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Duan Yongping shifts his position to Pop Mart! Can the IP giant make a profitable move?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Mar 30 14:03

3.6 billion in southbound funds swept in + continuous company buybacks, can Pop Mart stabilize after hitting a new low?

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock hit a low of HK$140.1 today, marking an 11-month low, before rebounding to HK$153.6 at one point, and is currently trading at HK$149.7. After Pop Mart spent nearly HK$600 million on buybacks last Thursday (26th), it continued with more buybacks on Friday, albeit at half the intensity. Pop Mart announced that on Friday, it repurchased a total of 1.98 million shares on the market at prices ranging from HK$149.4 to HK$153 per share, at an average price of HK$151.24, spending nearly HK$300 million.
Currently, the stock has clearly broken below all major moving averages. Although the moving average system remains bearish, multiple momentum and volatility indicators have entered extreme oversold territory, suggesting the probability of a short-term technical rebound is increasing. Most notably, the RSI indicator has fallen to 23, which is in the severely oversold range, typically indicating that selling pressure may ease in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator also issued a buy signal in oversold conditions, while the CCI indicator turned towards a buy signal, further supporting the view that there is potential for a short-term rebound.
However, trend indicators remain cautious. The MACD signal continues to indicate a sell, Bollinger Bands show the stock price remains under pressure after touching the lower band, and the ADX indicator also points towards a sell, indicating the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed. This divergence between oscillation indicators (buy) and trend indicators (sell) is precisely the key contradiction point that short-term traders need to focus on: it hints at a rebound opportunity but also warns of possible renewed downward pressure after the rebound.
Important support levels: The first key support is at HK$128.8; if it breaks, the next strong support zone is at HK$92.6. Resistance levels above: The first hurdle for a near-term rebound is at HK$176.3; if it breaks through, the next target resistance is at HK$202.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock hit a low of HK$140.1 today, marking an 11-month low, before rebounding to HK$153.6 at one point, and is currently trading at HK$149.7. After Pop Mart spent nearly HK$600 million on buybacks last Thursday (26th), it continued with more buybacks on Friday, albeit at half the intensity. Pop Mart announced that on Friday, it repurchased a total of 1.98 million shares on the market at prices ranging from HK$149.4 to HK$153 per share, at an average price of HK$151.24, spending nearly HK$300 million. Currently, the stock has clearly broken below all major moving averages. Although the moving average system remains bearish, multiple momentum and volatility indicators have entered extreme oversold territory, suggesting the probability of a short-term technical rebound is increasing. Most notably, the RSI indicator has fallen to 23, which is in the severely oversold range, typically indicating that selling pressure may ease in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator also issued a buy signal in oversold conditions, while the CCI indicator turned towards a buy signal, further supporting the view that there is potential for a short-term rebound. However, trend indicators remain cautious. The MACD signal continues to indicate a sell, Bollinger Bands show the stock price remains under pressure after touching the lower band, and the ADX indicator also points towards a sell, indicating the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed. This divergence between oscillation indicators (buy) and trend indicators (sell) is precisely the key contradiction point that short-term traders need to focus on: it hints at a rebound opportunity but also warns of possible renewed downward pressure after the rebound. Key support...
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock hit a low of HK$140.1 today, marking an 11-month low, before rebounding to HK$153.6 at one point, and is currently trading at HK$149.7. After Pop Mart spent nearly HK$600 million on buybacks last Thursday (26th), it continued with more buybacks on Friday, albeit at half the intensity. Pop Mart announced that on Friday, it repurchased a total of 1.98 million shares on the market at prices ranging from HK$149.4 to HK$153 per share, at an average price of HK$151.24, spending nearly HK$300 million. Currently, the stock has clearly broken below all major moving averages. Although the moving average system remains bearish, multiple momentum and volatility indicators have entered extreme oversold territory, suggesting the probability of a short-term technical rebound is increasing. Most notably, the RSI indicator has fallen to 23, which is in the severely oversold range, typically indicating that selling pressure may ease in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator also issued a buy signal in oversold conditions, while the CCI indicator turned towards a buy signal, further supporting the view that there is potential for a short-term rebound. However, trend indicators remain cautious. The MACD signal continues to indicate a sell, Bollinger Bands show the stock price remains under pressure after touching the lower band, and the ADX indicator also points towards a sell, indicating the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed. This divergence between oscillation indicators (buy) and trend indicators (sell) is precisely the key contradiction point that short-term traders need to focus on: it hints at a rebound opportunity but also warns of possible renewed downward pressure after the rebound. Key support...
Overall, after Pop Mart experienced significant sell-offs, the technical indicators have reached an oversold condition. Multiple oscillation indicators are simultaneously signaling buy opportunities, suggesting that conditions for a short-term rebound are maturing. The 63% probability of an upward movement also provides some support. For professional investors, the current area can be viewed as an observation window for a potential short-term rebound, with an initial rebound target around 176.3 yuan. However, it is crucial to recognize that the intermediate trend recovery will require the stock price to stabilize above key moving averages (especially MA30) and receive confirmation from trend indicators like MACD. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the company's repurchase support level near 150 yuan.
Last week, Pop Mart saw net purchases of 3.684 billion yuan by southbound funds, while the derivatives market showed a notable divergence in open interest. From March 25 to 27, call warrant open interest increased continuously against the market trend, surging by 30.4% over three trading days, reflecting substantial bottom-fishing inflows betting on a temporary rebound amid the sharp price drop. Meanwhile, put warrant open interest continued to decline, falling by 22.9% over three days as short sellers quickly took profits after the major drop, indicating significantly reduced expectations for further sharp declines.
The bull-bear certificate market presented contrasting characteristics. Bull certificate open interest plummeted, dropping 73.8% over three days, mainly due to consecutive stock price crashes triggering forced liquidations of many high-strike bull certificates, showing that previously bullish positions had exited en masse. This also reflects ongoing caution about medium-term market trends. Bear certificate open interest similarly declined, dropping 15.2% over three days, as shorts also chose to take profits following the rapid stock price decline.
On March 24, 2026, Pop Mart fell 30.62% cumulatively over the next two trading days, with corresponding derivatives recording significant gains, including $GJPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23043.HK)$ a cumulative increase of 437%, $JPPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23040.HK)$ a 406% rise, $UB#POMRTRP2812K.P (67830.HK)$ a 230% rise, $HS#POMRTRP2812C.P (68843.HK)$ and a 218% rise.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock hit a low of HK$140.1 today, marking an 11-month low, before rebounding to HK$153.6 at one point, and is currently trading at HK$149.7. After Pop Mart spent nearly HK$600 million on buybacks last Thursday (26th), it continued with more buybacks on Friday, albeit at half the intensity. Pop Mart announced that on Friday, it repurchased a total of 1.98 million shares on the market at prices ranging from HK$149.4 to HK$153 per share, at an average price of HK$151.24, spending nearly HK$300 million. Currently, the stock has clearly broken below all major moving averages. Although the moving average system remains bearish, multiple momentum and volatility indicators have entered extreme oversold territory, suggesting the probability of a short-term technical rebound is increasing. Most notably, the RSI indicator has fallen to 23, which is in the severely oversold range, typically indicating that selling pressure may ease in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator also issued a buy signal in oversold conditions, while the CCI indicator turned towards a buy signal, further supporting the view that there is potential for a short-term rebound. However, trend indicators remain cautious. The MACD signal continues to indicate a sell, Bollinger Bands show the stock price remains under pressure after touching the lower band, and the ADX indicator also points towards a sell, indicating the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed. This divergence between oscillation indicators (buy) and trend indicators (sell) is precisely the key contradiction point that short-term traders need to focus on: it hints at a rebound opportunity but also warns of possible renewed downward pressure after the rebound. Key support...
If investors agree with the technical rebound view, they may consider DBS products, $DSPOMRT@EC2712A.C (27649.HK)$ with its strike price set at 138 yuan, characterized by having the lowest implied volatility among similar products on the market. This helps reduce the impact of time decay, allowing investors to better capture movements in the underlying stock price during a rebound trade. Conversely, if one believes the downtrend will persist, Citi's products may be worth noting. $CTPOMRT@EP2607A.P (25143.HK)$, with a strike price of 153.33 yuan, also stands out for having the lowest implied volatility, offering a cost-effective choice for hedging or bearish strategies.
For investors who prefer high leverage and can tolerate the risk of mandatory redemption, bull/bear contracts are more straightforward tools. Regarding bullish rebounds,$UB#POMRTRC2608D.C (67556.HK)$offers approximately 6.16 times effective leverage, with the mandatory redemption price set at 136 yuan, making it one of the highest-leveraged options available in the market, suitable for aggressive investors. For those preferring safer positioning closer to the current price,$SG#POMRTRC2612B.C (67864.HK)$has a mandatory redemption price of 130.8 yuan, with both premium and implied volatility being the lowest, providing higher defensive characteristics. As for investors who are bearish on the future market,$SG#POMRTRP28128.P (67855.HK)$provides approximately 4.2 times effective leverage, with the mandatory redemption price set at 180 yuan, making it the highest-leveraged product in that direction, ideal for capturing downward movements after a rebound attempt fails.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock hit a low of HK$140.1 today, marking an 11-month low, before rebounding to HK$153.6 at one point, and is currently trading at HK$149.7. After Pop Mart spent nearly HK$600 million on buybacks last Thursday (26th), it continued with more buybacks on Friday, albeit at half the intensity. Pop Mart announced that on Friday, it repurchased a total of 1.98 million shares on the market at prices ranging from HK$149.4 to HK$153 per share, at an average price of HK$151.24, spending nearly HK$300 million. Currently, the stock has clearly broken below all major moving averages. Although the moving average system remains bearish, multiple momentum and volatility indicators have entered extreme oversold territory, suggesting the probability of a short-term technical rebound is increasing. Most notably, the RSI indicator has fallen to 23, which is in the severely oversold range, typically indicating that selling pressure may ease in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator also issued a buy signal in oversold conditions, while the CCI indicator turned towards a buy signal, further supporting the view that there is potential for a short-term rebound. However, trend indicators remain cautious. The MACD signal continues to indicate a sell, Bollinger Bands show the stock price remains under pressure after touching the lower band, and the ADX indicator also points towards a sell, indicating the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed. This divergence between oscillation indicators (buy) and trend indicators (sell) is precisely the key contradiction point that short-term traders need to focus on: it hints at a rebound opportunity but also warns of possible renewed downward pressure after the rebound. Key support...
Do you think the sharp drop in Pop Mart's stock price amid high growth is due to an overreaction from the market or has a fundamental turning point arrived? At the current price level, do you see this as a good opportunity for short-term speculative rebounds, or should we wait for clearer trends before entering?
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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