March 31 [Hong Kong Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - Galaxy Entertainment, Bank of China (Hong Kong), Meituan

4. Galaxy Entertainment Group (00027.HK): Investors mention Easter and May Day Golden Week; is there a chance for the stock price to surge towards 44-50 yuan?

Galaxy Entertainment is currently trading at 35.00 yuan. The recent clear trading range spans 34.10 yuan to 44.22 yuan, with overall volatility approximately 29.7%. At the current price, the stock is nearing the lower end of the range, indicating it hasn't fully shaken off its weakness following a pullback from higher levels. Support-wise, initial focus is on 34.10 yuan, a recent notable low. Holding above this level could offer short-term technical rebound opportunities; breaking below it signifies further deepening weakness. Resistance-wise, the immediate zone is around 36 yuan to 37 yuan, a common pressure point during short-term rebounds, followed by 38 yuan to 39.50 yuan, which aligns with several medium- and short-term moving averages. For a larger rebound attempt, the price would need to look above 40 yuan.

Technically, the moving averages remain downward-sloping, indicating a still-bearish major trend without a clear short-term reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at weaker levels but not extremely oversold, implying that although the stock is weak, it's closer to bottom fluctuations than an imminent sharp rebound. The Bollinger Bands are near the lower band with narrowing signs, suggesting that after a round of declines, the stock is now consolidating at lower levels but remains in a weak pattern, not yet resuming an upward trend.

If looking at upside potential, the triggering condition is very clear: the stock price must first stabilize above 34.10 yuan and further break through the short-term resistance zone between 36 yuan and 37 yuan. Ideally, it should also hold steady near 38 yuan to truly transition from a low-level rebound to a more substantial recovery. If it merely fluctuates around 35 yuan or rises slightly only to retreat again, then the trend remains a technical pullback within a weak range. In other words, the market must first reclaim pressure from the short-term moving averages before there can be any discussion about prices above 40 yuan.

If assessing downside risk, the triggering condition would be if the 34.10 yuan support level is broken—not just briefly breached and recovered, but decisively falling below and remaining under sustained pressure. Should this occur, it indicates that recent support at the lows has failed, prompting the market to test even lower levels. At that point, short-term attractiveness will significantly deteriorate, making any premature bullish bets highly disadvantageous.

Regarding derivatives capital distribution, there are currently 24 call warrants and 7 put warrants. The quantity of products already reflects that more capital remains concentrated in bullish instruments. The most heavily traded range for call warrants is between strike prices of 47.77 yuan and 47.79 yuan, while for put warrants it’s between 32.25 yuan and 32.27 yuan. As for outstanding positions (street leverage), the concentration is highest near the 46.80 yuan to 46.82 yuan strike price for call warrants, with a distinct one-sided focus. This structure shows that although the underlying stock’s trend remains weak, the derivatives market isn’t uniformly bearish—there is still significant capital positioning for a mid-to-late stage rebound, leaning bullish, though this hasn't yet been fully confirmed by the underlying asset’s performance.

Directly addressing investors' questions, relying solely on the concepts of Easter and the May Day Golden Week to believe that the stock price will rise for a prolonged period, even pushing it to HKD 44 to HKD 50, is an aggressive view at this stage. HKD 44 is not an arbitrary target but is already close to the recent range high of HKD 44.22; as for HKD 50, it is clearly higher than what the current trend can directly support. At the current price of HKD 35, reaching HKD 44 would mean an increase of more than 25%, and reaching HKD 50 would mean an increase of over 40%. This is not something that short-term natural fluctuations can easily achieve. It doesn't mean it's entirely impossible, but conditions must be progressively met first, including holding firmly above HKD 34.10, breaking through HKD 36 to HKD 37, and then reclaiming the HKD 38 to HKD 40 region before discussing HKD 44. From the perspective of short-term betting odds, it is currently more reasonable to first see if the lows hold and whether there is any ability to make a rebound recovery. Directly targeting HKD 44 to HKD 50 is premature in terms of direction and too hasty in terms of rhythm.$UB-GEG @EP2606A.P (23970.HK)$$BI-GEG @EP2606A.P (24067.HK)$

BOC Hong Kong (02388.HK): Investors ask if they can enter at the current price? Is this the top? Pay attention to the call warrant with a strike price of 46.9 yuan.

BOC Hong Kong’s current price is 42.80 yuan, with its recent trading range considered to be between 38.56 yuan and 44.90 yuan, representing an overall volatility of approximately 16.4%. Based on the current price position, the stock has rebounded from the middle-lower part of the range to the upper-middle section. It’s not far from the previous resistance high, but not yet close to the recent notable high of 44.90 yuan, so the current phase seems closer to a rebound preparing to challenge the upper boundary rather than confirming a peak. On the support side, first consider the area around 41.60 yuan to 41.30 yuan, which is near a short-term consolidation zone and several short-term moving averages. Below that, the 40.20 yuan to 39.60 yuan region could act as another support. Losing this area would signal a notably weaker trend. For resistance, look at the 43.30 yuan to 43.80 yuan range, followed by the recent high of 44.90 yuan. Breaking through this would provide the conditions to advance to higher levels.

In terms of technical status, moving averages are currently intertwined, reflecting that while the medium- to short-term structure has improved, a decisive one-sided uptrend has yet to form. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a relatively strong level, indicating some recovery in short-term buying power but also showing that the stock has already accumulated a certain gain from its lows. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price is approaching the upper band, typically signaling a stronger short-term trend. However, without further upward breakthroughs, consolidation or pullbacks near the upper band are likely. Therefore, the key now isn’t just the sentiment but whether the price can genuinely break through resistance.

If assessing upside potential, the triggering condition is clear: the stock price must first stabilize within the resistance zone of 43.30 yuan to 43.80 yuan, then further challenge 44.90 yuan. Ideally, this shouldn’t rely solely on intraday spikes but should sustainably close above the resistance, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. If it repeatedly fails near 43 yuan without establishing a firm foothold, the stock is more likely to remain range-bound rather than achieve a true breakout.

If assessing downside risk, the triggering condition would be a renewed drop below the support zone of 41.60 yuan to 41.30 yuan. Losing this area indicates diminishing short-term upward momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the 40.20 yuan to 39.60 yuan region. Falling below 40 yuan would signify that this rebound may have run its course, causing the market to turn conservative again. While the current situation isn’t overtly weak, the risk of a pullback cannot be ignored.

Regarding derivatives capital distribution, the market currently has 17 products, of which 16 are call warrants and only 1 is a put warrant, indicating a clear bias towards bullish expectations. The most heavily traded range falls on call warrants with strike prices of 46.88 yuan to 46.91 yuan, while the lone put warrant is at a strike price of 35.90 yuan. Similarly, the most concentrated area of outstanding positions lies within the 46.88 yuan to 46.91 yuan range for call warrants, showing one-sided focus. This reflects consistent capital positioning, mainly concentrating in moderately out-of-the-money call warrants rather than displaying significant divergence between bulls and bears. In other words, the derivatives market currently leans toward believing that the stock has room to rise, but this expectation ultimately depends on the underlying asset breaking through resistance to confirm.

Directly responding to investors' questions, at the current price of HKD 42.80, entry can still be considered, but it is not a low-risk position; instead, it is closer to a momentum play before resistance. Therefore, one must accept that this is not the safest position. As for whether the top has been reached, I would say that it cannot yet be definitively characterized as a top because the share price has not yet reached the previous high of HKD 44.90, and the technical state does not show obvious signs of weakness. However, it is also not a position where one can unreservedly say it offers great value, as the current price is close to the upper resistance level, and if the breakout fails, short-term pullback pressure will immediately increase. The call warrant with a strike price of HKD 46.90 you are watching aligns with the current market mainstream's bullish deployment, but since there is still a gap between the underlying stock’s current price and the strike price, if the share price only rises slightly, the product's performance may not be very ideal. Overall, this view is reasonably directional, but timing-wise, it is more suitable to wait for an effective breakout above HKD 43.30 to HKD 43.80 before the short-term betting odds significantly improve. If you chase in without a breakout, the betting odds would only be moderate, not particularly attractive.$UBBOCHK@EC2605A.C (24094.HK)$$MSBOCHK@EC2605A.C (23912.HK)$

6. Meituan-W (03690.HK): After a month-long decline, what’s the support level? Focus on bear contracts with a recovery price of 95 yuan.

Meituan’s current price is 82.95 yuan, and its recent obvious trading range is between 73.60 yuan and 107.00 yuan, representing an overall volatility of approximately 45.4%. From a short-term trading perspective, after a period of consecutive declines, the share price has rebounded from the 73.60-yuan low, but overall, it has not yet fully escaped the corrective pattern following the medium-term downtrend. For support levels, we first look at around 81 to 80 yuan, which is close to the consolidation area after the short-term rebound. Below that, the next key zone is 78.80 to 77 yuan. If that level is breached, there could be a retest of the recent low at 73.60 yuan. On the resistance side, the initial focus is on 84.80 to 85 yuan, as this range is near the intraday highs and represents a pressure area after the short-term bounce. Beyond that, the next resistance zone is 87 to 88 yuan. A break above that level would open the way for further advances towards 90 yuan or higher.

From a technical perspective, the moving averages are still trending downward, indicating that the major trend hasn’t fully reversed and the medium-term structure remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently neutral, suggesting that although there has been a rebound, strong sustained upward momentum has not formed. In terms of Bollinger Bands, the price is nearing the upper band, reflecting that after a short-term rebound, it has approached a higher volatility zone. Without further upside breakthroughs, pullbacks are likely. Thus, the current situation isn’t simply about being too weak to rebound, but that the rebound is now at a juncture where renewed confirmation of strength is required.

If looking at upside potential, the trigger conditions are clear: the share price needs to stabilize above 84.80 to 85 yuan, then rise further above 87 to 88 yuan. Only then can the short-term rebound potentially extend. If the price merely approaches 85 yuan before retreating, it’s more likely just a technical correction after the decline, rather than a true reversal. In other words, for the rebound to evolve into a clearer upward trend, it must first break through and hold above the short-term resistance zone.

Regarding downside risks, the trigger condition is if the share price breaks below the 81 to 80 yuan support zone, especially if it also breaches the 78.80 to 77 yuan region. In that case, the market is highly likely to retest the recent low at 73.60 yuan. This would also indicate that the current rebound structure has failed, and short-term value would deteriorate significantly. Therefore, the support isn’t just a single line. The first defensive line is around 80 yuan, followed by the 77 to 78 yuan zone as the second defense. If both fail to hold, the stock should be viewed with a bearish mindset again.

In terms of derivatives capital distribution, there are currently 119 call warrants and 60 put warrants, showing that call products still outnumber puts. The most concentrated trading ranges are call warrants with strike prices between 95 and 100 yuan, and put warrants between 85 and 90 yuan. Regarding open interest, call warrants are also concentrated in the 95 to 100 yuan range, while puts are focused on the 80 to 90 yuan zone. This reflects that the market isn’t entirely one-sided, as significant capital remains deployed for upside rebounds, while bearish positions are clearly concentrated in put zones closer to the current price. Hence, the overall picture is mixed, neither fully bullish nor bearish. Looking at recent near-price positioning, bearish capital remains cautious about downside pressure.

Directly responding to investors' questions, after a month-long decline, the current short-term support can first be seen around HKD 80, then lower at HKD 77 to HKD 78, and finally at the low of HKD 73.60. Regarding the bear certificate with a stop-loss price of HKD 95, from a positioning perspective, HKD 95 is noticeably higher than the current price, providing relatively better safety distance compared to near-the-money bear certificates. However, the issue lies in the fact that the stock price has just rebounded from the lows and is now approaching short-term upper resistance. If the stock price successfully breaks above HKD 85 and continues to rise further, the bear certificate will start facing significant pressure. Therefore, this deployment is not entirely unreasonable since the mid-term moving average direction is still downward, and the underlying stock cannot yet be considered genuinely strong. But if one blindly bets on bearishness just because the stock 'has fallen for a month,' the betting odds might not be particularly favorable. A more reasonable approach is to wait for the stock price to confirm resistance near HKD 84.80 to HKD 85 or even break below the HKD 80 support before the short-term betting odds for the bear certificate become clearer. At this stage, being overly bearish without seeing clear resistance signals does not offer a particularly strong winning chance.$HS#MTUANRP2807C.P (60508.HK)$$UB#MTUANRP2812D.P (61957.HK)$$UBMTUAN@EP2612B.P (27240.HK)$$BIMTUAN@EP2612C.P (27411.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other data for a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$$HKEX (00388.HK)$$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$

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