[HK Stocks Podcast] Viewpoint Confirmation: Leapmotor Technology Nearing Resistance, Breakthrough Pending with Directional Choice Ahead

As of March 24, 2026, Leapmotor Technology (09863) traded at HKD 45, down slightly by 0.04%, with a turnover of HKD 224 million, maintaining active market trading. From a technical perspective, the stock price rebounded from a low of HKD 37.64 and is currently in a consolidation phase.

The short-term moving averages MA10, MA30, and MA60 are positioned at HKD 44.23, HKD 43.06, and HKD 42.72 respectively, showing flat short-term moving averages while medium- to long-term averages remain downward-sloping. This reflects that the overall trend has not completely reversed, though there are signs of short-term capital inflows. Based on multiple technical indicators, the system signal is 'Sell' with an intensity of 11. Several oscillation indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI are in a 'Neutral' state, with Williams %R and RSI (60) also showing 'Neutral,' indicating the market is in a compression phase before directional choice. However, the ADX indicator signals 'Buy,' the Bollinger Bands show 'Buy,' but combined analysis suggests considering 'Sell,' indicating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. According to technical analysis data, short-term support levels are at HKD 42.5 and HKD 39.3, while resistance levels are at HKD 47.6 and HKD 51.4. The probability of an upward move is 51%, with a 5-day volatility of 9%, showing relatively moderate stock price fluctuations.

March 23rd [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, CGN Power, Leapmotor,

Integrating the March 23 [HK Stocks Podcast] viewpoint, the program clearly noted that Leapmotor Technology is in a consolidation phase following a short-term rebound, primarily fluctuating within a range of HKD 42 to HKD 46. The HKD 42 level forms initial support, while the area above HKD 46 to HKD 47 represents significant resistance; until this is broken, it remains in a consolidation pattern. The program's analysis highlighted that the Bollinger Bands have visibly narrowed, with the share price gradually approaching the upper band, suggesting the stock is in a compression phase ahead of directional choice. Once a breakout occurs, volatility may increase. On the upside, close attention must be paid to whether the resistance zone around HKD 46 to HKD 47 can be decisively broken, ideally accompanied by sustained high volumes and stability above HKD 47, which would confirm the breakout and potentially push prices towards the HKD 48 to HKD 50 region. Currently, the stock is trading at HKD 45.36, near the lower end of the mentioned resistance zone, placing it at a critical juncture of 'approaching resistance without confirmed breakthrough.'

In market news today (March 24), the new energy vehicle sector showed mixed performance, with Leapmotor Technology benefiting from recent expectations of new model deliveries and overseas market expansion, keeping its share price relatively resilient. Additionally, industry data indicates positive expectations for March retail sales of new energy vehicles, providing fundamental support for the sector.

Based on technical analysis, market conditions, and insights from [HK Stocks Podcast], Leapmotor Technology is at a crucial moment of consolidation within a range in the short term. Investors should consider HKD 42.5 as a short-term defensive level and closely monitor any breakout above the HKD 47.6 resistance. If the stock price can stabilize above HKD 47 with increased volume, it may initiate a new upward trend and challenge the HKD 51.4 resistance. Below is an analysis of several warrant products with clear terms, whose exercise prices are closely linked to technical resistance levels:

In terms of bullish deployment, there are four call warrants with similar strike prices available in the market, all within the range of HK$58.83 to HK$58.93, far above the second resistance level at HK$51.40. This represents a clearly out-of-the-money structure, reflecting investors' expectations for a continued medium-term rebound. Citi Call Warrant (25260) $CT-LEAP@EC2608A.C (25260.HK)$ Strike price HK$58.83, effective leverage 3.43x, premium 43.02%, street leverage ratio 5.42%, with the last trading day on August 18, 2026. Its advantage lies in its relatively lower premium and moderate street leverage, ensuring relatively stable liquidity.

J.P. Morgan Call Warrant (25202) $JP-LEAP@EC2608A.C (25202.HK)$ Strike price HK$58.93, effective leverage 3.35x, premium 43.69%, street leverage ratio only 0.14%, implied volatility 83.4557%. Its advantage is its extremely low street leverage ratio, indicating highly concentrated positions, making price movements more reflective of underlying stock changes, suitable for investors confident in a rebound.

Bank of China Call Warrant (25231) $BI-LEAP@EC2608A.C (25231.HK)$ Strike price HK$58.93, effective leverage 3.41x, premium 43.35%, street leverage ratio 0.16%, implied volatility 83.3231%. Its advantage also lies in its extremely low street leverage ratio, with slightly higher effective leverage compared to J.P. Morgan’s product, offering better leverage efficiency.

HSBC Call Warrant (26176) $HS-LEAP@EC2608A.C (26176.HK)$ Strike price HK$58.93, effective leverage 3.44x, premium 43.13%, street leverage ratio 0.74%, implied volatility 83.2347%. Its advantage is that it offers the highest effective leverage among the four, with a relatively lower premium, making it suitable for investors with strong confidence in a rebound.

The strike prices of these four products are all significantly higher than the current share price, representing a typical mid-term out-of-the-money deployment. According to Podcast insights, the risk of such 'out-of-the-money chasing' patterns lies in the potential for time decay to gradually erode returns if the stock price fails to quickly break through the HK$47.60 resistance and sustain an upward trend. Investors should carefully evaluate the probability of a breakout and strictly control position risks.

Overall, Zero Run Automotive is currently in a compressed phase before directional selection. Investors should use HK$42.50 as the short-term bullish/bearish dividing line; if it holds, there is potential to challenge the HK$47.60 resistance again. If it breaks down, attention should be paid to support at HK$39.30. When selecting CBBC products, given the current share price is close to the resistance zone, the reward-risk ratio for chasing entry is relatively limited. It is advisable to wait for breakout confirmation before deployment or choose products with extremely low street leverage to mitigate potential selling pressure.

Do you think LEAP Motor (09863) can break through the resistance level at 47.6 yuan in the short term?

A. Yes, with good trading volume support, a new upward trend may begin.

B. No, the range-bound fluctuation will continue.

Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any form of investment recommendation. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's Warrants HKEX column for more professional insights.

#Leap Motor #09863 #Technical Analysis #Support Level #Resistance Level #Warrants #Call Options #New Energy Vehicles #Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny #Short-term Analysis

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