Pop Mart receives a strong buy signal, rebound needs to hold steady above 140.1 yuan

On the previous day (March 30th) $POP MART (09992.HK)$

Closing price at 148.7 yuan, a slight daily drop of 0.60%. Amidst the overall adjustment in the consumer retail sector, it shows a 'slowing decline but weak sentiment' characteristic.

Combined with our 【HK Stock Broadcast】March 30th [HKEX Podcast] Part 2 - Chifeng Gold, Goldwind Technology, Pop MartCommentary: The stock price has fallen to near the lower end of the recent range, with insufficient short-term buying support. $CHIFENG GOLD (06693.HK)$$GOLDWIND (02208.HK)$

From a technical perspective, Pop Mart is in an extremely weak pattern, with the closing price below MA10 (189.63 yuan), MA30 (211.85 yuan), and MA60 (212.63 yuan). The moving averages are showing a clear bearish alignment, and the short- to medium-term structure has not reversed. In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI is only at 23, already in the oversold zone, reflecting short-term excessive downward pressure, but oversold does not equate to an immediate bottom.

The technical indicator summary signal is 'Strong Buy' (signal strength 12). Multiple oscillation indicators suggest 'oversold condition, buy signal,' indicating the system judges it to be deeply oversold, with a strong demand for a technical rebound.

Key support and resistance: Immediate support is at 140.1 yuan (recent significant low); if broken, the next support is at 96.4 yuan. Resistance is first seen at 152.8-153.6 yuan (Bollinger Band lower rail pullback position), followed by 166.9 yuan (5-day line), with major resistance in the 189.6-198.3 yuan region (10-day and 20-day lines).

Pop Mart's current price is at the end of a weak phase; although there is a strong buy signal, any short-term rebound needs to first hold above 140.1 yuan support and quickly break through 153.6 yuan resistance, otherwise it will only be a technical rebound.

Consumer Retail Peer Analysis: Predominantly falling, with rebound signals distributed.

On March 30, the consumer retail sector was generally weak, with only China Resources Beer recording gains. Technical signals show a 'divergence between bulls and bears.' Below is a brief analysis of core peers:

1、 $MNSO (09896.HK)$ : Closed at 30.74 yuan (down 3.27%), below all major moving averages, with RSI at 30 (near oversold), signal buy (strength 9), already meeting conditions for a rebound.

2、 $CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK)$ : Closed at 10.82 yuan (down 0.18%), below all major moving averages, with RSI at 31 (near oversold), signal buy (strength 9), with rebound potential foreseeable.

3、 $CHINA RES BEER (00291.HK)$ : Closed at 25.34 yuan (up 1.85%), above MA10 but below MA30 and MA60, with RSI at 40 (neutral), signal sell (strength 8), with short-term rebound sustainability looking dim.

4、 $LI NING (02331.HK)$: Closed at 21.0 yuan (down 3.14%), above MA10 and MA30 but below MA60, RSI 52 (neutral-bullish), neutral signal (strength 8), short-term trend unclear.

Overall observation: Most stocks in the consumer retail sector declined; Pop Mart, Miniso, and Chow Tai Fook are showing buy signals and are close to being oversold, with strong expectations of a rebound; while China Resources Beer rose, it is showing a sell signal, requiring caution for risks; Li Ning and other stocks show neutral signals, suggesting cautious observation in the short term.

Warrant Review and Picks: Pop Mart products, following the rebound rhythm

First, let’s review the performance of the Pop Mart warrant bull/bear products recommended earlier: The put warrants and bear contracts recommended on March 24 benefited from the stock price decline, showing impressive gains, with $GJPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23043.HK)$ 、 $JPPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23040.HK)$ increases of 437% and 406% respectively after two days, perfectly aligning with the day's adjustment trend.

Selected two Pop Mart-related warrant products for your reference:

First one: $DSPOMRT@EC2712A.C (27649.HK)$, leverage 1.6, strike price 138, lowest implied volatility, suitable for investors optimistic about a technical rebound in Pop Mart.

Second one: $CTPOMRT@EP2607A.P (25143.HK)$, leverage 2.9, strike price 153.33, lowest implied volatility, suitable for investors concerned that Pop Mart may not hold support and could continue to fall.

Risk Warning: Pop Mart shows bullish technical signals but remains weak; strict stop-loss measures must be set for warrant trading, without blindly adding positions, as the rhythm of a rebound after an oversold condition is difficult to predict.

Pop Mart RSI 23 shows a strong buy signal; will you wait and see or try to make a move?

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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