Kuaishou (01024) Short-term Analysis: Technical Rebound Expected After Sharp Decline, 45.14 Yuan Becomes Key Support

As of March 27, 2026, Kuaishou (01024) closed at 45.82 yuan, experiencing a sharp single-day drop of 14.04% yesterday (March 26), with a trading volume reaching 9.104 billion yuan, indicating heavy selling pressure in the market. Observing from a technical structure perspective, the stock price has been continuously retreating from its recent high of 71.75 yuan and has fallen near the low of 45.14 yuan, showing an evidently weak short-term trend.

Short-term moving averages are all trending downwards, with MA10, MA30, and MA60 situated at 55.03 yuan, 61.24 yuan, and 68.26 yuan respectively, creating layered resistance. The 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and even 120-day lines are all under downward pressure, indicating that the short to medium-term trends are consistently bearish. Combining multiple technical indicators, the system issues a 'Buy' signal with a strength of 10. Multiple oscillation indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI both show oversold conditions, while the ROC indicator signals 'Bottom Divergence, Buy', reflecting a need for technical rebound after the short-term sharp decline. However, MACD signals and Bollinger Bands both indicate 'Sell', with RSI at a severely oversold level of 20, suggesting that although there may be a technical rebound due to the deep decline, the overall weak pattern remains unchanged. Based on technical analysis data, short-term support levels are at 42.2 yuan and 34.8 yuan, while resistance levels are located at 53.5 yuan and 63.5 yuan. The probability of increase is 66%, with a 5-day volatility as high as 22.4%, indicating extremely high stock price volatility.

In terms of market news, as of March 27, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks continued their weak performance. After Kuaishou's significant drop of over 14% yesterday, it slightly rebounded by about 1% during early trading today. According to reports from mainland media, the market is paying attention to Kuaishou's upcoming earnings performance and the impact of intensified competition in the live-streaming e-commerce industry on profit margins. Additionally, southbound funds net sold approximately 420 million Hong Kong dollars worth of Kuaishou shares yesterday, reflecting foreign capital and institutions remaining cautious about the short-term trend.

March 26 [Hong Kong Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - AIA, Kuaishou, JD.com

Integrating the views from the March 26 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast], the program analyzed the distribution of funds, noting that call warrant trading was most concentrated in the strike price range of 55 to 60 yuan, while put warrants were concentrated in the 65 to 70 yuan strike price range. In terms of street-level holdings, call warrants were most concentrated in the 95 to 100 yuan strike price range, while put warrants were concentrated in the 85 to 90 yuan range. This distribution indicates that although there is some bullish fund deployment in short-term trading, it mainly focuses on call warrants close to the current price; whereas street-level positions are concentrated at higher strike prices, reflecting that many previous bullish positions are still trapped at distant prices. Overall, the market has not formed a consistent bullish direction, as put warrants also show notable concentration in trading, and call warrant street-level positions have accumulated at distant prices, indicating that while there is still hope for a rebound, confidence is unstable, and more focus is on betting for a rebound at lower levels rather than confirming a trend reversal.

To directly respond to investors' questions, the first support level is seen at 45.14 yuan, which is currently the most important short-term defense line; if it breaks down below that, the next key levels will be 44 yuan to 42.44 yuan. Regarding the fact that some investors are bottom-fishing and buying bullish products with a strike price of 48.93 yuan, this thinking can be understood from the perspective of betting on a sharp rebound after a deep fall, as the RSI has weakened and the stock price is near recent lows, indeed providing conditions for a technical rebound. However, at present, all moving averages are sloping downward, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating the trend is still in a clear downtrend. Thus, such positioning is counter-trend speculation, not a directional trade. If 45.14 yuan holds firm and the stock price can quickly return above 49.3 yuan, this bottom-fishing strategy could become reasonable; but if 45.14 yuan fails, the short-term risk-reward ratio would quickly deteriorate, with risks significantly outweighing rewards. In other words, this kind of bottom-fishing isn't completely unfeasible, but it only suits very short-term plays, and must take whether recent lows hold as a core premise.

Reviewing the performance of the warrant market, according to the product review on March 24, the three products mentioned that day recorded significant increases over the following two days (up until March 26), successfully capturing the sharp decline in the underlying stock. Among them, UBS Group bear contract (62026) recorded a 68% increase, standing out the most; UBS Group put warrant (17479)$UBKUASO@EP2612A.P (17479.HK)$ and BOC put warrant (17484) $BIKUASO@EP2612A.P (17484.HK)$ recording respective increases of 46% and 39%. During the same period, the underlying stock fell by 13.64%, while the related bearish products and put warrants effectively performed their hedging and downside-capturing functions, demonstrating that appropriate derivatives can amplify returns in a clear downward trend.

Based on technical analysis, market conditions, and insights from Podcasts, Kuaishou is currently in an oversold state following a sharp decline. Investors should use 45.14 yuan as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. If the stock price can stabilize above this support, it may trigger a technical rebound, targeting resistances at 49.3 yuan and 53.5 yuan. A breach below would require looking towards supports at 42.2 yuan and 34.8 yuan. Below is an analysis of selected structured warrant and bull/bear certificate products with clearly defined terms, whose strike prices and barriers are closely linked to technical support and resistance levels:

For bullish deployment, consider Macquarie call warrant (27056) $MBKUASO@EC2607A.C (27056.HK)$ and BOC call warrant (29806) $BIKUASO@EC2607A.C (29806.HK)$ . Their exercise prices are 48.88 yuan and 48.93 yuan respectively, slightly above the first resistance level of 53.5 yuan, making them mildly out-of-the-money structures. The advantage of Macquarie call warrant (27056) lies in its highest leverage (4.7x) and lowest implied volatility; BOC call warrant (29806) stands out for having the lowest premium and implied volatility, with a leverage of 4.9x. Both are suitable for investors expecting the share price to rebound and reclaim the 49.3 yuan resistance. For those seeking exposure closer to the support level for a rebound, Societe Generale bull certificate (65239) with a barrier at 42 yuan, below the second support at 42.2 yuan, offers greater buffer space. Its key advantage is the lowest premium with actual leverage at 7.2x, appealing to investors betting on a deep rebound.

For bearish deployment, consider BOC put warrant (17484) $BIKUASO@EP2612A.P (17484.HK)$ and UBS Group put warrant (17479) $UBKUASO@EP2612A.P (17479.HK)$ . Their strike prices are 49.93 yuan and 49.83 yuan respectively, higher than the current price of 45.6 yuan, qualifying as out-of-the-money structures. The advantage of BOC put warrant (17484) is its highest leverage (1.9x) and relatively lower premium; UBS Group put warrant (17479) stands out for its relatively higher leverage (2x). Both are suitable for investors expecting weak rebounds and continued tests of support levels. Given the weakness in the underlying stock, bear certificates may also be considered, but with caution regarding rebound risks.

Overall, Kuaishou is currently in an oversold condition following a sharp decline. Investors should take 45.14 yuan as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. If it holds firm, a rebound can be anticipated; if breached, further downside needs to be considered. When selecting derivative products, investors should balance leverage against the distance to barriers/strike prices based on their judgment of market direction and momentum, while keeping in mind the Podcast insight that '45.14 yuan is the most critical short-term defensive level.'

Interactive Questions

Do you think Kuaishou (01024) can hold the support at HKD 45.14 in the short term and rebound?

A. Yes, it is severely oversold and could see a technical rebound

B. No, its weakness remains and it will likely test the next support at HKD 42.2

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section and follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used alongside other information to comprehensively assess asset performance; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny’s HK warrants for more professional insights.

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