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Xiaomi announces a new HK$20 billion share buyback program—will the stock price get a boost?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion ·

Major banks collectively lowered their target prices, Xiaomi's stock enters a critical trading zone

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$
After the earnings release, the stock price fluctuated. Today (the 25th), it opened 1.96% lower at HKD 32.04. During trading, it dropped to HKD 31.62 but rebounded afterward and is now trading at HKD 32.8. Following Xiaomi's earnings, several major investment banks successively lowered their target prices. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank maintained a "Buy" rating while reducing its target price from HKD 68.50 to HKD 67.00, representing the most optimistic outlook among all institutions. Daiwa also maintained a "Buy" rating, lowering its target price from HKD 45.00 to HKD 42.00. Citi kept its "Buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HKD 42.00 to HKD 40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group cut its target price from HKD 38.00 to HKD 36.00 while maintaining a "Neutral" investment rating, and J.P. Morgan retained its target price at HKD 35.00 with a "Neutral" rating as well.
Xiaomi's current share price remains below key moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day lines, forming a typical bearish pattern in the moving averages, indicating that the medium- to short-term downward trend has not yet reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock price fluctuated by up to 17%, showing intense trading around the current price level with significant market expectation divergence. Trend indicators like MACD, ADX, and Ichimoku Cloud are signaling sell signals, suggesting that the downward momentum still dominates, and any rebound will face notable suppression.
From the oscillation indicators, signs of short-term oversold repair have emerged: both the Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) and CCI are issuing buy signals, indicating that the downward momentum of this round is gradually weakening, creating a need for technical rebound in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 41, which, although not entering the extremely oversold zone below 20, has already departed from the strong region, leaving ample room for subsequent rebounds.
This divergence between oscillation and trend indicators is the core contradiction in the current technical picture: expectations of short-term rebounds coexist with medium-term trend pressure, and the market trend has yet to form a consensus.
The key support and resistance levels are as follows: the primary support is at HKD 31.3; if this level is effectively broken, the stock price may further drop to the second support level at HKD 29.2. On the upside, HKD 34.6 forms the first important barrier, close to the convergence area of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, making it difficult to break through; stronger resistance is near HKD 36.1, overlapping with the 60-day moving average and the previous dense trading zone. The stock price needs to successfully rise above HKD 34.6 to be preliminarily regarded as a sign of short-term trend strengthening.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of fundamental and technical factors, Xiaomi's current trend is sending out mixed signals of 'short-term bullishness with medium-term bearishness': multiple oscillation indicators are issuing buy signals in the oversold region, supporting the view that there will be a short-term technical rebound, with a probability of about 46%. However, the stock price remains below all key moving averages, and several trend indicators remain bearish, meaning any rebound will face heavy resistance from moving averages early on. Therefore, professional investors should not regard this as an aggressive buying point signaling a trend reversal at this stage.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ After the earnings release, the stock price fluctuated. Today (the 25th), it opened 1.96% lower at HKD 32.04. During trading, it dropped to HKD 31.62 but rebounded afterward and is now trading at HKD 32.8. Following Xiaomi's earnings, several major investment banks successively lowered their target prices. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank maintained a "Buy" rating while reducing its target price from HKD 68.50 to HKD 67.00, representing the most optimistic outlook among all institutions. Daiwa also maintained a "Buy" rating, lowering its target price from HKD 45.00 to HKD 42.00. Citi kept its "Buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HKD 42.00 to HKD 40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group cut its target price from HKD 38.00 to HKD 36.00 while maintaining a "Neutral" investment rating, and J.P. Morgan retained its target price at HKD 35.00 with a "Neutral" rating as well. Xiaomi's current share price remains below key moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day lines, forming a typical bearish pattern in the moving averages, indicating that the medium- to short-term downward trend has not yet reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock price fluctuated by up to 17%, showing intense trading around the current price level with significant market expectation divergence. Trend indicators like MACD, ADX, and Ichimoku Cloud are signaling sell signals, suggesting that the downward momentum still dominates, and any rebound will face notable suppression. From the perspective of oscillation indicators, signals for short-term oversold recovery have emerged in the market: Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) and CC...
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ After the earnings release, the stock price fluctuated. Today (the 25th), it opened 1.96% lower at HKD 32.04. During trading, it dropped to HKD 31.62 but rebounded afterward and is now trading at HKD 32.8. Following Xiaomi's earnings, several major investment banks successively lowered their target prices. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank maintained a "Buy" rating while reducing its target price from HKD 68.50 to HKD 67.00, representing the most optimistic outlook among all institutions. Daiwa also maintained a "Buy" rating, lowering its target price from HKD 45.00 to HKD 42.00. Citi kept its "Buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HKD 42.00 to HKD 40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group cut its target price from HKD 38.00 to HKD 36.00 while maintaining a "Neutral" investment rating, and J.P. Morgan retained its target price at HKD 35.00 with a "Neutral" rating as well. Xiaomi's current share price remains below key moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day lines, forming a typical bearish pattern in the moving averages, indicating that the medium- to short-term downward trend has not yet reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock price fluctuated by up to 17%, showing intense trading around the current price level with significant market expectation divergence. Trend indicators like MACD, ADX, and Ichimoku Cloud are signaling sell signals, suggesting that the downward momentum still dominates, and any rebound will face notable suppression. From the perspective of oscillation indicators, signals for short-term oversold recovery have emerged in the market: Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) and CC...
Reviewing March 18, 2026, Xiaomi’s share price cumulatively dropped by 5.52% over the following two days. $HSXIAMI@EP2607A.P (23111.HK)$ 、 $JP#XIAMIRP2810G.P (60434.HK)$ 、 $UB#XIAMIRP2810E.P (59592.HK)$ 、 $BIXIAMI@EP2607B.P (23123.HK)$ Four products averaged a gain of 40.75% over the two trading days after the reference date; related bearish derivatives performed consistently with the underlying stock's movement, reflecting their hedging characteristics against downside risks.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ After the earnings release, the stock price fluctuated. Today (the 25th), it opened 1.96% lower at HKD 32.04. During trading, it dropped to HKD 31.62 but rebounded afterward and is now trading at HKD 32.8. Following Xiaomi's earnings, several major investment banks successively lowered their target prices. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank maintained a "Buy" rating while reducing its target price from HKD 68.50 to HKD 67.00, representing the most optimistic outlook among all institutions. Daiwa also maintained a "Buy" rating, lowering its target price from HKD 45.00 to HKD 42.00. Citi kept its "Buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HKD 42.00 to HKD 40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group cut its target price from HKD 38.00 to HKD 36.00 while maintaining a "Neutral" investment rating, and J.P. Morgan retained its target price at HKD 35.00 with a "Neutral" rating as well. Xiaomi's current share price remains below key moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day lines, forming a typical bearish pattern in the moving averages, indicating that the medium- to short-term downward trend has not yet reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock price fluctuated by up to 17%, showing intense trading around the current price level with significant market expectation divergence. Trend indicators like MACD, ADX, and Ichimoku Cloud are signaling sell signals, suggesting that the downward momentum still dominates, and any rebound will face notable suppression. From the perspective of oscillation indicators, signals for short-term oversold recovery have emerged in the market: Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) and CC...
For Xiaomi (01810) warrant products, here are selected recommendations covering call warrants, put warrants, bull contracts, and bear contracts.
For call warrants, $HSXIAMI@EC2612C.C (22791.HK)$ The exercise price is 37.12 yuan, with leverage of approximately 4.5 times, and its premium is relatively low, making it suitable for investors optimistic about future trends. $BIXIAMI@EC2612A.C (13186.HK)$ The exercise price is 37.15 yuan, with leverage of around 4.6 times, and both its premium and implied volatility are the lowest among similar products, offering a lower-cost way to participate in upward movements.
For put warrants, $BIXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26045.HK)$ The exercise price is 28.16 yuan, with leverage of about 5.4 times, and both the premium and implied volatility are also the lowest, making it appropriate for those who are cautious about the stock price. $UBXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26121.HK)$ The exercise price is 28.16 yuan, with leverage of roughly 5 times, and its relatively low premium makes it a choice for risk hedging.
For bull certificates, $UB#XIAMIRC2609A.C (67825.HK)$ The recovery price is 30 yuan, with actual leverage reaching up to 9.6 times, and its relatively low premium suits aggressive strategies favoring growth. $SG#XIAMIRC2609I.C (59415.HK)$ The recovery price is also 30 yuan, with relatively high actual leverage of about 10.2 times, and the premium is the lowest among similar products, providing a high leverage effect. For bear contracts, $SG#XIAMIRP28121.P (59190.HK)$The recovery price is 38 yuan, with relatively high actual leverage of approximately 6.8 times and the lowest premium, making it suitable for those bearish on the market outlook.$MS#XIAMIRP2812C.P (59757.HK)$The recovery price is 38.5 yuan, with the highest actual leverage reaching up to 6.1 times and a lower premium, serving as a flexible tool for bearish operations.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ After the earnings release, the stock price fluctuated. Today (the 25th), it opened 1.96% lower at HKD 32.04. During trading, it dropped to HKD 31.62 but rebounded afterward and is now trading at HKD 32.8. Following Xiaomi's earnings, several major investment banks successively lowered their target prices. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank maintained a "Buy" rating while reducing its target price from HKD 68.50 to HKD 67.00, representing the most optimistic outlook among all institutions. Daiwa also maintained a "Buy" rating, lowering its target price from HKD 45.00 to HKD 42.00. Citi kept its "Buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HKD 42.00 to HKD 40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group cut its target price from HKD 38.00 to HKD 36.00 while maintaining a "Neutral" investment rating, and J.P. Morgan retained its target price at HKD 35.00 with a "Neutral" rating as well. Xiaomi's current share price remains below key moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day lines, forming a typical bearish pattern in the moving averages, indicating that the medium- to short-term downward trend has not yet reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock price fluctuated by up to 17%, showing intense trading around the current price level with significant market expectation divergence. Trend indicators like MACD, ADX, and Ichimoku Cloud are signaling sell signals, suggesting that the downward momentum still dominates, and any rebound will face notable suppression. From the perspective of oscillation indicators, signals for short-term oversold recovery have emerged in the market: Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) and CC...
Given the current 'short-term bullish, medium-term bearish' technical trend, would you choose to participate lightly in the rebound or wait for the trend to become clearer before positioning? Do you think Xiaomi's current price around 32 yuan already has value for medium-to-long-term allocation?
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates! $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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