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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Apr 1 14:44

Kuaishou shows signs of a rebound from oversold conditions, how to position for the short term?

$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ After recently touching a yearly low of HKD 44.2, signs of stabilization in the short term are gradually emerging, with intraday gains exceeding 3%, and the latest price at HKD 45.64. From the perspective of moving averages, the stock price is still below the 10-day moving average (HKD 49.46), the 30-day moving average (HKD 58), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 66.99). The medium-term downward trend has not yet fundamentally reversed, and overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Technical indicators show clear divergence between short-term and medium-term signals: Short-term oscillation indicators generally signal buy opportunities, with the 14-day RSI at 26, stochastic oscillators, and Williams %R all within oversold territory. Indicators like ROC, VR volume ratio, and bull-bear power also suggest buying, reflecting that selling pressure is gradually waning, while upward momentum is accumulating, indicating strong technical repair needs. However, trend indicators remain weak, with Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Bollinger Bands showing sell signals, and CCI, ADX, and others remaining neutral, suggesting medium-term downward pressure has not completely eased, and rebound potential remains constrained by trend resistance.
In terms of key levels, the first support is currently at HKD 43.1. If it holds this level, there's potential to test the first resistance at HKD 52.6, with further resistance near the 30-day moving average at HKD 58.1. If it breaks below HKD 43.1 effectively, it may drop to the second support level at HKD 35.2. Currently, the 5-day volatility is at 10.2%, with higher stock price fluctuations, and the short-term probability of an increase is 61%, slightly leaning towards positive.
$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ After recently touching a yearly low of HKD 44.2, signs of stabilization in the short term are gradually emerging, with intraday gains exceeding 3%, and the latest price at HKD 45.64. From the perspective of moving averages, the stock price is still below the 10-day moving average (HKD 49.46), the 30-day moving average (HKD 58), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 66.99). The medium-term downward trend has not yet fundamentally reversed, and overall market sentiment remains cautious. Technical indicators show clear divergence between short-term and medium-term signals: Short-term oscillation indicators generally signal buy opportunities, with the 14-day RSI at 26, stochastic oscillators, and Williams %R all within oversold territory. Indicators like ROC, VR volume ratio, and bull-bear power also suggest buying, reflecting that selling pressure is gradually waning, while upward momentum is accumulating, indicating strong technical repair needs. However, trend indicators remain weak, with Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Bollinger Bands showing sell signals, and CCI, ADX, and others remaining neutral, suggesting medium-term downward pressure has not completely eased, and rebound potential remains constrained by trend resistance. In terms of key levels, the first support is currently at HKD 43.1. If it holds this level, there's potential to test the first resistance at HKD 52.6, with further resistance near the 30-day moving average at HKD 58.1. If it breaks below HKD 43.1 effectively, it may drop to the second support level at HKD 35.2. Currently, the 5-day volatility is at 10.2%, with higher stock price fluctuations, and the short-term probability of an increase is 61%, slightly...
$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ After recently touching a yearly low of HKD 44.2, signs of stabilization in the short term are gradually emerging, with intraday gains exceeding 3%, and the latest price at HKD 45.64. From the perspective of moving averages, the stock price is still below the 10-day moving average (HKD 49.46), the 30-day moving average (HKD 58), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 66.99). The medium-term downward trend has not yet fundamentally reversed, and overall market sentiment remains cautious. Technical indicators show clear divergence between short-term and medium-term signals: Short-term oscillation indicators generally signal buy opportunities, with the 14-day RSI at 26, stochastic oscillators, and Williams %R all within oversold territory. Indicators like ROC, VR volume ratio, and bull-bear power also suggest buying, reflecting that selling pressure is gradually waning, while upward momentum is accumulating, indicating strong technical repair needs. However, trend indicators remain weak, with Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Bollinger Bands showing sell signals, and CCI, ADX, and others remaining neutral, suggesting medium-term downward pressure has not completely eased, and rebound potential remains constrained by trend resistance. In terms of key levels, the first support is currently at HKD 43.1. If it holds this level, there's potential to test the first resistance at HKD 52.6, with further resistance near the 30-day moving average at HKD 58.1. If it breaks below HKD 43.1 effectively, it may drop to the second support level at HKD 35.2. Currently, the 5-day volatility is at 10.2%, with higher stock price fluctuations, and the short-term probability of an increase is 61%, slightly...
Data from the derivatives market also reflects a pattern of bullish-bearish divergence: In the past three days, the street volume of call warrants initially declined then rose, remaining around 200 million shares, recording 202.107 million on March 27th, dropping to 197.371 million on March 30th, and rising back to 198.386 million on March 31st, showing stability in long positions' holdings, with funds entering again after short-term profit-taking. Street volume of put warrants also initially dropped then rose, recording 8.689 million on March 27th, slightly decreasing to 8.542 million on March 30th, and rising back to 8.824 million on March 31st, reaching a three-day high, reflecting increased hedging activities from bearish investors, indicating heightened expectations for future volatility.
The movement of bull and bear certificates presents a clear divergence. Bull certificate volumes were 46.35 million on March 27th, significantly dropping to 30.14 million on March 30th as the stock price hit new lows, and slightly recovering to 30.85 million on March 31st, resulting in a cumulative decrease of 33.44% over three days, indicating substantial liquidations of leveraged long positions during the stock’s recent new low, causing significant losses for high-risk preference capital. Conversely, bear certificate volumes consecutively fell over two days, from 29.19 million on March 27th to 20.97 million on March 31st, with a cumulative decline of 28.16%, reflecting previous short-positioning capital gradually taking profits as the stock price hit new lows, leading to a temporary weakening of bearish momentum.
In terms of derivatives deployment, investors can choose corresponding products based on their varying expectations for Kuaishou's future performance to amplify returns or hedge risks. If investors anticipate an upcoming technical rebound, they may consider call warrants and bull contracts.$BIKUASO@EC2612B.C (27764.HK)$Among these, a product offering approximately 3.1 times leverage with a strike price of 53.48 yuan stands out as having the highest leverage among similar products, making it suitable for aggressive investors seeking to profit from a rebound. Investors who are optimistic may also consider bull contracts; J.P. Morgan's bull contract$JP#KUASORC2610E.C (68122.HK)$ and $HS#KUASORC2701A.C (68901.HK)$has a recovery price of 40 yuan, providing about 5 times high actual leverage with low premium, effectively tracking the upside movement of the underlying stock. J.P. Morgan’s bull contract has the lowest premium.
On the other hand, if investors believe the rebound will be weak and the stock price will retest lower levels, they can focus on put warrants and bear contracts. Among the put warrants,$MSKUASO@EP2612A.P (18224.HK)$have the lowest premium and implied volatility, with a strike price of 49.83 yuan, offering relatively superior cost control. Meanwhile,$BIKUASO@EP2612A.P (17484.HK)$provides the highest leverage at about 1.9 times with a lower premium, offering higher capital efficiency. For bearish market strategies, bear contracts can be an explosive choice.$HS#KUASORP2811B.P (68956.HK)$ and $UB#KUASORP2812I.P (64717.HK)$Both have a recovery price set at 55 yuan; the former offers approximately 4.1 times actual leverage, the highest in its category, while the latter boasts the lowest premium, allowing investors to capture larger fluctuations during a stock price decline. Investors should carefully select appropriate leveraged products based on their risk tolerance and judgment of market volatility.
$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ After recently touching a yearly low of HKD 44.2, signs of stabilization in the short term are gradually emerging, with intraday gains exceeding 3%, and the latest price at HKD 45.64. From the perspective of moving averages, the stock price is still below the 10-day moving average (HKD 49.46), the 30-day moving average (HKD 58), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 66.99). The medium-term downward trend has not yet fundamentally reversed, and overall market sentiment remains cautious. Technical indicators show clear divergence between short-term and medium-term signals: Short-term oscillation indicators generally signal buy opportunities, with the 14-day RSI at 26, stochastic oscillators, and Williams %R all within oversold territory. Indicators like ROC, VR volume ratio, and bull-bear power also suggest buying, reflecting that selling pressure is gradually waning, while upward momentum is accumulating, indicating strong technical repair needs. However, trend indicators remain weak, with Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Bollinger Bands showing sell signals, and CCI, ADX, and others remaining neutral, suggesting medium-term downward pressure has not completely eased, and rebound potential remains constrained by trend resistance. In terms of key levels, the first support is currently at HKD 43.1. If it holds this level, there's potential to test the first resistance at HKD 52.6, with further resistance near the 30-day moving average at HKD 58.1. If it breaks below HKD 43.1 effectively, it may drop to the second support level at HKD 35.2. Currently, the 5-day volatility is at 10.2%, with higher stock price fluctuations, and the short-term probability of an increase is 61%, slightly...
Derivatives market data shows that both call and put warrant street volumes have rebounded, intensifying the layout between bulls and bears. Do you think Kuaishou will first break through the resistance level at 52.6 yuan, or fall below the support level at 43.1 yuan in the short term? Is Kuaishou's current trend a pullback or a reversal?
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HKStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantPick #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #Kuaishou #01024 #TechStocks #TechnicalAnalysis$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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