[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Ubtech Robotics, Hua Hong Semiconductor, RemeGen, Nio, China Eastern Airlines - Post-market analysis for April 1st

Bullish investors believe the decline will halt at the top of the descending channel, and the index will rise to 25,550 points; some investors expect a sharp drop in the closing session, with a gap filling tomorrow, down by 500 points. Watch overnight bear certificates with a stop-loss price of 25,800.

The Hang Seng Index currently closed at 25,294 points and remains in the consolidation phase after retreating from 28,056 points. Based on recent visible volatility, the main trading range can initially be seen as between 24,203 and 28,056 points, with overall volatility approximately 15.9%. At current price levels, although the index has rebounded from the earlier low of 24,203 points, it still hasn’t returned to the mid-term key resistance zone, indicating that the overall situation has not yet broken away from the weak pattern. On the support side, look first at 25,000 to 24,900 points since this level is close to the short-term sideways tussle area and near the 250-day line. If this support fails, the next support level would fall back to 24,470 to 24,203 points. On the resistance side, focus first on 25,370 to 25,500 points, which is near the 20-day line and Bollinger Bands' middle axis, also a position prone to pressure during recent rebounds. If it moves higher, the next resistance will be in the region of 25,700 to 25,800 points.

In terms of technical status, the short to medium-term moving averages are still biased downward, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day lines still pressuring above the index, reflecting that although there may be short-term rebounds, the structure hasn't turned strong. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral-to-weak level, having recently rebounded to around 50, indicating that selling pressure has eased somewhat compared to before but isn’t enough to confirm a trend reversal. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the index previously rebounded after nearing the lower band, and now has returned to the middle-lower position, showing that the sharpest phase of the decline has temporarily slowed, but there’s no clear upward expansion yet. Overall, it's more about technical repair in a weak state rather than entering a one-sided uptrend.

For a clearer upward movement to occur, the trigger condition must be that the index stabilizes above 25,370 points first, then effectively breaks through the 25,500 to 25,550 resistance zone, and does so not just via short-term intraday spikes but by closing firmly above these levels. This would indicate the index has a chance to officially break free from the pressure at the top of the short-term descending channel and further test 25,700 or even 25,800 points. If it fails to break through near 25,500 points and declines again, it would only be a resistance encounter within the rebound, insufficient to confirm a reversal of the short-term direction.

Regarding downside risks, the trigger conditions are clear: if the index once again falls below 25,000 points and breaches 24,900 points, it means the short-term rebound structure has been broken, and the market will again turn to testing the 24,470 or even 24,203 point lows. If it drops below 24,203 points, the overall weakness will deepen significantly, signaling not just filling a short-term gap but representing the start of a new round of declines. In other words, what truly needs to be guarded against isn't a single-day emotional drop but whether the 25,000 point defense line can hold.

As for investors' views, the judgment that the downtrend channel top could lead to a rebound target of 25,550 points has some technical basis because the range between 25,000 and 25,550 points is the most direct short-term resistance area. Setting this as a rebound target is reasonable, but it should not be considered a confirmed upward breakout since the moving averages are not yet aligned. Medium-term pressure remains; if the index fails to stabilize above 25,550 points, reaching that zone may more likely result in a pullback. Another investor believes the sharp drop in the closing session means a gap-up the next day followed by a 500-point decline. This view seems overly aggressive. A weak close alone isn’t enough to conclude that there will definitely be a 500-point plunge the next day, as there’s still preliminary support near the 25,000-point level unless both 25,000 and 24,900 are quickly breached at the open. Otherwise, predicting a 500-point drop directly is an aggressive and subjective call. Regarding holding bearish warrants with a recovery price of 25,800 overnight, the logic is to bet on a pullback from resistance between 25,500 and 25,800. While this direction isn't entirely unreasonable, the issue is that 25,800 isn’t far enough from current prices. If the index rebounds to test 25,550 or even 25,700 first, risk in these bearish warrants will rise rapidly. Therefore, such strategies are better considered only after confirming resistance, rather than rushing based on an end-of-day dip.

Overall, the short-term risk-reward ratio is neutral to slightly conservative, not presenting a one-sided clear trend. At current levels, if betting on a rebound, the risk-reward ratio would be based on holding firm around 25,000 points, with a short-term target between 25,500 and 25,550 points; if betting on a decline, a breach below 24,900 points would signal momentum. The least advantageous approach at this stage would be to take an overly subjective position in the middle of support and resistance. A more reasonable judgment would first consider whether 25,000 points can hold, then whether 25,550 points can be broken. Whichever level is effectively breached first will indicate the short-term direction.

2. Ubtech Robotics (09880.HK): Holding steady above the 100-yuan mark, does it have room to grow further? In the warrant market, investors noted that call warrants with a strike price of 163.9 yuan aren't tracking the upside.

Ubtech Robotics is currently trading at 100 yuan. After falling from a high of 156.40 yuan earlier, recent lows have been seen around 84.60 yuan. Using this main fluctuation range, the current trading band can initially be viewed as between 84.60 and 156.40 yuan, reflecting an overall volatility of approximately 84.9%, characteristic of a highly volatile stock. From a short-term trading perspective, the recent rebound off the lows and reclamation of the psychological 100-yuan level suggests easing selling pressure. However, this doesn't confirm an overall reversal of the downtrend yet. Support levels to watch are the 97-95 yuan region, which aligns with recent post-rebound consolidation. Below that, the 91-yuan level marks a closer low; breaking it would risk revisiting the 84.60-yuan low. On the resistance side, initial focus is on 103 to 106.80 yuan, where the 250-day moving average lies, representing significant short-term rebound resistance. Breaking through that, the next resistance levels are 109-110 yuan, with further challenges posed by the 20-day and 30-day moving averages near 100.68 yuan and 109 yuan, respectively.

Technically, moving averages remain downward sloping, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and longer-term averages still pressing down on the price, indicating the stock remains in a rebound phase within a downtrend and hasn’t completed a trend reversal. Short-term RSI has surged above 50 from weaker levels, signaling improved buying momentum, though medium-term RSI hasn’t fully turned bullish. Thus, a fair assessment is short-term warming but medium-term weakness persists. Bollinger Bands show that after prolonged trading near the lower band, the latest rebound off this level reflects technical recovery, though the upper band remains distant, indicating limited upside potential before entering a strong expansion phase.

To confirm whether standing firm above 100 yuan indicates further upside potential, key triggers are clear: the stock must sustainably hold above 100 yuan and break through the 103-106.80 yuan resistance zone, ideally with increased volume, showing this isn’t just technical repair but genuine challenge of higher resistance. Successfully breaking 106.80 yuan and stabilizing above 109-110 yuan sets conditions to push rebound targets toward 117 yuan, near the upper Bollinger Band. In other words, while 100 yuan is the first step, the true determinant of further upside is breaking the moving average resistance above 106 yuan.

Downside risks have equally clear triggers. A drop back below 100 yuan and failure to hold the 97-95 yuan support zone would suggest the recent rally lacks follow-through and is merely a bounce in a downtrend, turning sentiment bearish again. Further drops below 91 yuan raise chances of retesting the 84.60-yuan low. Losing 84.60 yuan confirms the downtrend, worsening short-term reward-risk dynamics.

Directly addressing investors’ question about whether staying above 100 yuan signals further upside potential: the answer is possible but unconfirmed. The 100-yuan mark is a psychological threshold and the first hurdle for short-term stabilization, but the real test is breaking the 103-106.80 yuan resistance zone. Without surpassing this range, even holding 100 yuan might only mean sideways consolidation before renewed pressure. Regarding the warrant market, complaints that call warrants with a 163.9-yuan strike price don't track gains are reasonable since 163.9 yuan is deeply out-of-the-money, far from the current 100-yuan price. When the underlying merely bounces technically without entering a clear uptrend, such deep out-of-the-money calls are inherently insensitive to small rebounds. Add time decay and implied volatility changes, and it’s natural for the warrant to show weak response despite underlying gains. Hence, using such products to judge underlying strength easily leads to incorrect conclusions—it's not necessarily about the underlying being weak but the product itself being too out-of-the-money with insufficient sensitivity.

In summary, Ubtech Robotics' short-term reward-risk profile has improved compared to a few days ago but remains neutral to cautious. A bullish stance depends on sustaining above 100 yuan and breaking 106.80 yuan; a bearish stance hinges on dropping back below 97-95 yuan. Presently, from a short-term trading perspective, the most reasonable judgment isn’t turning outright bullish just because it crossed 100 yuan but acknowledging it’s rebounding from a weak zone. Confirmation of real upside potential requires breaking resistance above 106 yuan.

3. Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK): Investors expect the stock to continue surging past 90 yuan. Attention is on bullish warrants with a recovery price of 68 yuan.

Huahong Semiconductor is currently trading at HKD 83.65. After retreating from its previous high of HKD 124, it recently bottomed out at HKD 77.40. If we consider this movement as the primary short-term observation range, the stock can be viewed as consolidating within a large range between HKD 77.40 and HKD 124, with overall volatility of approximately 60.2%, making it a highly volatile stock. Focusing on the recent short-term trend, after finding support at HKD 77.40, the price rebounded and has now returned above HKD 83, but remains in a post-decline recovery pattern. On the support side, first look at HKD 82 to HKD 81.50, which is close to the closing price and represents the first level of support for whether the stock can stabilize after a short-term rebound; below that, there’s HKD 80 to HKD 77.40, a more noticeable low point area. A break below this would deepen the weakness. On the resistance side, first look at HKD 86.30 to HKD 87.70, as this area is near both the 120-day and 20-day moving averages, and also the initial pressure point for a short-term rebound. If it breaks through, the next resistance level will be around HKD 90.40, near the 30-day moving average, and only then could it have the conditions to challenge the HKD 95 to HKD 96.80 region.

In terms of technical conditions, the moving averages are still trending downward overall, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and longer-term moving averages generally remaining above the stock price or exerting downward pressure, indicating that the medium- and short-term trends have not fully reversed. Regarding the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI has rebounded to near 50, reflecting some easing of selling pressure compared to before, but it hasn’t reached a clearly strong level yet. Therefore, the most accurate assessment is neutral-to-weak with some technical rebound. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the stock price had been near the lower band for a long time, and while it has rebounded from the lower band, it has not yet approached the middle band, nor is there any sign of upward expansion in the channel. Therefore, the current stage is still a recovery after weakness, rather than entering a one-sided uptrend.

For a clearer upward movement to occur, the triggering conditions must be quite specific: the stock price needs to first stabilize above the resistance zone of HKD 86.30 to HKD 87.70, and then effectively break through the pressures near HKD 90 and HKD 90.40. It’s important that the stock doesn’t just momentarily pierce these levels intraday but closes above them. This would indicate that the short-term rebound is transitioning into a real breakout. Only if this happens would the market have the basis to push the next target above HKD 95. In other words, breaking through HKD 90 isn’t just about briefly surging past it; the stock must first penetrate through a dense cluster of moving average resistances and then stabilize above HKD 90 to truly open up upside potential.

On the downside risk, the triggering conditions are equally clear. If the stock price falls back below the support zone of HKD 82 to HKD 81.50, it would mean that this round of rebound lacks sufficient buying power, and the stock will weaken again in the short term. If it further breaks below HKD 80, the market will likely retest the recent low of HKD 77.40. Once HKD 77.40 is breached, it would confirm the continuation of weakness, at which point not only will the short-term target of HKD 90 be out of reach, but the current rebound structure will also be disrupted.

Responding directly to investors' views, expecting the stock price to continue rising and break through HKD 90 is not entirely unreasonable because the stock has indeed rebounded from the low of HKD 77.40 and is now trading above HKD 83, improving the short-term sentiment compared to when it was at the lows. However, judging from the current price of HKD 83.65 that it will smoothly break through HKD 90 is still premature, as the range between HKD 86 and HKD 90 already represents a continuous resistance zone, not just a single barrier at HKD 90. To confidently predict a breakout, we must wait for the stock price to first stabilize near HKD 87 and then confirm an effective breakthrough above HKD 90, making the judgment more solid. As for bullish warrants targeting a recovery price of HKD 68, they represent a strategy based on the expectation of a continued rebound. While HKD 68 is still some distance from the current price, providing a seemingly reasonable buffer, such products ultimately rely on the assumption that the stock price won’t weaken again. If the price fails to break through HKD 86 to HKD 87 and instead retreats, or even drops below HKD 80 again, although the bull warrants may not face immediate forced closure risks, their attractiveness will significantly diminish. Therefore, this type of deployment is not completely unconsiderable, but the premise is that investors must accept that this phase is still early in the rebound and not a confirmed reversal.

In general, Hua Hong Semiconductor’s short-term risk-reward ratio is currently neutral to cautious, improving somewhat from lower levels but not yet showing significant strength. The basis for optimism would be if the share price consistently holds above HKD 82 and further breaks through HKD 87 and HKD 90; pessimism would stem from breaking below HKD 80 or even HKD 77.40 again. The most reasonable assessment at this stage isn’t to simply expect it to break through HKD 90 continuously, but to recognize that it is in a phase of weak rebound testing resistance. Only a successful breakout would significantly shift the risk-reward ratio in favor; until then, chasing too aggressively carries risks.

4. RemeGen (09995.HK): Investors are asking if it’s too high to enter now? With a surge in volume and price, can it break through the previous peak of HKD 126.6? Pay attention to the call warrant with an exercise price of HKD 120.99.

RemeGen is currently trading at HKD 110.4, having rebounded repeatedly from a recent low of HKD 69.7, and has now approached the short-term high of HKD 111.5. Observing this upward wave as the main range, it can be viewed as fluctuating between HKD 69.7 and HKD 111.5, with an overall volatility of approximately 60%, making it a highly volatile stock. Looking at a broader picture, the more significant mid-term resistance above remains at HKD 126.6. Therefore, although the current price is not low, it hasn't truly reached the previous peak. On the support side, first look at the range of HKD 107 to HKD 104.5, which is near the pullback area after the short-term breakout, and also close to the upper Bollinger Band's digestion zone. Further down, look at HKD 100.5 to HKD 97.5, which is the short-term support zone near the 10-day and 5-day moving averages. Regarding resistance levels, focus on the short-term high of HKD 111.5 that was just touched; if broken, the next target would be the psychological resistance zone of HKD 115 to HKD 120, followed by the more critical previous peak at HKD 126.6.

From a technical standpoint, the moving average structure is clearly upward, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines generally forming a bullish alignment, reflecting continued upward momentum. On the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI has risen into a stronger zone, indicating a significant increase in buying momentum, but also suggesting that recent gains have been rapid, meaning heightened volatility should not be ignored when entering positions. Regarding Bollinger Bands, the share price has approached or even surged toward the upper band, with signs of the band widening upwards, usually indicating strong upward momentum. However, this also suggests that blindly chasing prices at the most exuberant point may not be suitable in the short term because once the uptrend slows, consolidation at higher levels is likely to occur first.

To confirm that the stock price still has the power to move higher, the triggering condition is clear: it must first effectively break through the recent high of HKD 111.5, not just briefly surge intraday and retreat, but instead close steadily above it with sustained volume expansion, indicating that capital is willing to absorb shares at higher levels. If HKD 111.5 is broken and held firmly, the likelihood of testing HKD 115 to HKD 120 increases significantly; if the area around HKD 120 can be digested, advancing towards HKD 126.6 becomes much more reasonable. In other words, HKD 126.6 is not a target that can be directly confirmed with a simple “high-volume surge” at this stage, but requires breaking through the two key levels of HKD 111.5 and HKD 120 step-by-step for the uptrend to continue to that level.

Regarding downside risks, the triggering conditions are equally clear. If the stock fails to break through HKD 111.5 and quickly falls below HKD 107, it indicates insufficient short-term buying power, and the uptrend would enter consolidation. If the support zone between HKD 104.5 and HKD 100.5 is breached, it signals that the momentum from the recent sharp rise is beginning to noticeably retreat, increasing the likelihood of a pullback to test the middle Bollinger Band at around HKD 97.5 or even HKD 91.4. In other words, the biggest risk now isn’t that the trend has worsened, but rather that after a rapid short-term rise, a deeper-than-usual normal retracement might occur.

To directly address investors' concerns about whether it's too high to enter now, the answer is that compared to the low of 69.7 yuan, the current level is certainly not low, and the cost of chasing in has clearly risen; thus, it cannot be described as 'cheap.' However, from a trend perspective, the current situation isn't purely an uncontrollable chase upwards since the moving averages are trending upward, RSI is on the stronger side, and prices are near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating the stock is indeed in a strong phase. The position has shifted from a low accumulation zone into a breakout momentum zone. It’s not that this position can’t be bought, but one must accept that short-term volatility will be significant, and waiting for clearer breakout signals would be more reasonable. As for whether it can break through the previous high of 126.6 yuan, I’d say there’s a chance, but it’s still too early to draw definitive conclusions. A more reasonable judgment would be to first see if 111.5 yuan can be effectively broken, then observe whether there is sufficient support around 120 yuan. If these two levels are steadily held, challenging 126.6 yuan becomes feasible. If 111.5 yuan fails to break and quickly falls back below 107 yuan, discussing 126.6 yuan remains premature.

As for investors’ focus on call warrants with a strike price of 120.99 yuan, this idea is generally reasonable because 120.99 yuan is not far from the current price, making it relatively close to the target area above. If the underlying stock truly breaks through 111.5 yuan and moves toward 120 yuan, such products theoretically should reflect the underlying stock’s rise well. However, it’s important to note that the current price is still some distance away from 120.99 yuan. If the underlying stock merely oscillates at high levels without a quick upward breakout, the product's performance may not be as sensitive as investors expect. Therefore, the key isn’t just whether the product's strike price is attractive but whether the underlying stock itself completes its breakout first.

Overall, Rongchang Bio’s short-term risk-reward ratio remains positive, but it’s no longer the high-risk-reward scenario associated with buying at lower levels. Instead, we’ve entered a phase where 'breakouts are worth chasing, while failure to break calls for caution against pullbacks.' If 111.5 yuan is effectively broken, the short-term risk-reward ratio will remain high, providing conditions to gradually aim for 120 yuan or even 126.6 yuan. But if one chases without a breakout, the risk-reward ratio will significantly drop due to nearby overhead resistance and potential downside retreat. At this stage, the most reasonable conclusion isn’t simply saying “it’s too high to buy” or asserting “a previous high will definitely be broken.” Rather, one must acknowledge that this is a strong stock, but the truly worthy position for optimism lies after breaking 111.5 yuan, not blindly ignoring pullback risks solely because of today’s surge in trading volume.

5, Nio-SW (09866.HK): At the current level, should we continue holding the call warrants, or is it better to exit? What is the volatility range? Keep an eye on call warrants with a strike price of 56.9 yuan.

Nio-SW is currently trading at HKD 48.38, having rebounded from a recent low of HKD 34.82 and reaching a new high of HKD 49.04. In the short term, it has clearly approached the recent peak level. If we consider this upward trend as the primary observation range for now, the trading range can initially be viewed between HKD 34.82 and HKD 49.04, with an overall volatility of approximately 40.8%, indicating relatively high fluctuations. From a more short-term trading perspective, the current practical short-term fluctuation range could be between HKD 43.80 and HKD 49.04, as the area around HKD 44 has been repeatedly tested and stabilized recently, while HKD 49.04 represents significant resistance. On the support side, the initial focus is on the HKD 47 to HKD 45.70 range, which is close to the short-term moving averages and recent consolidation zone; below that, attention shifts to HKD 44.16 to HKD 43.80, due to its proximity to the 20-day line and the mid-support zone of the recent recovery structure. Regarding resistance levels, the immediate focus is on the recent high of HKD 49.04; if broken, the next target would be testing the HKD 51 to HKD 51.03 range, near the upper Bollinger Band, before gradually challenging higher levels.

From a technical standpoint, the moving average structure is clearly upward-trending, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines roughly aligned upward, reflecting the continuation of the recent uptrend. The relative strength index is at a relatively strong level, indicating short-term momentum is still present, but also showing that the stock is no longer at a low price. Investors need to accept that fluctuations may increase when chasing in. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price is now close to the upper band, with signs of the channel widening upward. This indicates that the trend remains strong but also shows that the stock has reached a relatively elevated short-term position. If it fails to break out immediately, it’s likely to consolidate at high levels first.

To confirm that the stock price still has the power to move higher, the triggering condition is clear: it must first effectively break through HKD 49.04, not just temporarily surpass it intraday, but close firmly above it, ideally with corresponding trading volume, indicating that capital is willing to absorb shares at higher levels. If HKD 49.04 is genuinely broken, the next step would be to test near HKD 51, after which further upside potential could be explored. In other words, chasing near current prices offers a less favorable risk-reward ratio compared to earlier stages of the rally. What truly enhances the short-term risk-reward ratio is continuation after breaking HKD 49.04, rather than merely staying near current elevated levels.

Regarding downside risks, the trigger conditions are equally clear. If the stock fails to break through 49.04 yuan and instead drops below the 47-yuan to 45.70-yuan support zone, it would signify that short-term chasing capital is beginning to retreat, shifting the trend from aggressive upward movement to consolidation at high levels. If it further breaches the 44.16-yuan to 43.80-yuan range, it suggests the rhythm of this rally is being disrupted, potentially leading to a retracement towards the 40-yuan level or even lower support zones. Therefore, the biggest risk at the moment isn’t an immediate reversal of the major trend, but that the stock is already near its recent high. If the breakout fails, the short-term pullback space could be significant.

To directly respond to investors’ questions about whether to keep or exit the call warrants at the current level, the key isn’t just whether the underlying stock remains strong today but whether 49.04 yuan can be broken. If the underlying stock effectively breaks through 49.04 yuan and stabilizes, there’s reason to continue holding the call warrants since the underlying stock might push the uptrend towards 51 yuan, giving the product more extended performance. However, if the underlying stock consistently fails to break through 49.04 yuan or even retreats below 47 yuan to 45.70 yuan, the risk-reward ratio of holding the call warrants will noticeably decline. This is because, during consolidation, warrant prices often suffer not only from pullbacks in the underlying stock but also from time decay. As for investors focusing on call warrants with a strike price of 56.9 yuan, this strike price is significantly higher than the current price, making it an out-of-the-money strategy. If the underlying stock merely consolidates between 48 yuan and 49 yuan, the tracking ability of such products may not be ideal. They’re more suitable if the underlying stock not only breaks 49.04 yuan but also pushes toward 51 yuan or higher. Otherwise, the warrant’s performance could disappoint despite limited declines in the underlying stock.

As for your question about the range of fluctuation, if we consider the entire primary upward wave at this stage, the range is between HKD 34.82 and HKD 49.04, with a fluctuation of approximately 40.8%. For a closer look at the actual fluctuation range suitable for short-term trading, you can focus on the range between HKD 43.80 and HKD 49.04, which aligns better with the current trading strategy. Overall, the short-term attractiveness of Nio-SW remains moderately positive but has shifted from an early accumulation zone near the lows to a confirmation area close to resistance levels. The current price isn’t entirely unfavorable to hold, but it’s no longer in a comfortable position for passive holding. If HKD 49.04 is effectively broken through, warrants can be considered for continued holding; if the breakout fails and falls below HKD 47.00 to HKD 45.70, it would be wiser to reduce positions or exit as the short-term initiative may no longer be in favor of the bulls.

6. China Eastern Airlines (00670.HK): The small holiday is here, the rebound has started. What’s the short-term target? In the warrant market, investors mentioned that the call warrants they bought are not tracking the price increase well, with a strike price of 7.33 yuan.

China Eastern Airlines is currently trading at 3.91 yuan. After its earlier decline from a high of 6.40 yuan to a recent low of 3.36 yuan, if we consider this as the primary observation range, the stock can be viewed as oscillating between 3.36 yuan and 6.40 yuan, showing an overall volatility of approximately 90.5%, which indicates a highly volatile but still incomplete recovery pattern. For a closer short-term trading range, the focus can be on 3.36 yuan to 4.25 yuan as the main short-term rebound zone, since 3.36 yuan represents the recent clear low, while 4.20 yuan to 4.25 yuan serves as a noticeable resistance level during the latest pullback. On the support side, 3.80 yuan to 3.67 yuan is key, as this area is close to the recent consolidation level and also acts as the first major support for the renewed upward movement; if broken, the next support would revert to 3.36 yuan. Resistance-wise, 3.99 yuan to 4.00 yuan is crucial, as it is near the 20-day moving average and also a psychological round-number level in the short term. If this level is surpassed, the next targets could be 4.25 yuan to 4.50 yuan, and further up, there might be potential to challenge 4.75 yuan.

From a technical standpoint, the moving averages remain downward-trending overall, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and even longer-term moving averages yet to reverse, indicating that the current rally remains within the context of a downtrend rather than signaling a confirmed trend reversal. Regarding the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the short-term RSI has risen above 50, reflecting reduced selling pressure and improved momentum compared to before, though it remains neutral with only slight signs of improvement and cannot be considered very strong. In terms of the Bollinger Bands, after previously touching the lower band and rebounding, the stock is now mainly hovering in the lower-middle portion of the channel, suggesting that the sharpest part of the decline has slowed down but without clear upward expansion. Therefore, this phase appears more like a technical correction rather than the start of a strong one-sided uptrend.

To confirm that the rebound has truly begun, the triggering conditions must be clear: the stock price must first stabilize above 3.99 yuan to 4.00 yuan, then break through 4.25 yuan, and ideally not just rely on intraday spikes but close firmly above these levels, which would indicate that the move isn't merely a short-term oversold bounce but has the potential to push towards 4.50 yuan or even 4.75 yuan. In other words, saying “the small holiday is here, the rebound has started” is not entirely baseless, as the stock has indeed rebounded from the 3.36 yuan low and short-term sentiment has improved. However, unless the key levels of 4.00 yuan and 4.25 yuan are breached, it's premature to declare the start of a meaningful rebound.

On the downside risk, the triggering conditions are equally clear. If the stock fails to hold above the 3.80 yuan to 3.67 yuan support zone, it means the current rally lacks follow-through buying power, which would damage the short-term rebound structure. A further drop below 3.36 yuan would confirm the continuation of weakness, and not only would the rebound target need to be revised downwards, but the overall trend would also shift back into a bottom-probing pattern. This implies that the biggest risk now is not that the rebound ensures safety, but rather that the stock remains in a weak structure, with only a temporary recovery. If key supports fail to hold, the rebound could easily fizzle out.

To directly address the investor’s question, for a short-term target, a reasonable first objective at this stage would be around 4.00 yuan, followed by 4.25 yuan upon a breakout. If it can stabilize above that, the next target could extend to 4.50 yuan. Setting overly ambitious targets now overlooks the fact that multiple moving averages and a downward trend still present significant resistance. As for the situation where the call warrants purchased in the warrant market are not tracking the rise, with a strike price of 7.33 yuan, this is understandable because 7.33 yuan is significantly far from the current stock price of 3.91 yuan, making them deep out-of-the-money call warrants. When the underlying stock is merely experiencing a technical rebound from a low rather than a rapid surge toward the strike price, such products tend to have low sensitivity to small stock price increases. Additionally, time decay further reduces their responsiveness, leading to scenarios where the stock rises but the warrant price does not react favorably. Hence, the issue may not be that the stock is completely stagnant, but rather that the product itself is too far out-of-the-money to effectively track price movements.

In summary, China Eastern Airlines’ short-term attractiveness has improved from its previous lows but remains cautiously neutral. The bullish case hinges on the stock stabilizing above 4.00 yuan and breaking through 4.25 yuan. The bearish scenario relies on a breakdown below 3.67 yuan, or even a retest of 3.36 yuan. At this stage, it’s more reasonable to view the current movement as a technical rebound within a weak trend rather than a full-blown trend reversal. Investors who believe the rebound has started may be directionally correct, but their statements should come with caveats. As for using call warrants with a strike price of 7.33 yuan to capture this kind of rebound, the odds of success are relatively low, as the magnitude of the rebound may not be sufficient to drive favorable performance in such products.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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