The Hang Seng Index is in a volatile bottoming phase, with the market in a balance between bulls and bears.

The previous day (March 31st) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,788.14 points, up 0.15% for the day with a trading volume of 255.76 billion yuan. The increase narrowed and trading volume dropped, indicating an overall phase of consolidation.

Based on the latest technical data of the Hang Seng Index, the breakdown is as follows:

1、Support and Resistance: Support 2 is at 23,523 points, Support 1 at 24,283 points, Resistance 1 at 25,585 points, and Resistance 2 at 26,370 points. In the short term, key focus should be on the support level at 24,283 points and whether the resistance level at 25,585 points can be broken through—these two positions will determine if the short-term consolidation pattern can be broken.

Core Technical Indicators: The RSI is at 40, which is in the neutral zone. Multiple oscillation indicators show neutral signals; the RSI indicator is neutral, the Williams %R indicator is neutral, while the stochastic oscillator gives a buy signal. The bull-bear power indicator suggests oversold conditions and possible bottoming out, also giving a buy signal. MACD indicates a buy, Bollinger Bands indicate a sell; overall, indicators present a slightly bullish but still pressured situation.

Comprehensive Signal: The summary signal from technical indicators is 'buy,' with a signal strength of 10 and an upward probability of 53%, slightly above 50%. The five-day volatility is 4%, with fluctuations stabilizing, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Signs of bottoming out are evident, but the rebound remains weak.

Key blue-chip stocks showed mixed performance on March 31st. HSBC, CCB, HKEX, China Mobile, and Ping An rose, while other stocks fell. The divergence in technical signals intensified, with clear contrast between buy and sell signals. The breakdown is as follows:

1. Strong Buy Signal Stocks (2 stocks):

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 484.0 yuan, up 0.50%. The closing price is below the MA10 (504.4 yuan), MA30 (520.57 yuan), and MA60 (559.52 yuan). The RSI is 32, close to oversold conditions. Strong buy signal intensity is 12, indicating accumulated strong technical rebound demand.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Closed at 119.0 yuan, down 1.24%. The closing price is below all major moving averages. The RSI is 32, near oversold levels. Strong buy signal intensity is 12, suggesting a higher likelihood of a rebound.

2. Buy Signal Stocks (3 stocks):

$HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 388.6 yuan, up 1.62%. The closing price is below all major moving averages. The RSI is 40, neutral. Buy signal intensity is 10, supporting continued rebound.

$PING AN (02318.HK)$ Closed at 59.45 yuan, up 0.93 yuan. The closing price is below all major moving averages. The RSI is 39, neutral. Buy signal intensity is 8, with rebound momentum gradually building up.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Closed at 31.76 yuan, down 1.91%, with the closing price below all major moving averages. RSI at 40 is neutral, buy signal strength at 9, indicating conditions for a technical rebound.

3. Neutral signal stocks (1 stock):

$AIA (01299.HK)$ Closed at 84.85 yuan, slightly down 0.12%, with the closing price above MA10 (84.71 yuan) and MA30 (84.22 yuan), but below MA60 (84.86 yuan). RSI at 50 is neutral, neutral signal strength at 9, short-term trend unclear, with bulls and bears in balance.

4. Sell signal stocks (4 stocks):

$CCB (00939.HK)$ Closed at 8.39 yuan, up 1.82%, with the closing price above all major moving averages and maintaining a bullish alignment. RSI at 63 near overbought levels, sell signal strength at 8, indicating overbought conditions and significant profit-taking pressure.

$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Closed at 125.8 yuan, up 1.78%, with the closing price above MA10 (124.29 yuan), but below MA30 (130.93 yuan) and MA60 (131.36 yuan). RSI at 45 is neutral, sell signal strength at 8, raising doubts about the sustainability of the short-term rebound.

$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ Closed at 79.15 yuan, up 1.02%, with the closing price above MA10 (78.5 yuan) and MA30 (78.8 yuan), but below MA60 (79.4 yuan). RSI at 48 is neutral, sell signal strength at 9, indicating a slightly bearish short-term trend.

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 82.95 yuan, down 1.48%, with the closing price above MA10 (82.55 yuan) and MA30 (80.24 yuan), but below MA60 (88.9 yuan). RSI at 54 is moderately strong, buy signal strength at 7, short-term trend remains unclear.

Overall market sentiment: The Hang Seng Index edged higher but volatility was muted, with investors adopting a wait-and-see attitude. On one hand, strong buy signals from Tencent and Alibaba attracted some contrarian position-building capital. On the other hand, sell signals from stocks like CCB made investors hesitant to chase highs, leaving the market in a balanced state of 'bottoming out while taking profits.'

Review and selection of Hang Seng Index warrants and bull-bear certificates: Rational leverage opportunities amid volatile conditions.

(1) Review of previous warrant and bull/bear products

Looking back at the Hang Seng Index-related CBBC and warrant products recommended on March 25, their performance has been stable: $BI#HSI RP28049.P (68742.HK)$ Up 29% in two days, $BI#HSI RP2804S.P (68336.HK)$ Up 28%, $JP-HSI @EP2605A.P (22976.HK)$ Up 20%, $BI-HSI @EP2606B.P (24183.HK)$ Up 18%, all outperforming the Hang Seng Index's corresponding performance of -1.52%, capturing solid leveraged returns for investors focusing on derivatives.

(II) HSI Warrant Selection

Considering the Hang Seng Index's neutral-to-bullish pattern, with clear signs of bottoming but weak rebound momentum, we have selected two warrant products suited for different trading expectations for investors' reference:

1、 $BP-HSI @EC2605A.C (23939.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 19.7, strike price at 26,600 points, key advantage being the lowest premium and implied volatility, suitable for investors optimistic about the Hang Seng Index breaking through the resistance level at 25,585 points and continuing its bottoming rebound.

2、 $JP-HSI @EP2605A.P (22976.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 12.6, strike price at 23,400 points, lowest premium with relatively high leverage, suitable for investors who believe the Hang Seng Index will remain volatile in the short term and focus on the support level at 24,283 points.

Risk Warning: The divergence in technical signals among blue chips intensified yesterday (March 31), and the rebound momentum of the Hang Seng Index remains weak. Investors participating in warrants and CBBCs should assess their own risk tolerance, rationally manage their positions, and closely monitor changes in support/resistance levels and trading volumes of the Hang Seng Index.

Your current true feeling about Hong Kong stocks is: A. Want to liquidate holdings. B. Reluctant to leave. C. Already numb, not paying attention to the market. D. Waiting to buy the dip.

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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