Ubtech Robotics Technical Update: Analysis of the Key Turning Point After a Short-term Strong Breakthrough
Announced full-year 2025 results, with a net loss of RMB 700 million for the year, significantly narrowing from the RMB 1.1 billion loss in 2024. Loss per share was RMB 1.55, and no final dividend was declared. Operating revenue increased by 53% year-on-year to RMB 2 billion, including a 22-fold surge in revenue from full-size embodied intelligent humanoid robot products and solutions to RMB 820 million, with sales reaching 1,079 units. Revenue from non-embodied intelligent humanoid robot business also rose 15% to RMB 48 million, with sales of 12,700 units. Overall gross profit more than doubled year-on-year to RMB 750 million, with gross margin improving by 9 percentage points to 37.7%, showing a significant improvement in profitability structure.
Driven by its financial performance, Ubtech Robotics' stock price surged by 13.82%, closing at RMB 97.2. Technically, while the stock has strongly broken through the 10-day moving average (RMB 93.28), it remains constrained below the 30-day line (RMB 108.89) and the 60-day line (RMB 117.39). The medium-term bearish pattern has not been fully reversed yet. Whether this rally is a short-term rebound after a sharp decline or the start of a trend reversal has become the market’s focus.
From a technical indicator perspective, the current signals present a contradictory but slightly positive combination. Oscillation indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R are temporarily in the neutral range, indicating that momentum has not reached extreme levels. However, the CCI has issued a clear buy signal, suggesting that the stock price may break away from its previous downward channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also rebounded from a low level to 35, reflecting a significant easing of selling pressure and a gradual accumulation of buying power. Nevertheless, trend-following indicators like MACD and Rate of Change (ROC) still lean toward sell signals, indicating that further confirmation is required for a medium-term trend reversal.
In terms of key price levels, the first support below is RMB 88.1, marking the short-term boundary between strength and weakness. A break below this could see the next support at RMB 82. Upward, the first resistance is at RMB 105.8, close to the 30-day moving average, where heavy selling pressure is expected. If the stock can break through with strong volume, it may test the resistance at RMB 114.4 along the 60-day line, which represents the core turning point for the medium-term trend.
In summary, the current trend reflects a typical pattern of 'short-term strong rebound encountering medium-term moving average resistance.' The single-day high-volume long candlestick combined with the CCI buy signal indeed provides a short-term technical trading opportunity, with RMB 88.1 serving as a defensive reference for short-term plays. However, multiple trend indicators remain bearish, and the obvious pressure within the core resistance zone between RMB 105.8 and RMB 114.4 suggests the current movement is more likely a rebound from oversold conditions rather than a trend reversal. For aggressive traders, a position can be initiated around RMB 96.35, with a stop-loss set below RMB 88.1, targeting a short-term test of resistance at RMB 105.8. Conservative investors should wait until the stock successfully stabilizes above the 30-day moving average and trend indicators show further strengthening before considering medium-term positioning.
Derivatives market data also reflects diverging expectations. During the period from March 30 to March 31, 2026, the street volume of call warrants slightly decreased from 87.81 million units to 87.17 million units, a drop of approximately 0.73%, indicating some short-term profit-taking by bullish investors. Meanwhile, the street volume of put warrants increased from 0.57 million units to 0.79 million units, a rise of 38.6%, reflecting that some funds are positioning for short trades to hedge against downside risks. The street volume of bull contracts remained relatively stable, rising only marginally from 4.48 million units to 4.49 million units, suggesting that long-term leveraged bullish funds have relatively consistent expectations for the market outlook without significant position adjustments.
If investors believe that the technical rebound will continue, they may focus on call warrants and bull contracts. Among these, $BPUBTEC@EC2609A.C (27717.HK)$ with an exercise price of HK$108.78 stands out for having the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products. This means that the time value decay and volatility risk costs are relatively low, allowing for purer tracking of the underlying stock's performance. Investors seeking higher leverage can consider $BIUBTEC@EC2609B.C (27768.HK)$, which offers a leverage ratio of up to 2.6x, the highest in the table, and also has low implied volatility, making it suitable for investors aiming for larger short-term fluctuations. For investors with higher risk tolerance who set clear stop-loss levels, $UB#UBTECRC2612B.C (64981.HK)$ provides effective leverage of up to 3.3x, with a recovery price set at HK$79, offering a considerable distance from the current price and the lowest premium, making it an efficient tool for betting on a rebound.
If investors think that this rebound is only temporary and the market will resume its downward trend, they may consider put warrants. $HUUBTEC@EP2606A.P (21252.HK)$ provides 2.2x leverage, the highest among the listed put products, making it suitable for hedging risks associated with holding the underlying stock or directly taking bearish positions. Investors should note that all derivative products involve high risks, with prices potentially surging or plunging rapidly. When selecting products, one should comprehensively consider their risk tolerance, judgment on the underlying stock’s movement, as well as product terms such as exercise price, recovery price, expiration date, etc., while strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline.
Both being robotics concept stocks, Ubtech Robotics surged over 13%, while MicroPort Robotics rose by just over 2%. What do you think is the core reason for this significant divergence between individual stocks? Ubtech Robotics' latest market capitalization has reached HK$36.9 billion, surpassing peers like $MEDBOT-B (02252.HK)$ 、 $ONEROBOTICS (06600.HK)$ 、 $DOBOT (02432.HK)$ 、 $YUNJI (02670.HK)$. Do you think this market cap level matches its current earnings growth rate? Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'HK Warrants Jenny' daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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