Pop Mart (09992) Short-Term Analysis: Oversold Rebound, Testing Key Resistance

As of March 24, 2026, Pop Mart (09992) closed at HKD 218.00, up 7.81%, with a trading volume of HKD 3.157 billion, indicating active market participation. From a technical perspective, after retreating from recent highs, the stock found support near the HKD 190 level and began a technical rebound. The short-term moving average MA10 is at HKD 209.48, nearly flat with the current price, suggesting a critical juncture for directional movement in the short term. Meanwhile, MA30 and MA60 are situated at HKD 225.19 and HKD 215.40 respectively, forming overhead resistance, which reflects that the medium-term trend has not yet fully strengthened.

Based on multiple technical indicators, the system issued a 'Strong Buy' signal with a strength score of 12. Various oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator are showing 'Buy Signals,' while the CCI indicator and Rate of Change indicator both suggest 'Severe Oversold Conditions, Potential Bottom Formation, Buy,' indicating strong rebound potential following a sharp short-term decline. However, MACD signals and Bollinger Bands indicate 'Sell,' showing that the overall structure is still in the process of recovery. According to technical analysis data, short-term support levels are at HKD 198 and HKD 191, with resistance levels located at HKD 223 and HKD 240. The probability of an upward move is 45%, with a 5-day volatility of 12.7%, indicating high stock price fluctuations.

On the market news front, Pop Mart has been actively pushing forward in IP operations and overseas expansion. According to mainland media reports, new product launches from several core IP series under the group have received enthusiastic market responses, with robust sales performance across both online and offline channels. However, the overall consumer sector in Hong Kong stocks has shown divergent performance recently, and investors remain cautious about the earnings realization ability of highly valued consumer stocks.

Reviewing the warrant market performance, based on the March 20 product review, all three products mentioned recorded gains over the following two days (up to March 22), successfully capturing the derivative effects during the narrow range fluctuation of the underlying stock. Among them, UBS Put Warrant (24958) surged by 12%, performing the most prominently; Bank of China Put Warrant (15457) and UBS Bear Certificate (54833) gained 7% and 6% respectively. During the same period, the underlying stock slightly declined by 0.10%, and the corresponding put warrants and bear certificates effectively played their roles in hedging and capturing minor declines.

In summary of technical analysis and market environment, Pop Mart is currently in an oversold rebound phase, testing support at HKD 198 and resistance at HKD 223. If investors believe the stock can stabilize at this level and launch further rebounds, they may consider deploying call warrants or bull certificates. If anticipating a weak rebound and another test of support, attention can be paid to put warrants or bear certificates. Below is an analysis of selected warrant and bull/bear certificate products with clearer terms, whose strike prices and stop-loss levels are closely related to technical supports and resistances:

For bullish deployment, consider UBS call warrants (23647) $UBPOMRT@EC2606B.C (23647.HK)$ and Societe Generale call warrants (23859). $SGPOMRT@EC2606A.C (23859.HK)$ Both have an exercise price of 250.19 yuan, higher than the second resistance level at 240 yuan, making them out-of-the-money structures. The advantage of UBS call warrants (23647) is their relatively low implied volatility with a leverage of 6.5 times; Societe Generale call warrants (23859) $SGPOMRT@EC2606A.C (23859.HK)$ stand out for having the lowest premium and relatively ideal implied volatility and leverage, with a leverage of 6.8 times. Both are suitable for investors expecting the share price to break through the 240-yuan resistance level and move higher. For positions closer to the support level, consider bull warrants with a recovery price around 180 yuan, such as UBS bull warrant (57407) and HSBC bull warrant (57271). The advantage of UBS bull warrant (57407) lies in its highest actual leverage (5.8 times) and lowest premium, while HSBC bull warrant (57271) offers a lower premium option (6 times). Both have recovery prices below the first support level of 198 yuan, offering greater buffer space.

For bearish deployment, consider HSBC put warrants (21787) $HSPOMRT@EP2606A.P (21787.HK)$ and J.P. Morgan put warrants (23040). $JPPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23040.HK)$ Their exercise prices are 189.92 yuan and 188.78 yuan respectively, both below the first support level at 198 yuan, making them slightly out-of-the-money structures. The advantage of HSBC put warrants (21787) lies in their relatively low implied volatility, with a leverage of 4.2 times; J.P. Morgan put warrants (23040) offer a choice of relatively low implied volatility with higher leverage (5.7 times), suitable for investors expecting the stock price to test the second support level at 191 yuan. For bear certificates, consider UBS bear certificate (67830) and HSBC bear certificate (68843), both with a recovery price of 240 yuan, corresponding to the second resistance level. The advantage of UBS bear certificate (67830) is its lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage (5.9 times); HSBC bear certificate (68843) stands out for its high actual leverage (6 times) and low premium, suitable for bearish deployments.

Overall, Pop Mart is at a critical moment of short-term oversold rebound. Investors should use 198 yuan as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. If it breaks down, look towards 191 yuan; if it holds firm and breaks through the 223-yuan resistance, it could challenge 240 yuan further. When choosing derivative products, balance leverage with the distance to recovery/exercise prices based on your judgment of market direction and strength.

Interactive Questions

Do you think Pop Mart (09992) can break through the 223-yuan resistance in the short term?

A. Yes, the oversold rebound is expected to continue.

B. No, limited rebound space due to moving average suppression.

#PopMart #09992 #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportLevel #ResistanceLevel #Warrants #BullBearCertificates #CallWarrants #PutWarrants #HKStocks Warrants Jenny

Warm Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be made using other data, and trading decisions should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow HK Stocks Warrants Jenny for more professional insights.

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