March 26 [Hong Kong Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - AIA, Kuaishou, JD.com

1. AIA (01299.HK): Will it challenge HKD 90? Investors believe there is support at HKD 82, with a chance to rebound upwards. Holding bull certificates with a stop-loss price of HKD 76.

AIA is currently trading at HKD 87, remaining within the recent clear range of HKD 78.7 to HKD 88 in the short term, with an overall fluctuation of about 11.8%. Based on the current price, the stock has approached the upper half of this range, reflecting that after rebounding from its previous low, it has gradually neared the resistance level. In terms of support levels, first look near HKD 85 to HKD 84.3, which is close to the convergence of several short-to-medium-term moving averages; further down is around HKD 82, which can be regarded as a more evident medium-to-short-term support zone. Regarding resistance levels, first check HKD 88, the recent high. If it breaks through, the next target will be the psychological threshold of HKD 90. Therefore, the focus of the current trend is clear: whether the stock can break upward from the upper boundary of the range and create more room for growth.

In terms of technical status, the moving averages are entangled, indicating that although the stock price has recovered from its lows, the medium- to short-term direction has not fully shifted into a one-sided uptrend. At this stage, it appears more like consolidation before attempting to break upwards. The Relative Strength Index is neutral-leaning-strong, showing that buying pressure is slightly dominant but not yet at an extremely strong level, implying that while the stock has a foundation for a rebound, further trading volume and price action are still needed. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing, and the stock price is close to the upper band, typically representing that the market is nearing a short-term inflection point. If it successfully breaks through, the stock price could accelerate; however, if constrained by the upper band and previous highs, it may easily return to range-bound fluctuations.

To confirm an upward move and challenge HKD 90, the triggering condition is quite clear: the stock price must first effectively break above HKD 88, the recent high, and stabilize above it. If it merely touches HKD 88 during intraday trading but fails to close above it, it would only be considered a test and insufficient to confirm a breakout. Only a real breakout above HKD 88 and staying above it would allow the market to have the conditions to advance further toward HKD 90. In other words, HKD 90 is achievable, but the premise is not solely relying on 'a feeling of a rebound'; instead, it needs to first overcome the actual resistance level of HKD 88.

Regarding downside risks, the triggering condition is also clear: if the stock price falls below the dense moving average support zone of HKD 84.3 to HKD 85, it indicates weakening short-term upward momentum. If it subsequently loses support at HKD 82, it shows that the original rebound structure has been broken, and the stock price could retest the recent low of HKD 78.7. In other words, HKD 82 is indeed a noteworthy support level, but this support is not absolutely safe. If it breaks below and fails to quickly recover, the market will turn weak again.

In terms of capital distribution, warrant trading is most concentrated in the call warrant strike price range of HKD 90 to 95, while put warrants are concentrated in the HKD 65 to 70 strike price range. The distribution of outstanding warrants is also quite similar, with call warrants most concentrated in the HKD 90 to 95 strike price range, and put warrants concentrated in the HKD 65 to 70 strike price range. This indicates that market funds are clearly more focused on upward potential, as both trading and outstanding warrant focus lie primarily in the higher call warrant region. However, put warrants are not entirely absent, so the market cannot be considered extremely one-sided. It can only be said that bullish sentiment is more prominent, but there is still some divergence.

Directly addressing investors' questions about whether there will be a challenge to HKD 90, the answer is that it's possible, but a breakthrough above HKD 88 must first occur; otherwise, HKD 90 remains just the next target rather than an immediate path. As for considering HKD 82 as support, this view is basically reasonable because HKD 82 can indeed be seen as an important defensive area in the medium term. However, the current price has already risen to HKD 87, which is a distance away from HKD 82. If one were to now use HKD 82 as the primary support level for a rebound, it would imply a relatively broad risk control space, making it not the most ideal short-term entry point. Holding bull certificates with a redemption price at HKD 76 offers a slightly better safety margin compared to close-to-price bull certificates. But since the stock price is currently near the resistance zone of HKD 88, upside potential hasn’t fully opened up, resulting in only moderate attractiveness in the short term. If there’s an effective breakout above HKD 88 later, this perspective would become more convincing. However, if it fails to break HKD 88 or even falls back below HKD 85, the rebound logic will start weakening. $JP#AIA RC2806A.C (64100.HK)$$UB#AIA RC2706A.C (69178.HK)$$UB-AIA @EC2612A.C (22905.HK)$$BI-AIA @EC2612A.C (22387.HK)$

2. Kuaishou-W (01024.HK): What’s the support level? Some investors have flipped to buy the dip, purchasing bull certificates with a strike price of HKD 48.93.

Kuaishou’s current price is HKD 45.6, with the stock having fallen near the bottom of its recent range, showing clear short-term weakness. The decline from the recent high of HKD 71.75 to the low of HKD 45.14 represents an overall fluctuation of approximately 58.9%. The current price is almost touching the recent low, reflecting continued heavy selling pressure. Short-term support is first seen at HKD 45.14, the most obvious recent low. If it breaks below that, the next support is in the HKD 44 to HKD 42.44 range, where HKD 42.44 is also the 52-week low, providing meaningful reference. On the resistance side, initial resistance is around HKD 49.3 to HKD 49.5, near the lower Bollinger Band after it started breaking down. Further up, resistance lies between HKD 51.4 and HKD 52.3, close to the 5-day moving average and the top of the recent sideways range. If these levels aren't reclaimed, the overall trend remains a weak rebound pattern.

From a technical perspective, all moving averages are sloping downward, including the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 120-day lines, indicating consistent bearish trends in both the short and medium term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is notably weak, with the short-term RSI nearing oversold territory, suggesting that although there may be a technical rebound due to the deep fall, no definitive signs of strengthening are visible yet. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the stock price close to the lower band, typically signaling that the downtrend is continuing and volatility is increasing. The market has not entered a stable consolidation phase but is still digesting selling pressure.

For a higher-quality upward move to occur, triggering conditions must be clear. First, the stock price must hold above the recent low of HKD 45.14 and avoid setting new lows. Second, it must quickly reclaim levels above HKD 49.3, recovering the lost ground near the lower Bollinger Band. Third, if it can stabilize above HKD 51.4 to HKD 52.3, then it would indicate that the short-term downtrend is starting to slow significantly. If the price only rebounds weakly within the HKD 45 to HKD 48 range without breaking through the HKD 49.3 to HKD 52 resistance zone, it should be viewed merely as technical recovery from a deep fall and not confirmation of a bottom.

Downside risks are equally straightforward, with the trigger condition being a failure to hold above HKD 45.14, followed by an inability to quickly recover. If this happens, it means the recent low defense line has been breached, prompting the market to test further downside toward HKD 44 or even push toward the 52-week low of HKD 42.44. In other words, the current so-called bottom fishing assumes that HKD 45.14 won’t be breached again. Otherwise, it wouldn’t be considered catching a falling knife but rather riding the downward wave.

In terms of capital distribution, trading in call warrants is most concentrated in the HKD 55 to 60 strike price range, while put warrants see concentration in the HKD 65 to 70 strike price range. For outstanding positions, call warrants are most heavily accumulated in the HKD 95 to 100 strike price range, while put warrants are clustered in the HKD 85 to 90 range. This distribution shows that although there are bullish positions being deployed in the short term, they are mainly concentrated in call warrant areas closer to the current price. Meanwhile, outstanding positions are concentrated in higher strike price zones, indicating that many previously bullish positions remain trapped at far-out-of-the-money levels. Overall, the market hasn’t formed a consensus on a bullish direction because put warrants also show noticeable concentration in trading, while call warrant outstanding positions have accumulated in distant strike prices. This suggests that while there is still hope for a rebound, confidence remains unstable, with more focus on bottom fishing rather than confirming a trend reversal.

To directly address investors’ questions, the first support level to watch is HKD 45.14, which is the most crucial short-term defense line at present. If it breaks below that, the next level to watch is HKD 44 to HKD 42.44. Regarding investors who flipped to buy the dip, purchasing call products with a strike price of HKD 48.93, this approach can be understood from the perspective of betting on a rebound from a deep fall, as the RSI is weak and the stock price is near recent lows, creating conditions for a technical rebound. However, with all moving averages sloping downward and the Bollinger Bands expanding, the trend remains firmly in a clear downtrend. Thus, such a strategy is a contrarian bet on a rebound rather than following the trend. If HKD 45.14 holds and the stock price can quickly rise above HKD 49.3, this bottom-fishing strategy would begin to make sense. But if HKD 45.14 is breached, short-term value would deteriorate rapidly, with risk outweighing reward. In other words, this kind of bottom fishing isn’t completely off-limits, but it’s suitable only for very short-term plays, contingent upon whether recent lows can hold as the core premise. $BIKUASO@EP2612A.P (17484.HK)$$UBKUASO@EP2612A.P (17479.HK)$$UB#KUASORP2812H.P (62026.HK)$

3. JD.com-SW (09618.HK): Investors mentioned that a double bottom has formed with gradually rising lows. After stabilizing above HKD 113, can it test HKD 120? Attention is on call warrants with a strike price of HKD 126.98.

JD.com's current price is 113.6 yuan, with short-term momentum showing clear improvement compared to the previous period. The stock price is currently within the recent trading range of 95.9 yuan to 116.3 yuan, with an overall fluctuation of about 21.3%. Based on the current position, the stock price has returned to the upper half of the range and is approaching the recent high, reflecting a significant inflow of funds. However, it also indicates that upward resistance is starting to build. On the support side, the immediate level to watch is near 113 yuan, which is the most crucial short-term support at present. Below that, the 110 yuan to 107 yuan region serves as the next support zone, close to where several medium- and short-term moving averages converge. A break below this would shift the short-term trend from bullish back to sideways. On the resistance side, the first level to watch is 116.3 yuan, the recent high. A breakout above this would pave the way for a move towards 120 yuan.

Technically, the moving averages are slightly improving after being entangled, indicating that the stock price, following a period of consolidation, is attempting to transition from sideways movement to a stronger trend, though it has not yet reached a fully one-sided uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a relatively strong state, suggesting that short-term buying power has increased, with market sentiment significantly improved compared to earlier. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing, with the stock price nearing the upper band, indicating volatility is starting to compress while prices are approaching the upper end of the range. The market is now at a point close to a potential breakout. If it can break out successfully, the uptrend may accelerate; otherwise, it could remain volatile at higher levels.

In terms of upside conditions, the most critical trigger is for the stock price to stabilize above 113 yuan and subsequently break through the recent high of 116.3 yuan. Only after holding above 113 yuan and effectively breaking through 116.3 yuan will the market have sufficient conditions to push the short-term target towards 120 yuan. If the stock merely stays above 113 yuan but fails to break through the 116 yuan area, the trend would still be consolidating within the range rather than initiating a new upward phase.

On the downside risk, the trigger condition is equally clear: if the stock falls below 113 yuan and fails to recover quickly, it would indicate that the recently established bullish rhythm is beginning to deteriorate. In this scenario, there could be a retest of the 110 yuan to 107 yuan support zone. If 107 yuan is also breached, it would suggest that the market’s view of gradually raising the lows is being questioned, reducing the likelihood of another attempt at 120 yuan.

Regarding warrant capital distribution, call warrant trading is concentrated in the strike price range of 135 yuan to 140 yuan, while put warrants focus on the 95 yuan to 100 yuan range. For street-level positions, call warrants are heavily concentrated around the 115 yuan to 120 yuan strike price, whereas put warrants center around the 105 yuan to 110 yuan range. This distribution shows that the market is not entirely aligned on future direction, but bullish capital deployment is closer to current price levels, especially with street-level concentration in the 115 yuan to 120 yuan area, reflecting that much of the capital is positioning around whether the stock price can test higher levels. Meanwhile, the concentration of put warrants in lower ranges suggests bearish views still exist, though they do not dominate at this stage. Overall, market sentiment leans cautiously bullish but is far from a unanimous one-sided bet.

To directly address investors' questions, the observation that a double bottom has formed with gradually rising lows holds some validity, as recent lows have indeed shown signs of lifting, and the price has returned above 113 yuan, improving the short-term structure. However, to determine whether the stock can test 120 yuan, the key isn’t just holding above 113 yuan but subsequently breaking through 116.3 yuan. In other words, staying above 113 yuan maintains the bullish rhythm, but surpassing 116.3 yuan is the true trigger for pushing towards 120 yuan. Regarding the 126.98 yuan call warrants, such products represent out-of-the-money bets, implying direct speculation on further stock price breakthroughs and extended gains. This idea isn't unreasonable, but the premise is that JD.com must quickly break through 116.3 yuan. Otherwise, if the price remains stuck between 113 yuan and 116 yuan, time decay on these out-of-the-money call warrants will be more pronounced, making their short-term value less attractive. In summary, the prospect of testing 120 yuan can be considered valid but only conditionally so—not yet confirmed. If 113 yuan is held and 116.3 yuan is broken, the betting odds improve; otherwise, caution is warranted against a pullback after consolidation at higher levels. $UB#JDCOMRC2805Q.C (69177.HK)$$CIJDCOM@EC2609A.C (26504.HK)$$SG#JDCOMRC2611B.C (54200.HK)$$BIJDCOM@EC2609B.C (26757.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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