.

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