China Mobile announces its results today: Stock price nears key support, what are the chances of a short-term rebound?

$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ China Mobile is set to release its full-year 2025 earnings today. The stock has shown a volatile and consolidating trend recently, with an intraday low touching CNY 77, nearing the stage low of CNY 75.85 set in February this year. Looking at the moving average system, the current stock price has broken below all key short- to medium-term moving averages. The 10-day moving average is at CNY 78.9, the 30-day moving average at CNY 78.76, and the 60-day moving average at CNY 79.56. The moving averages are arranged in a bearish pattern, confirming that the short-term trend remains weak, with technical indicators showing a clear downtrend.

In terms of key price levels, the primary support below is currently at CNY 75.5, with a stronger defensive level located at CNY 73.8. These two positions are the core observation points for determining whether the stock will enter a deeper correction phase. The first resistance above is at CNY 78.6, and if it can break through effectively, the next resistance will shift to CNY 80.3. Currently, the stock is oscillating in the lower-middle range between support and resistance, with strong market观望 sentiment, waiting for directional catalysts from the upcoming earnings announcement.

Technical indicators show noticeable structural divergence, implying potential for a short-term rebound. Oscillation-based indicators mostly send positive signals: both the Stochastic Oscillator and the CCI indicator suggest 'buy' opportunities, with the CCI forming a 'bottom divergence' pattern, indicating that downside momentum is gradually waning. The RSI index is currently at 39, entering the oversold zone, while the Williams %R indicator also confirms an oversold condition, providing a foundation for a technical rebound. On the other hand, trend-based indicators remain broadly bearish, with MACD, ADX, and Ichimoku Cloud all signaling 'sell,' indicating that the medium-term downward trend has not yet reversed significantly. Momentum oscillators and rate-of-change indicators are in a 'neutral' state, reflecting temporary balance between buyers and sellers at this level. This contradiction between oscillation and trend indicators precisely captures the current market characteristics: the medium-term downtrend remains intact, but the short-term situation is severely oversold, creating a technical basis for a potential short-term rebound.

Overall, China Mobile's technical indicators signal mixed but slightly positive short-term signs. Although the stock remains pressured below all major moving averages, showing overall weakness, multiple key oscillators have entered oversold territory and formed bottom divergence signals, significantly increasing the probability of the stock stabilizing above the CNY 75.5 support level and initiating a technical rebound. At the current price, it is not advisable to be overly bearish; instead, investors can moderately focus on short-term rebound opportunities. Operationally, consider building a light position in batches within the CNY 75.5 to CNY 77 range, targeting a rebound to the first resistance at CNY 78.6, with a strict stop-loss line set at CNY 73.8. The current technical indicator summary shows a 'buy' signal with a strength score of 9, primarily driven by the oversold conditions and multiple oscillator signals hinting at a bottom formation. Investors should clearly understand that this opportunity represents a countertrend rebound within a downtrend, rather than a trend reversal.

In terms of earnings expectations, based on forecasts from five brokerages, the market expects China Mobile’s full-year 2025 net profit to range between RMB 136.138 billion and RMB 145.3 billion, representing a change of -1.6% to +5% compared to RMB 138.373 billion in 2024. The forecast median is RMB 144.122 billion, indicating a 4.2% year-on-year increase. Revenue forecasts range from RMB 1.0416 trillion to RMB 1.0653 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.1% to 2.4% compared to RMB 1.04 trillion in 2024. The forecast median stands at RMB 1.0504 trillion, suggesting a 0.9% year-on-year increase.

In terms of derivatives, investors can choose corresponding products for short-term deployment based on their different views on China Mobile's future performance. If they are optimistic that China Mobile will successfully bottom out and rebound, they can consider call warrants and bull contracts. Among them,$CI-CMOB@EC2607A.C (24937.HK)$the exercise price is 88.88 yuan, with the lowest implied volatility and premium among similar products, effectively reducing holding costs and time decay. It is suitable for investors who believe the underlying stock has clear upward momentum. Regarding bull contracts,$UB#C MOBRC2709B.C (60834.HK)$ and $SG#C MOBRC2810F.C (60590.HK)$the stop-loss levels are set at 69 and 69.5 yuan respectively, maintaining a safety buffer of about 10% from the current price. Both have the characteristics of low premiums and relatively high actual leverage (approximately 13 to 14 times), making them highly efficient tools for betting on a rebound.

If you expect the stock price to encounter resistance at key levels and retreat again, you may consider put warrants or bear contracts.$CI-CMOB@EP2608A.P (25324.HK)$with an exercise price of 68.88 yuan, it similarly offers the advantage of the lowest premium and implied volatility, providing a relatively low-cost option for those bearish on the market outlook. As for bear contracts,$UB#C MOBRP2704B.P (57822.HK)$ and $HS#C MOBRP2712A.P (60561.HK)$the stop-loss level is set uniformly at 90 yuan, keeping sufficient distance from the current price. HSBC bear contract (60561) provides the highest actual leverage of around 4.4 times in its category, while UBS Group bear contract (57822) is known for having the lowest premium. Investors should select appropriate products based on their risk tolerance and expectations of the underlying stock's volatility, always being mindful of the stop-loss risks associated with bull/bear contracts and the time decay of warrants.

The current support level is 75.5 Hong Kong dollars, and the resistance level is 78.6 Hong Kong dollars. Do you think the stock price will first reach which level after this earnings announcement? As leading operators, why has China Mobile’s recent performance been weak? What are the core factors? Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' daily updates!$CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ 、 $CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Telecom Services (LIST1054.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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