[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, HSBC, CNOOC, AIA, Kuaishou, JD.com - Post-market analysis on March 26

: Bullish investors observed an additional HKD 600 million in bullish contracts and a withdrawal of HKD 400 million in bearish contracts in the last hour, anticipating a rebound. They chose to hold bullish contracts overnight with a recovery price of 24,000; Bearish investors believe that after breaking through the bull-bear line for the second time, the market will continue to fall tomorrow, with support at 24,200, and opted to hold bearish contracts overnight.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index is 24,856.43 points, still trading within the recent obvious range of 24,203.54 points to 27,325.98 points in the short term, with an overall range fluctuation of about 12.9%. Based on the current price position, the index is already close to the lower half of the range, indicating that the market has not fully recovered after the previous decline. Short-term support is first seen around 24,200 points, which is quite close to the recent low. If it breaks below this again, it means selling pressure hasn't been fully digested; Resistance levels above are first seen between 25,000 and 25,200 points. If the index can stabilize again, there may be opportunities for further testing near 25,500 points. Currently, the index is still running within a weak range and hasn't escaped the downward pressure pattern.

In terms of technical conditions, the moving average direction is still downward, indicating that the medium- and short-term trend has not reversed, and the rebound is only a technical recovery within a weak trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also weak, showing insufficient market follow-through, and funds remain cautious about chasing upward prices. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing, and the price is close to the lower band, indicating that although the index has fallen near a short-term weak area, it also reflects that no clear strengthening signal has been seen at this stage. It can only be said that there might be a technical rebound in the short term, but it’s insufficient to confirm the beginning of a new upward trend.

If we consider upside conditions, for the Hang Seng Index to have a meaningful rebound, the first trigger condition is that it must hold the support zone near 24,200 to 24,250 points while regaining the level above 25,000 points. Only by holding the recent low and then breaking back above 25,000 points will the market have the conditions to confirm a slowdown in the short-term downtrend, allowing the rebound to extend to near 25,200 or even 25,500 points. If there is only an intraday spike without stabilizing above 25,000 points, the rebound momentum remains limited, more likely being a temporary pullback within weakness.

Downside risks are quite clear, with the trigger condition being another drop below the 24,200-point support zone. Particularly if it fails to quickly recover after breaking down, it would indicate that the market is further confirming the continuation of weakness. At that point, the position near the lower band might not provide support and could instead evolve into a signal for further downward exploration, significantly increasing short-term risks. In other words, 24,200 points is currently the most important short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding above this level provides a basis for a rebound, while breaking below indicates that the bears have regained control.

In terms of capital distribution, the trading of bull and bear certificates mainly concentrates in the range of 24,600 to 24,799 points for bull certificates and 25,400 to 25,799 points for bear certificates. This indicates that short-term funds are primarily deployed around levels close to the current position, reflecting that market focus remains on short-term fluctuations rather than one-sided bets. Regarding open interest, the most concentrated range for bull certificates is between 24,000 and 24,199 points, while for bear certificates it is between 25,400 and 25,799 points. This represents a larger accumulation of bull certificates near the 24,000-point level and a significant buildup of bear certificates between 25,400 and 25,799 points. This distribution implies that the market has not formed a highly unified directional bias, as there are noticeable concentrations of positions on both sides, indicative of a typical range-bound trading pattern rather than extreme consensus on either bullish or bearish outlooks.

If addressing investors' questions, the bullish side noticed an inflow of 600 million into bull certificates and an outflow of 400 million from bear certificates in the last hour. From a fund flow perspective, this can indeed be interpreted as short-term capital attempting to bet on a rebound, which is not entirely without merit, especially as the index approaches recent lows and technically satisfies conditions for a rebound. However, relying solely on end-of-day fund flows is insufficient to confirm direction, as the overall technical structure remains weak. Additionally, the distance between the current level and the 24,000-point call price for bull certificates is not particularly wide; once 24,200 points are breached, overnight risks would significantly increase. Therefore, such rebound speculation only qualifies as high-risk short-term trading—reasonable but not excessively optimistic.

As for bearish investors who believe the index has broken through the bull-bear dividing line for the second time and will fall further tomorrow, with support seen at 24,200 points, this view aligns more closely with the current overall weak structure. With downward-moving averages, a weak RSI, and prices near the lower Bollinger Band, no reversal signals have emerged yet. However, the index is nearing recent low areas, and if buying emerges again near 24,200 points, chasing bearish bets may not offer high reward potential since downside room might be limited, whereas rebound risk increases.

Overall, both perspectives have their merits, but if we only consider short-term value odds, this is not an ideal one-sided position. The bullish side bets on a technical rebound near support levels, which is logically valid, but hinges on the premise that the 24,200-point level holds firm. On the bearish side, they are following the prevailing trend, which aligns better with the current technical structure, but holding bearish contracts overnight near support yields only moderate value odds. The clearest takeaway is that the market currently lacks a unified direction, trapped in a weak trading range. The most effective approach would be to wait for a decisive breakout above 24,200 or 25,000 before determining the next steps, rather than relying purely on subjective views of upward or downward movement.

2. HSBC Holdings (00005.HK): Investors believe that despite the broad market decline, HSBC’s drop has been relatively mild, and its performance remains relatively strong. Is there support at HKD 120? Some investors are deploying call warrants.

HSBC Holdings is currently trading at HKD 124.8, remaining within a consolidation range after a notable recent pullback. The stock has retreated from a recent high of HKD 140.8 to a low of HKD 118.5, representing an approximate 18.8% fluctuation. At the current price, the share price is in the lower-middle part of this range, indicating that although the decline has been milder compared to the broader market, the overall trend remains weak. Immediate support lies around HKD 123 to 122, the nearest support zone below the current price, followed by HKD 120—a psychologically significant level and a defensive line after recent volatility. A breach here could lead to a retest of the recent low at HKD 118.5. Resistance is first seen at HKD 126 to 128, near overlapping short- to medium-term moving averages, with the next resistance at around HKD 130. Failure to break above this would constrain any rebound.

Technically, the moving averages remain downward-sloping, signaling that the intermediate-term trend hasn’t officially reversed. The current phase should be viewed as consolidation after a decline rather than a confirmed resumption of an uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around neutral-to-weak levels, approximately near 50, showing that selling pressure has eased somewhat but buying power isn't particularly strong either. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the price closer to the lower half of the bands, suggesting reduced volatility as the market awaits the next directional cue. The key takeaway from this pattern isn’t just that smaller declines equate to strength; what matters is whether a genuine upward breakout occurs.

To confirm an upward bias, the first trigger would be for the stock price to hold firmly above the HKD 123 to 122 support zone while reclaiming and stabilizing above HKD 126. A further breakthrough above HKD 128 would indicate that the short-term rebound has momentum, creating conditions to challenge resistance near HKD 130. In other words, the current perception of 'relatively strong performance' simply means slower declines and greater resilience against drops, but it doesn’t automatically imply a trend reversal until the resistance zone between HKD 126 and 128 is decisively reclaimed.

On the downside risk, the triggering condition is also clear: if the stock price falls below HKD 122 and fails to recover quickly, especially if it breaches HKD 120 again, this would indicate that the previously perceived psychological support level failed to hold. The market would then shift focus to testing the recent low of HKD 118.5. At that point, the short-term weakness would become more pronounced, breaking the current sideways consolidation state and increasing downward pressure.

In terms of warrant capital distribution, call warrant trading is concentrated in the HKD 145 to 150 strike price range, while put warrant trading focuses in the HKD 110 to 115 strike price range. This reflects deployment on both sides, with funds primarily oscillating between higher-strike call warrants and lower-strike put warrants, showing divergence over future direction. Open interest in call warrants is heaviest in the HKD 145 to 150 strike range, while for put warrants, it's concentrated in the HKD 100 to 105 strike range. This indicates that there are more bullish positions accumulated above the current price, but also some bearish positions below, meaning the market hasn’t formed a strongly unified directional bet. Instead, it seems to be awaiting the next breakout signal around the current price.

Directly addressing investor concerns, the observation that the broader market is falling but HSBC’s decline is relatively small, showing resilience, is valid as the stock hasn’t plummeted like some others. However, when asked if 120 yuan serves as a solid support, the answer is that while 120 yuan can be considered a key support level, it isn't unconditional—it depends on whether significant buying emerges near that level and if it can hold above 122 yuan. Just approaching 120 yuan doesn’t guarantee it will hold. Regarding investors deploying Call warrants, this makes sense from a 'betting on a technical rebound' perspective, but given the moving averages are still sloping downward and resistance hasn’t been broken, such moves are speculative rebounds rather than confirmed trends. In terms of short-term value odds, unless the price stabilizes above 126 yuan, directly chasing Calls now offers only average value odds due to nearby overhead resistance and lingering downside risks around 120 yuan. Conversely, if it breaks through 126 to 128 yuan, the rebound case—and value odds—would become clearer.

3、CNOOC (00883.HK): Investors ask if there is a chance for a new high? In the warrant market, investors are holding call warrants with a strike price of HKD 35.32.

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is currently trading at HKD 29.22, and the share price remains in a consolidation range after a recent notable rise. From a recent low of HKD 24.12 to a high of HKD 30.98, the overall fluctuation is about 28.4%, and the current price is towards the upper-middle part of the range, reflecting that the overall trend is still strong, though short-term it has entered a tug-of-war phase near previous highs. Immediate support is seen at HKD 28.80 to HKD 28.50, close to the recent consolidation bottom and near short-term moving averages. Further below, support lies between HKD 27.90 and HKD 27.20; falling into this zone would indicate a slowdown in short-term upward momentum. Resistance is first seen at HKD 29.80 to HKD 30.00, which is near the prior high-pressure area, with the next key resistance at the recent high of HKD 30.98, marking the critical level for breaking new highs.

On the technical side, the moving averages remain upward, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines maintaining a mid-term uptrend structure, indicating the major trend hasn't weakened. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral yet strong position, reflecting continued buying power without entering an extreme acceleration phase, suggesting that while conditions exist for testing higher levels, short-term additional momentum is needed. Bollinger Bands are showing signs of narrowing, with the price near the upper band, indicating the market is consolidating at high levels with narrowing short-term volatility, awaiting a breakout or pullback to determine direction.

For a genuine upward move and challenge to break new highs, the trigger conditions are clear: the stock must first firmly hold the support zone of HKD 28.80 to HKD 28.50 before breaking through the resistance zone of HKD 29.80 to HKD 30.00. Most importantly, it needs to effectively surpass HKD 30.98. Only when the price breaks and stabilizes above the previous high can it be considered a valid breakout; otherwise, the current stage should still be viewed as high-level consolidation rather than a new upward wave.

The downside risks are also evident, with the trigger being a failure to quickly recover after breaking below HKD 28.50, signaling weakening short-term consolidation. If the price further falls below the HKD 27.90 to HKD 27.20 range, it indicates that the original upward rhythm has been disrupted, shifting the market from high-level consolidation to a more pronounced pullback, reducing the likelihood of retesting the previous high. Thus, although the overall trend remains positive, the current level isn’t low, so caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks if support levels are breached.

Regarding warrant capital distribution, call warrant trading is concentrated in the HKD 35 to HKD 36 strike price range, while put warrant activity focuses around the HKD 22 to HKD 23 strike price zone. This indicates short-term capital still shows bullish deployment, primarily in out-of-the-money call warrants, reflecting market optimism about upside potential but also carrying aggressive elements. On the street inventory side, call warrants are most concentrated around the HKD 28 to HKD 29 strike prices, and put warrants focus on the HKD 18 to HKD 19 range, showing bullish positions aggregating closer to the current price while bearish positions are distributed at lower levels. Overall, the market isn't entirely one-sided, but capital clearly leans toward call warrants, though this bullish deployment isn't extreme, remaining cautiously optimistic.

Responding directly to investors’ questions about the possibility of breaking new highs, the answer is yes, it's possible, but not yet a certainty. The current trend remains strong, with upward-moving averages and the price maintaining mid-to-high levels, offering conditions for retesting the previous high of 30.98 yuan. However, a true breakout requires surpassing and stabilizing above 29.80–30.00 yuan before challenging 30.98 yuan; otherwise, the risk of pullbacks after hovering at highs remains. Regarding holding call warrants with a strike price of 35.32 yuan, this represents a more aggressive bet on extended gains beyond the previous high. While not unreasonable, the share price must quickly break the previous high; otherwise, prolonged consolidation around 29–30 yuan would lead to noticeable time decay for these deep out-of-the-money calls, reducing short-term value odds. In short, betting on a short-term breakout is logical but requires immediate market cooperation; without clear breakout signals, merely holding these warrants offers only moderate value odds.

4. AIA (01299.HK): Will it challenge 90 yuan? Investors see support at 82 yuan, with potential for a rebound, holding bullish contracts with a stop-loss at 76 yuan.

AIA is currently trading at HKD 87, remaining within the recent clear range of HKD 78.7 to HKD 88 in the short term, with an overall fluctuation of about 11.8%. Based on the current price, the stock has approached the upper half of this range, reflecting that after rebounding from its previous low, it has gradually neared the resistance level. In terms of support levels, first look near HKD 85 to HKD 84.3, which is close to the convergence of several short-to-medium-term moving averages; further down is around HKD 82, which can be regarded as a more evident medium-to-short-term support zone. Regarding resistance levels, first check HKD 88, the recent high. If it breaks through, the next target will be the psychological threshold of HKD 90. Therefore, the focus of the current trend is clear: whether the stock can break upward from the upper boundary of the range and create more room for growth.

In terms of technical status, the moving averages are entangled, indicating that although the stock price has recovered from its lows, the medium- to short-term direction has not fully shifted into a one-sided uptrend. At this stage, it appears more like consolidation before attempting to break upwards. The Relative Strength Index is neutral-leaning-strong, showing that buying pressure is slightly dominant but not yet at an extremely strong level, implying that while the stock has a foundation for a rebound, further trading volume and price action are still needed. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing, and the stock price is close to the upper band, typically representing that the market is nearing a short-term inflection point. If it successfully breaks through, the stock price could accelerate; however, if constrained by the upper band and previous highs, it may easily return to range-bound fluctuations.

To confirm an upward move and challenge HKD 90, the triggering condition is quite clear: the stock price must first effectively break above HKD 88, the recent high, and stabilize above it. If it merely touches HKD 88 during intraday trading but fails to close above it, it would only be considered a test and insufficient to confirm a breakout. Only a real breakout above HKD 88 and staying above it would allow the market to have the conditions to advance further toward HKD 90. In other words, HKD 90 is achievable, but the premise is not solely relying on 'a feeling of a rebound'; instead, it needs to first overcome the actual resistance level of HKD 88.

Regarding downside risks, the triggering condition is also clear: if the stock price falls below the dense moving average support zone of HKD 84.3 to HKD 85, it indicates weakening short-term upward momentum. If it subsequently loses support at HKD 82, it shows that the original rebound structure has been broken, and the stock price could retest the recent low of HKD 78.7. In other words, HKD 82 is indeed a noteworthy support level, but this support is not absolutely safe. If it breaks below and fails to quickly recover, the market will turn weak again.

In terms of capital distribution, warrant trading is most concentrated in the call warrant strike price range of HKD 90 to 95, while put warrants are concentrated in the HKD 65 to 70 strike price range. The distribution of outstanding warrants is also quite similar, with call warrants most concentrated in the HKD 90 to 95 strike price range, and put warrants concentrated in the HKD 65 to 70 strike price range. This indicates that market funds are clearly more focused on upward potential, as both trading and outstanding warrant focus lie primarily in the higher call warrant region. However, put warrants are not entirely absent, so the market cannot be considered extremely one-sided. It can only be said that bullish sentiment is more prominent, but there is still some divergence.

Addressing the question of whether it will challenge 90 yuan, the answer is yes, it’s possible—but only after breaking through 88 yuan; otherwise, 90 remains just the next target rather than an imminent milestone. The view that 82 yuan provides support is reasonable, as it serves as an important mid-term defensive zone. However, with the current price already at 87 yuan, using 82 as primary support introduces wider risk margins, making it less than ideal for short-term entry. Holding bullish contracts with a stop-loss at 76 yuan offers slightly better safety margins than closer-priced options, but with resistance near 88 yuan, upside potential is limited, yielding only moderate short-term value odds. If it effectively breaks 88, this view becomes more compelling; however, failure to do so—or falling back below 85—weakens the rebound logic.

5. Kuaishou-W (01024.HK): What’s the support level looking at? Some investors are bottom-fishing, buying bull contracts with a strike price of 48.93 yuan.

Kuaishou’s current price is HKD 45.6, with the stock having fallen near the bottom of its recent range, showing clear short-term weakness. The decline from the recent high of HKD 71.75 to the low of HKD 45.14 represents an overall fluctuation of approximately 58.9%. The current price is almost touching the recent low, reflecting continued heavy selling pressure. Short-term support is first seen at HKD 45.14, the most obvious recent low. If it breaks below that, the next support is in the HKD 44 to HKD 42.44 range, where HKD 42.44 is also the 52-week low, providing meaningful reference. On the resistance side, initial resistance is around HKD 49.3 to HKD 49.5, near the lower Bollinger Band after it started breaking down. Further up, resistance lies between HKD 51.4 and HKD 52.3, close to the 5-day moving average and the top of the recent sideways range. If these levels aren't reclaimed, the overall trend remains a weak rebound pattern.

From a technical perspective, all moving averages are sloping downward, including the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 120-day lines, indicating consistent bearish trends in both the short and medium term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is notably weak, with the short-term RSI nearing oversold territory, suggesting that although there may be a technical rebound due to the deep fall, no definitive signs of strengthening are visible yet. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the stock price close to the lower band, typically signaling that the downtrend is continuing and volatility is increasing. The market has not entered a stable consolidation phase but is still digesting selling pressure.

For a higher-quality upward move to occur, triggering conditions must be clear. First, the stock price must hold above the recent low of HKD 45.14 and avoid setting new lows. Second, it must quickly reclaim levels above HKD 49.3, recovering the lost ground near the lower Bollinger Band. Third, if it can stabilize above HKD 51.4 to HKD 52.3, then it would indicate that the short-term downtrend is starting to slow significantly. If the price only rebounds weakly within the HKD 45 to HKD 48 range without breaking through the HKD 49.3 to HKD 52 resistance zone, it should be viewed merely as technical recovery from a deep fall and not confirmation of a bottom.

Downside risks are equally straightforward, with the trigger condition being a failure to hold above HKD 45.14, followed by an inability to quickly recover. If this happens, it means the recent low defense line has been breached, prompting the market to test further downside toward HKD 44 or even push toward the 52-week low of HKD 42.44. In other words, the current so-called bottom fishing assumes that HKD 45.14 won’t be breached again. Otherwise, it wouldn’t be considered catching a falling knife but rather riding the downward wave.

In terms of capital distribution, trading in call warrants is most concentrated in the HKD 55 to 60 strike price range, while put warrants see concentration in the HKD 65 to 70 strike price range. For outstanding positions, call warrants are most heavily accumulated in the HKD 95 to 100 strike price range, while put warrants are clustered in the HKD 85 to 90 range. This distribution shows that although there are bullish positions being deployed in the short term, they are mainly concentrated in call warrant areas closer to the current price. Meanwhile, outstanding positions are concentrated in higher strike price zones, indicating that many previously bullish positions remain trapped at far-out-of-the-money levels. Overall, the market hasn’t formed a consensus on a bullish direction because put warrants also show noticeable concentration in trading, while call warrant outstanding positions have accumulated in distant strike prices. This suggests that while there is still hope for a rebound, confidence remains unstable, with more focus on bottom fishing rather than confirming a trend reversal.

To directly respond to investors' questions, the first support level is seen at 45.14 yuan, which is currently the most important short-term defense line; if it breaks down below that, the next key levels will be 44 yuan to 42.44 yuan. Regarding the fact that some investors are bottom-fishing and buying bullish products with a strike price of 48.93 yuan, this thinking can be understood from the perspective of betting on a sharp rebound after a deep fall, as the RSI has weakened and the stock price is near recent lows, indeed providing conditions for a technical rebound. However, at present, all moving averages are sloping downward, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating the trend is still in a clear downtrend. Thus, such positioning is counter-trend speculation, not a directional trade. If 45.14 yuan holds firm and the stock price can quickly return above 49.3 yuan, this bottom-fishing strategy could become reasonable; but if 45.14 yuan fails, the short-term risk-reward ratio would quickly deteriorate, with risks significantly outweighing rewards. In other words, this kind of bottom-fishing isn't completely unfeasible, but it only suits very short-term plays, and must take whether recent lows hold as a core premise.

6. JD.com-SW (09618.HK): Investors say a double bottom has formed and the lows are gradually rising; after stabilizing above 113 yuan, can it test 120 yuan? Keep an eye on call warrants at 126.98 yuan.

JD.com's current price is 113.6 yuan, with short-term momentum showing clear improvement compared to the previous period. The stock price is currently within the recent trading range of 95.9 yuan to 116.3 yuan, with an overall fluctuation of about 21.3%. Based on the current position, the stock price has returned to the upper half of the range and is approaching the recent high, reflecting a significant inflow of funds. However, it also indicates that upward resistance is starting to build. On the support side, the immediate level to watch is near 113 yuan, which is the most crucial short-term support at present. Below that, the 110 yuan to 107 yuan region serves as the next support zone, close to where several medium- and short-term moving averages converge. A break below this would shift the short-term trend from bullish back to sideways. On the resistance side, the first level to watch is 116.3 yuan, the recent high. A breakout above this would pave the way for a move towards 120 yuan.

Regarding the technical status, moving averages are currently tangled but slightly improving, reflecting that after a period of consolidation, the stock price is attempting to shift from sideways movement to a stronger trend, though it hasn’t reached a fully one-sided uptrend yet. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a relatively strong state, indicating that short-term buying power has increased, and market sentiment has improved significantly compared to earlier. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing, and the stock price is close to the upper band, representing that volatility is starting to compress while prices are nearing the upper end of the range, meaning the market has entered a position close to a breakout. If it can break through smoothly, the upward momentum might accelerate; if it fails to break through, it’s likely to remain volatile at higher levels.

In terms of upside conditions, the most critical trigger is for the stock price to stabilize above 113 yuan and subsequently break through the recent high of 116.3 yuan. Only after holding above 113 yuan and effectively breaking through 116.3 yuan will the market have sufficient conditions to push the short-term target towards 120 yuan. If the stock merely stays above 113 yuan but fails to break through the 116 yuan area, the trend would still be consolidating within the range rather than initiating a new upward phase.

On the downside risk, the trigger condition is equally clear: if the stock falls below 113 yuan and fails to recover quickly, it would indicate that the recently established bullish rhythm is beginning to deteriorate. In this scenario, there could be a retest of the 110 yuan to 107 yuan support zone. If 107 yuan is also breached, it would suggest that the market’s view of gradually raising the lows is being questioned, reducing the likelihood of another attempt at 120 yuan.

Regarding warrant capital distribution, call warrant trading is concentrated in the strike price range of 135 yuan to 140 yuan, while put warrants focus on the 95 yuan to 100 yuan range. For street-level positions, call warrants are heavily concentrated around the 115 yuan to 120 yuan strike price, whereas put warrants center around the 105 yuan to 110 yuan range. This distribution shows that the market is not entirely aligned on future direction, but bullish capital deployment is closer to current price levels, especially with street-level concentration in the 115 yuan to 120 yuan area, reflecting that much of the capital is positioning around whether the stock price can test higher levels. Meanwhile, the concentration of put warrants in lower ranges suggests bearish views still exist, though they do not dominate at this stage. Overall, market sentiment leans cautiously bullish but is far from a unanimous one-sided bet.

Directly responding to investors’ questions, the observation that a double bottom has formed and the lows are gradually rising has some reasonability because recent lows do show signs of gradual elevation, and the current price has returned above 113 yuan, showing short-term structural improvement compared to before. However, to further judge whether it can test 120 yuan, the key isn't just holding steady above 113 yuan but breaking through 116.3 yuan afterward. In other words, staying above 113 yuan is a condition for maintaining a strong rhythm, but surpassing 116.3 yuan is the real trigger for testing 120 yuan. As for keeping an eye on call warrants at 126.98 yuan, such products clearly represent out-of-the-money positions, implying a direct bet on further stock price breakthroughs and extended gains. This idea isn’t unreasonable, but the prerequisite is that JD.com must break through 116.3 yuan quickly; otherwise, if it merely fluctuates between 113 yuan and 116 yuan, time decay for these out-of-the-money call warrants would be more noticeable, making their short-term risk-reward less attractive. Overall, the view that testing 120 yuan is possible stands, but it’s “conditionally valid,” not confirmed yet. If it holds above 113 yuan and breaks through 116.3 yuan, the reward potential improves; if it fails to break through, caution should still be exercised against a pullback after high-level consolidation.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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