Short-term strategy for Tencent: 500 HKD serves as the bullish-bearish dividing line; if it breaks down, targets are 490 HKD and 454 HKD.

According to the March 25 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast], Tencent is currently trading at HKD 505.5, near the lower end of its recent trading range, reflecting weak momentum. Immediate support lies at the psychological level of HKD 500, followed by the recent low of HKD 495.20. Resistance is seen between HKD 512 and HKD 513, and then in the region of HKD 524 to HKD 529. The podcast analysis suggests that if the stock falls below HKD 500, it would signal a breach of the psychological threshold; failing to hold above HKD 495.20 would exacerbate the short-term weakness. For a meaningful rebound to occur, the stock must first defend the support zone around HKD 500 and HKD 495.20, regain the HKD 512 to HKD 513 resistance, and eventually reclaim the moving average resistance between HKD 524 and HKD 529. Currently trading at HKD 505.5, the stock is testing key support levels at this critical moment.

In terms of warrant funds, there are a total of 348 related products in the market, including 283 call warrants and 65 put warrants, showing a clear bias towards call warrants in terms of product numbers. The most concentrated trading area for call warrants is in the exercise price range of $620 to $629.99, while for put warrants, it is concentrated between $480 and $489.99. In terms of street-level holdings distribution, the largest concentration for call warrants is also in the $620 to $629.99 range, while for put warrants, it remains in the $480 to $489.99 range, indicating an overall one-sided concentration. This reflects that the market structure still shows more capital positioning for a rebound, but put warrants in the $480 to $489.99 range have a clear focus, suggesting that short-term downside risks are not entirely ignored by the market. In other words, although the overall product structure leans toward a bullish outlook, short-term sentiment isn't completely unified because the underlying stock itself remains weak.

Regarding investor concerns about whether the current trend is strong or weak, this judgment is reasonable because the current price is near the lower boundary of the trading range, with declining moving averages and a weak RSI, showing no signs of strengthening. As for whether the HKD 500 bull contract will be called, the answer is that there is risk, and it is not insignificant. With the current price at HKD 505.5, it is very close to HKD 500. Any additional downward pressure could easily trigger a forced call for these near-strike bull contracts, so HKD 500 should not be considered a safe distance. On the other hand, some investors have reasonably deployed bull contracts with a call price of HKD 425, which offers a larger buffer from the current price and reduces the likelihood of being triggered by normal intraday volatility, making it suitable for betting on a short-term technical rebound. However, being reasonable does not equate to high reward potential, as the underlying stock has yet to show definitive signs of strengthening. Even when choosing bull contracts with farther call prices, the reward-to-risk ratio remains neutral to cautious, and is not particularly attractive.