Technical signals for the Hang Seng Index indicate a potential bottom formation, with volume confirmation being key to a rebound.

On the previous day (March 30th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The index closed at 24,750.79 points, down 0.81% on the day, with a trading volume of 285.435 billion yuan. Volume increased somewhat, but overall movement remained weak, still trapped in the recent range-bound adjustment pattern.

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index remains in a weak region, with closing prices below the MA10 (25,201.31 points), MA30 (25,821.27 points), and MA60 (26,303.34 points). The moving averages are trending downward overall, showing no significant reversal in the short- to medium-term trend.

In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI is at 38, which places it in a neutral-to-weak zone, close to oversold territory, reflecting that after continuous adjustments, selling pressure has eased and a technical rebound is gathering strength. A summary of technical indicators shows a “Buy” signal (signal strength 8), with multiple oscillators suggesting 'oversold, possible bottoming, buy,' hinting at a potential technical rebound in the near term for the Hang Seng Index.

Key support and resistance levels: Immediate support is at 24,205 points, followed by 23,486 points; resistance is first seen at 25,512 points, with further resistance at 26,217 points. The Hang Seng Index is currently oscillating at lower levels, with attention focused on whether the support levels can hold.

Despite a slight decline on higher volume the previous day, the Hang Seng Index showed a buy signal, indicating late-stage weakness during this adjustment phase. Close attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize above 24,800 points with strong volume going forward.

On March 30, key blue chips exhibited a general downward trend, with only China Construction Bank and China Mobile (00941) posting minor gains. Technical signals were notably mixed, with several stocks nearing oversold levels and showing buy signals. A brief analysis of selected core stocks follows:

1. Tencent (00700): Closed at HKD 481.6 (down 2.39%), below all major moving averages, RSI 30 (approaching oversold), signal: Buy (strength 11), strongest technical rebound demand.

2. Alibaba (09988): Closed at HKD 120.5 (down 1.71%), below all major moving averages, RSI 32 (approaching oversold), signal: Buy (strength 9), accumulated certain rebound conditions.

3. China Construction Bank (00939): Closed at HKD 8.24 (up 1.85%), above all major moving averages (maintaining bullish order), RSI 51 (neutral), signal: Buy (strength 7), but with technical divergence present; short-term pullback should be watched for.

4. Ping An (02318): Closed at HKD 58.9 (down 0.67%), below all major moving averages, RSI 35 (approaching oversold), signal: Buy (strength 9), rebound potential remains promising.

5. Xiaomi Group (01810): Closed at HKD 32.38 (down 1.88%), below all major moving averages, RSI 43 (neutral), signal: Buy (strength 9), meets technical rebound conditions.

6. Meituan (03690): Closed at HKD 84.2 (down 1.98%), above MA10 and MA30, below MA60, RSI 55 (moderately strong), signal: Neutral (strength 8), short-term trend unclear.

Overall Observation: Buy signals have emerged for Tencent, Alibaba, HKEX (00388), Ping An, and Xiaomi, most are near oversold levels, increasing expectations of a rebound. China Construction Bank has risen independently but shows technical divergence. Meituan, AIA (01299), HSBC (00005), and China Mobile show neutral signals, indicating the market is in a state of intertwined rebound expectations and short-term risks.

Review and Selection of Warrants: Hang Seng Index-related products offer potential rebound opportunities.

A review of previously recommended Hang Seng Index-related products such as put warrants and bear certificates: Recommended on March 24, they delivered solid gains. UBS Group's bear certificate (60799) and BOC's bear certificate (61183) both rose by 21% within two days, while JPMorgan's put warrant (22976) and BOC's put warrant (24183) gained 16% and 12%, respectively, perfectly aligning with the recent adjustment trend of the Hang Seng Index.

Here are two selected Hang Seng Index-related warrant products for your reference:

First: BNP Paribas call warrant (23939), leverage 18.9, strike price 26,600, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term technical rebound in the Hang Seng Index.

The second one: J.P. Morgan put warrant (22976), leverage 12, strike price 23,400, with the lowest premium and relatively higher leverage, suitable for investors concerned that Hang Seng Index may not hold the support level and continue to adjust.

Risk Warning: Hang Seng Index is currently in low-level fluctuations, with dense buy signals but no confirmed rebound; warrants trading requires extra caution. Whether buying calls or puts, reasonable stop-loss should be set, and act within your means.

The Hang Seng Index is showing bottoming signals but remains weak. What will you do? A. Bet on a rebound, buy call warrant 23939 at the current price. B. Expect a breakdown, buy put warrant 22976 at the current price. C. Wait for a breakout above 25,512 before chasing. D. Liquidate and exit, no more playing.

Feel free to share your insights in the comments section.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.。

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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