Earnings reports from Chinese giants raise concerns! Is it a good time to buy on dips？
The rebound of the Hang Seng Index faces structural challenges, with the 26,104-point level being critical
On the previous day (March 25th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The full-day closing was at 25,335.95 points, with a slight increase of 1.09% in a single day and a trading volume of 350.933 billion yuan, continuing the rebound trend but with narrowing gains, as the overall market enters a phase of structural differentiation.
Based on the latest technical data, a detailed breakdown of the Hang Seng Index trend and key indicators follows:
1. Support and Resistance: Support 2 is at 24,071 points, Support 1 at 24,640 points, Resistance 1 at 26,104 points, Resistance 2 at 26,601 points. The short-term focus is on the strength of support at 24,640 points and the breakout at the resistance level of 26,104 points, which are critical for determining whether the short-term rebound will continue.
2. Core Technical Indicators: RSI is 43, in the neutral zone; multiple oscillation indicators show neutral signals. RSI and Williams indicators are neutral, stochastic oscillation indicator signals are neutral. The bull-bear power indicator suggests oversold conditions and possible bottoming out, issuing a buy signal. MACD indicates a buy signal, while Bollinger Bands suggest a sell. Overall, indicators present a mixed neutral trend.
3. Comprehensive Signals: The technical indicators' summary signal is 'Buy', with a signal strength of 8, and an upward probability of 46%, slightly below 50%. The 5-day volatility is 6.1%, indicating stabilized fluctuations, reflecting a market with both bullish and bearish forces in deadlock, with significant divergence.
![On the previous day (March 25th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,335.95 points for the day, up slightly by 1.09%, with a trading volume of 350.933 billion yuan. It continued its rebound trend but with narrowing gains, entering an overall phase of structural divergence. [Share Link: March 25th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Nongfu Spring,] $NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK)$ Based on the latest technical data, a detailed breakdown of the Hang Seng Index's performance and core indicators follows: 1. Support and Resistance: Support 2 is at 24,071 points, Support 1 is at 24,640 points, Resistance 1 is at 26,104 points, and Resistance 2 is at 26,601 points. The short-term focus is on the strength of support at 24,640 points and whether the resistance at 26,104 points can be broken. These two levels are key to determining if the short-term rebound can continue; 2. Core Technical Indicators: RSI is 43, in the neutral zone, with multiple oscillation indicators showing neutral signals. RSI, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator signals are all neutral. The Bull-Bear Power indicator suggests oversold conditions, possible bottom formation, and issues a buy signal. MACD indicates buy, while Bollinger Bands suggest sell. Overall, indicators show a neutral divergence; 3. Comprehensive Signal: The overall technical indicator summary shows a 'buy' signal, with a signal strength of 8 and a 46% probability of increase, slightly below 50%. The 5-day volatility is 6.1%, stabilizing, reflecting a market characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a clear divergence pattern. Key blue-chip performance on March 25th...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260326/web-1774487285812-6jpeE3jLGD.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
On March 25, blue-chip performances showed significant divergence, with Meituan and Alibaba showing notable increases, while Tencent and China Mobile experienced slight declines. Technical signals also indicated subtle changes, as detailed below:
1. Strong Buy Signal Stocks (1 stock):
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Closed at 128.9 yuan, surging 4.63%, with the closing price lower than MA10 (129.79 yuan) and MA30 (139.34 yuan), but higher than MA60 (148.74 yuan). RSI 37 is close to oversold levels, with strong buy signal intensity of 12, showing ample rebound momentum, making it a core leading stock from the previous day’s rebound.
2. Buy Signal Stocks (5 stocks):
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Closed at 505.5 yuan, down 1.65%, with the closing price below all major moving averages. RSI 38 is near oversold territory, with a buy signal strength of 9.
$HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at 398 yuan, up 1.63%, closing price below all moving averages, RSI 44 neutral, buy signal strength 9;
$PING AN (02318.HK)$ Closed at 60.45 yuan, up 1.60%, closing price below all moving averages, RSI 39 nearing oversold levels, buy signal strength 8;
$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ Closed at 77.5 yuan, down 0.64%, closing price below MA10 (79.1 yuan), above MA30 (78.81 yuan) and MA60 (79.65 yuan), RSI 42 neutral, buy signal strength 10;
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Closed at 32.52 yuan, down 0.49%, closing price below all moving averages, RSI 39 nearing oversold levels, buy signal strength 9.
3. Neutral signal stocks (3 stocks):
$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Closed at 90 yuan, surged 13.92%, closing price above MA10 (79.67 yuan) and MA30 (80.7 yuan), but below MA60 (90.15 yuan), RSI 46 neutral, neutral signal strength 8, indicates overbought conditions with profit-taking pressure emerging;
$AIA (01299.HK)$ Closed at 86.8 yuan, up 2.00%, closing price above all major moving averages, showing a bullish alignment, RSI 54 moderately strong, neutral signal strength 9, short-term caution advised for potential pullback;
$CCB (00939.HK)$ Closed at 8.08 yuan, up 1.38%, closing price above MA10 (8.01 yuan) and MA30 (8 yuan), but below MA60 (7.88 yuan), RSI 53 neutral, neutral signal strength 9, upward momentum may slow.
4. Sell signal stocks (1 stock):
$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Closed at 125 yuan, up 1.13%, closing price slightly above MA10 (124.44 yuan), but below MA30 (132.93 yuan) and MA60 (131.23 yuan), RSI 44 neutral, sell signal strength 8, forming a 'price rebound divergence,' rebound foundation remains weak.
Overall market sentiment: The optimistic sentiment brought by the earlier broad-based rally has cooled somewhat, with investors becoming more rational. Capital is concentrating in strong individual stocks like Alibaba and Meituan, while adopting a cautious stance towards stocks with weak rebounds. In this divergent market environment,观望情绪 (wait-and-see sentiment) has risen.
Review and Selection of Hang Seng Index (HSI) Warrants and Bull/Bear Products: Rational Deployment of Leverage Opportunities Amid Divergent Market Conditions
(1) Review of previous warrant and bull/bear products
Looking back at HSI-related warrant and bull/bear products recommended on March 19, their performance was impressive: $BI#HSI RP2804E.P (67581.HK)$ A 102% increase in two days, $BI#HSI RP28042.P (57310.HK)$ A 95% increase, $BI-HSI @EP2606B.P (24183.HK)$ A 76% increase, $UB-HSI @EP2606B.P (24041.HK)$ A 65% increase, all significantly outperforming the HSI's -4.38% return during the same period, capturing excellent leverage gains for investors focused on derivatives.
![On the previous day (March 25th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,335.95 points for the day, up slightly by 1.09%, with a trading volume of 350.933 billion yuan. It continued its rebound trend but with narrowing gains, entering an overall phase of structural divergence. [Share Link: March 25th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Nongfu Spring,] $NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK)$ Based on the latest technical data, a detailed breakdown of the Hang Seng Index's performance and core indicators follows: 1. Support and Resistance: Support 2 is at 24,071 points, Support 1 is at 24,640 points, Resistance 1 is at 26,104 points, and Resistance 2 is at 26,601 points. The short-term focus is on the strength of support at 24,640 points and whether the resistance at 26,104 points can be broken. These two levels are key to determining if the short-term rebound can continue; 2. Core Technical Indicators: RSI is 43, in the neutral zone, with multiple oscillation indicators showing neutral signals. RSI, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator signals are all neutral. The Bull-Bear Power indicator suggests oversold conditions, possible bottom formation, and issues a buy signal. MACD indicates buy, while Bollinger Bands suggest sell. Overall, indicators show a neutral divergence; 3. Comprehensive Signal: The overall technical indicator summary shows a 'buy' signal, with a signal strength of 8 and a 46% probability of increase, slightly below 50%. The 5-day volatility is 6.1%, stabilizing, reflecting a market characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a clear divergence pattern. Key blue-chip performance on March 25th...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260326/web-1774487486505-YDoUfhzKXm.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
(II) HSI Warrant Selection
Considering the neutral divergence in the HSI and the decline in buying signal strength, we have carefully selected two warrant products tailored to different trading expectations for investors' reference, aligning with the market rhythm of the day:
1. BNP Paribas Call Warrant (23939): Actual leverage of 17.1x, strike price at 26,600 points. Its core advantage lies in having the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about the HSI breaking through the resistance level of 26,104 points and extending its rebound.
2. JPMorgan Put Warrants (22976): Actual leverage of 13.1, exercise price at 23,400 points, offering the lowest premium and higher leverage, suitable for investors who believe that the Hang Seng Index will face short-term adjustments and focus on the support level at 24,640 points.
![On the previous day (March 25th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,335.95 points for the day, up slightly by 1.09%, with a trading volume of 350.933 billion yuan. It continued its rebound trend but with narrowing gains, entering an overall phase of structural divergence. [Share Link: March 25th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Nongfu Spring,] $NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK)$ Based on the latest technical data, a detailed breakdown of the Hang Seng Index's performance and core indicators follows: 1. Support and Resistance: Support 2 is at 24,071 points, Support 1 is at 24,640 points, Resistance 1 is at 26,104 points, and Resistance 2 is at 26,601 points. The short-term focus is on the strength of support at 24,640 points and whether the resistance at 26,104 points can be broken. These two levels are key to determining if the short-term rebound can continue; 2. Core Technical Indicators: RSI is 43, in the neutral zone, with multiple oscillation indicators showing neutral signals. RSI, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator signals are all neutral. The Bull-Bear Power indicator suggests oversold conditions, possible bottom formation, and issues a buy signal. MACD indicates buy, while Bollinger Bands suggest sell. Overall, indicators show a neutral divergence; 3. Comprehensive Signal: The overall technical indicator summary shows a 'buy' signal, with a signal strength of 8 and a 46% probability of increase, slightly below 50%. The 5-day volatility is 6.1%, stabilizing, reflecting a market characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a clear divergence pattern. Key blue-chip performance on March 25th...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260326/web-1774487469114-Mt3D0WTcEX.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![On the previous day (March 25th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,335.95 points for the day, up slightly by 1.09%, with a trading volume of 350.933 billion yuan. It continued its rebound trend but with narrowing gains, entering an overall phase of structural divergence. [Share Link: March 25th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Nongfu Spring,] $NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK)$ Based on the latest technical data, a detailed breakdown of the Hang Seng Index's performance and core indicators follows: 1. Support and Resistance: Support 2 is at 24,071 points, Support 1 is at 24,640 points, Resistance 1 is at 26,104 points, and Resistance 2 is at 26,601 points. The short-term focus is on the strength of support at 24,640 points and whether the resistance at 26,104 points can be broken. These two levels are key to determining if the short-term rebound can continue; 2. Core Technical Indicators: RSI is 43, in the neutral zone, with multiple oscillation indicators showing neutral signals. RSI, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator signals are all neutral. The Bull-Bear Power indicator suggests oversold conditions, possible bottom formation, and issues a buy signal. MACD indicates buy, while Bollinger Bands suggest sell. Overall, indicators show a neutral divergence; 3. Comprehensive Signal: The overall technical indicator summary shows a 'buy' signal, with a signal strength of 8 and a 46% probability of increase, slightly below 50%. The 5-day volatility is 6.1%, stabilizing, reflecting a market characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a clear divergence pattern. Key blue-chip performance on March 25th...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260326/web-1774487469009-mWtvtkVRRM.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Risk Warning: The divergence among blue chips intensified yesterday, with some strong stocks showing overbought warnings; the rebound momentum of the Hang Seng Index has weakened. Investors participating in CBBCs and bull/bear contracts should consider their own risk tolerance, rationally control positions, and closely monitor the performance of key support and resistance levels of the Hang Seng Index.
In which range will the Hang Seng Index close this week? A. Above 25,500 (successful rebound) B. Between 24,640 and 25,300 (continued consolidation) C. Below 24,640 (start of a new downturn).
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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