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Xiaomi announces a new HK$20 billion share buyback program—will the stock price get a boost?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion ·

Major firms collectively cut their price targets, pushing Xiaomi's stock into a critical trading range.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$
Following the earnings release, the stock price has been volatile, opening lower today (the 25th) by 1.96% at HK$32.04; it dipped as low as HK$31.62 during the session before rebounding to trade at HK$32.80 now. After Xiaomi's earnings report, several major banks have successively lowered their target prices for the stock. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank has maintained a "buy" rating but lowered its target price from HK$68.50 to HK$67.00, making it the most optimistic among all firms; Daiwa also keeps its "buy" rating while reducing the target price from HK$45.00 to HK$42.00; Citi likewise maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HK$42.00 to HK$40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group has cut its target price from HK$38.00 to HK$36.00 while keeping the investment rating at "neutral"; JPMorgan, meanwhile, has kept its target price unchanged at HK$35.00 and also maintains a "neutral" rating.
Xiaomi's current share price remains below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages, with the moving averages exhibiting a classic bearish arrangement, indicating that the medium- to short-term downtrend has yet to be reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock's price range has widened to as much as 17%, reflecting intense bargaining between bulls and bears around the current level and highlighting a significant divergence in market expectations. Trend indicators such as MACD, ADX, and the Ichimoku Cloud all point to sell signals, suggesting that the mid-term downward momentum continues to dominate and that any rebound will face substantial resistance.
From the perspective of oscillator indicators, the market has begun to show signs of a short-term oversold correction: both the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and the CCI have issued buy signals, suggesting that the downward momentum in this round is gradually weakening and creating a technical need for a short-term rebound. The relative strength index (RSI) currently stands at 41; although it has not yet entered the extreme oversold zone below 20, it has already moved out of the overbought territory, leaving ample room for a subsequent rally.
This divergence between oscillators and trend indicators represents the core contradiction in the current technical picture: expectations for a short-term rebound coexist with downward pressure from the medium-term trend, leaving the market without a clear consensus on the direction of price action.
The key current support and resistance levels are as follows: The primary support lies at RMB 31.30; if this level is decisively breached, the stock price could fall further to the second support at RMB 29.20. On the upside, RMB 34.60 represents the first major hurdle, as it coincides with the confluence of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, making a breakout relatively challenging. A stronger resistance level is near RMB 36.10, which overlaps with the 60-day moving average and a previously densely traded price range. Only by successfully sustaining a close above RMB 34.60 can the stock be tentatively regarded as signaling a short-term trend reversal to the upside.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of both fundamental and technical factors, Xiaomi's current price action is sending a mixed 'short-term bullish, medium-term bearish' signal: several oscillators in oversold territory are generating buy signals, supporting the view that a short-term technical rebound may occur, with a probability of around 46%. However, the stock is trading below all key moving averages, and multiple trend indicators remain tilted to the downside, suggesting that any rebound will initially face strong downward pressure from these averages. Therefore, for professional investors, it is not advisable at this stage to overly aggressively interpret this as a trend-reversal buying opportunity.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Following the earnings release, the stock price has been volatile, opening lower today (the 25th) by 1.96% at HK$32.04; it dipped as low as HK$31.62 during the session before rebounding to trade at HK$32.80 now. After Xiaomi's earnings report, several major banks have successively lowered their target prices for the stock. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank has maintained a "buy" rating but lowered its target price from HK$68.50 to HK$67.00, making it the most optimistic among all firms; Daiwa also keeps its "buy" rating while reducing the target price from HK$45.00 to HK$42.00; Citi likewise maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HK$42.00 to HK$40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group has cut its target price from HK$38.00 to HK$36.00 while keeping the investment rating at "neutral"; JPMorgan, meanwhile, has kept its target price unchanged at HK$35.00 and also maintains a "neutral" rating. Xiaomi's current share price remains below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages, with the moving averages exhibiting a classic bearish arrangement, indicating that the medium- to short-term downtrend has yet to be reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock's price range has widened to as much as 17%, reflecting intense bargaining between bulls and bears around the current level and highlighting a significant divergence in market expectations. Trend indicators such as MACD, ADX, and the Ichimoku Cloud all point to sell signals, suggesting that the mid-term downward momentum continues to dominate and that any rebound will face substantial resistance. Based on oscillator indicators, the market has already shown signs of a short-term oversold correction: the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and CCI...
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Following the earnings release, the stock price has been volatile, opening lower today (the 25th) by 1.96% at HK$32.04; it dipped as low as HK$31.62 during the session before rebounding to trade at HK$32.80 now. After Xiaomi's earnings report, several major banks have successively lowered their target prices for the stock. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank has maintained a "buy" rating but lowered its target price from HK$68.50 to HK$67.00, making it the most optimistic among all firms; Daiwa also keeps its "buy" rating while reducing the target price from HK$45.00 to HK$42.00; Citi likewise maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HK$42.00 to HK$40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group has cut its target price from HK$38.00 to HK$36.00 while keeping the investment rating at "neutral"; JPMorgan, meanwhile, has kept its target price unchanged at HK$35.00 and also maintains a "neutral" rating. Xiaomi's current share price remains below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages, with the moving averages exhibiting a classic bearish arrangement, indicating that the medium- to short-term downtrend has yet to be reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock's price range has widened to as much as 17%, reflecting intense bargaining between bulls and bears around the current level and highlighting a significant divergence in market expectations. Trend indicators such as MACD, ADX, and the Ichimoku Cloud all point to sell signals, suggesting that the mid-term downward momentum continues to dominate and that any rebound will face substantial resistance. Based on oscillator indicators, the market has already shown signs of a short-term oversold correction: the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and CCI...
Looking back at March 18, 2026, it was noted that Xiaomi's stock had cumulatively fallen by 5.52% over the preceding two days.$HSXIAMI@EP2607A.P (23111.HK)$ 、 $JP#XIAMIRP2810G.P (60434.HK)$ 、 $UB#XIAMIRP2810E.P (59592.HK)$ 、 $BIXIAMI@EP2607B.P (23123.HK)$Four products saw average gains of 40.75% over the subsequent two trading days; the performance of the corresponding short-position derivatives was perfectly aligned with the direction of the underlying stocks' price movements, demonstrating the hedging function of derivatives in response to declines in the underlying shares.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Following the earnings release, the stock price has been volatile, opening lower today (the 25th) by 1.96% at HK$32.04; it dipped as low as HK$31.62 during the session before rebounding to trade at HK$32.80 now. After Xiaomi's earnings report, several major banks have successively lowered their target prices for the stock. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank has maintained a "buy" rating but lowered its target price from HK$68.50 to HK$67.00, making it the most optimistic among all firms; Daiwa also keeps its "buy" rating while reducing the target price from HK$45.00 to HK$42.00; Citi likewise maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HK$42.00 to HK$40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group has cut its target price from HK$38.00 to HK$36.00 while keeping the investment rating at "neutral"; JPMorgan, meanwhile, has kept its target price unchanged at HK$35.00 and also maintains a "neutral" rating. Xiaomi's current share price remains below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages, with the moving averages exhibiting a classic bearish arrangement, indicating that the medium- to short-term downtrend has yet to be reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock's price range has widened to as much as 17%, reflecting intense bargaining between bulls and bears around the current level and highlighting a significant divergence in market expectations. Trend indicators such as MACD, ADX, and the Ichimoku Cloud all point to sell signals, suggesting that the mid-term downward momentum continues to dominate and that any rebound will face substantial resistance. Based on oscillator indicators, the market has already shown signs of a short-term oversold correction: the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and CCI...
The following are our curated recommendations for warrant products on Xiaomi (01810), covering call warrants, put warrants, bull certificates, and bear certificates.
In terms of subscription warrants,$HSXIAMI@EC2612C.C (22791.HK)$The strike price is RMB 37.12, with a leverage of approximately 4.5x; its premium is relatively low, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about the future market outlook.$BIXIAMI@EC2612A.C (13186.HK)$The strike price is RMB 37.15, with a leverage of approximately 4.6x; both its premium and implied volatility are the lowest among comparable products, offering a lower-cost way to participate in an upward move.
Put warrant section,$BIXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26045.HK)$The strike price is RMB 28.16, with leverage of approximately 5.4x; both the premium and implied volatility are at their lowest, making it suitable for investors who remain cautious about the stock price.$UBXIAMI@EP2608A.P (26121.HK)$The strike price is RMB 28.16, with leverage of approximately 5x and a relatively low premium, making it a suitable option for hedging risk.
Regarding bull certificates,$UB#XIAMIRC2609A.C (67825.HK)$The buyback price is RMB 30, with effective leverage as high as 9.6x and a relatively low premium, making it suitable for aggressive, bullish strategies.$SG#XIAMIRC2609I.C (59415.HK)$The redemption price is also RMB 30, resulting in an effective leverage of approximately 10.2 times and the lowest premium among comparable products, thereby delivering a high-leverage effect. As for the bear warrants,$SG#XIAMIRP28121.P (59190.HK)$The buyback price is RMB 38, resulting in an effective leverage of approximately 6.8 times and the lowest premium, making it suitable for investors who are bearish on the future market.$MS#XIAMIRP2812C.P (59757.HK)$The buyback price is RMB 38.5, with effective leverage as high as 6.1x and a relatively low premium, making it a flexible tool for bearish strategies.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Following the earnings release, the stock price has been volatile, opening lower today (the 25th) by 1.96% at HK$32.04; it dipped as low as HK$31.62 during the session before rebounding to trade at HK$32.80 now. After Xiaomi's earnings report, several major banks have successively lowered their target prices for the stock. Among the institutions, Deutsche Bank has maintained a "buy" rating but lowered its target price from HK$68.50 to HK$67.00, making it the most optimistic among all firms; Daiwa also keeps its "buy" rating while reducing the target price from HK$45.00 to HK$42.00; Citi likewise maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting the target price from HK$42.00 to HK$40.00. On the other hand, UBS Group has cut its target price from HK$38.00 to HK$36.00 while keeping the investment rating at "neutral"; JPMorgan, meanwhile, has kept its target price unchanged at HK$35.00 and also maintains a "neutral" rating. Xiaomi's current share price remains below its 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages, with the moving averages exhibiting a classic bearish arrangement, indicating that the medium- to short-term downtrend has yet to be reversed. Over the past five trading days, the stock's price range has widened to as much as 17%, reflecting intense bargaining between bulls and bears around the current level and highlighting a significant divergence in market expectations. Trend indicators such as MACD, ADX, and the Ichimoku Cloud all point to sell signals, suggesting that the mid-term downward momentum continues to dominate and that any rebound will face substantial resistance. Based on oscillator indicators, the market has already shown signs of a short-term oversold correction: the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) and CCI...
Given the current technical setup of "short-term bullish, medium-term bearish," would you choose to enter the rebound with a light position, or wait until the trend becomes clearer before positioning? In your view, at Xiaomi's current price around RMB 32, does it already offer medium- to long-term allocation value?
Feel free to share your insights in the comments. For more market analysis, stay tuned for daily updates from "HK Stock Warrants Jenny"!$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein are subject to change at any time without notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met and should be used in conjunction with other information to conduct a comprehensive assessment of asset performance; trading decisions should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HKStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantPick #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #Xiaomi #01810 #TechStocks #TechnicalAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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