Financial Daily: Oil prices fell over 10%, US stocks closed higher against the trend, global markets swing between tension and relief

- Focus

– Trump stated that senior officials from the US and Iran have held talks and will delay strikes on Iran's power network; Iran denied having negotiations with the US

– The United States urged WTO member countries to reassess the 'Most Favored Nation' binding tariff rates.

– Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months to 30%.

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- Stock Market

[US Market] All three major US stock indexes rose more than 1%.

Trump stated that he would delay the strike on Iran’s energy facilities, and claimed that “negotiations with Iran are ongoing.” Although Iran later denied talks with the US, oil prices still significantly retreated due to these developments. This prompted a jump in US stocks during trading, with all three major US indexes rising over 1%, slightly improving market sentiment.

At the close, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.15% to 6,581.00 points; the Nasdaq Index gained 1.38% to 21,946.76 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.38% to 46,208.47 points. The VIX panic index fell 2.35% to 26.15 points. Most US sector ETFs strengthened, while the oil and gas sector fell about 0.85%.

The index of the seven giants of US technology stocks closed up 1.36%, with all components finishing higher. Tesla rose approximately 3.5%, Amazon gained nearly 2.4%, Meta and NVIDIA rose over 1.7%, and Apple gained 1.41%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.86% to 6,800.66 points. Among popular Chinese stocks, WeRide surged 9.2%, Nio and Xpeng gained over 7%, and Alibaba rose over 3%. In individual stocks, Circle gained 0.53%, and Taiwan Semiconductor rose 2.78%.

[European Market] Major European country indexes mostly closed higher on Monday.

Major European country indexes mostly closed higher on Monday. At the close, the pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.61% to 576.78 points. The pan-European STOXX 50 Index rose 1.33% to 5,574.32 points.

The German DAX 30 Index rose 1.22% to 22,653.86 points; the French CAC 40 Index gained 0.79% to 7,726.20 points; and the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 0.24% to 9,894.15 points.

[Asian Market] Asian stock markets declined significantly on Monday, with South Korea’s main index falling nearly 6.5%.

Asian stock markets fell significantly on Monday, with Japan's index dropping over 3% and South Korea's main index falling nearly 6.5%. By the close, the Nikkei 225 Index was down 3.48% at 51,515.49 points, and Japan's TOPIX Index was down 3.41% at 3,486.44 points. The KOSPI Index in South Korea dropped 6.49% to close at 5,405.75 points.

[Hong Kong Market] All three major Hong Kong stock indexes closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down over 3.5%.

Hong Kong stocks plunged on Monday due to global market sentiment, with all three major indexes falling over 3%. By the close, the Hang Seng Index was down 3.54% at 24,382.47 points, the Hang Seng TECH Index was down 3.28% at 4,712.48 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was down 3.11% at 8,307.82 points. In terms of sectors, non-ferrous metal stocks saw significant pullbacks, with China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals and Chifeng Gold falling over 25%, and Laopu Gold closing down about 9%. Tech stocks weakened, with Bilibili closing down about 6% and Alibaba down about 3%. Semiconductor stocks declined, with SMIC closing down about 5%.

[A-share Market] A-shares opened lower and continued to decline, with the three major indexes falling over 3%.

A-shares plummeted on Monday, declining throughout the day, with all three major indexes falling over 3%. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly dropped below the 3,800-point mark during trading. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 3.63% at 3,813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index was down 3.76% at 13,345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index was down 3.49% at 3,235.22 points. In terms of sectors, aviation, agriculture, brokerage, and real estate led the declines. Precious metals fell across the board, with Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, and Sichuan Gold hitting the lower limit, and many stocks dropping over 6%. Coal stocks bucked the trend, with Yunnan Coal Energy and Liaoning Energy both hitting the upper limit.

– Bonds

[US Bonds] US Treasury yields turned from rising to falling.

Due to reports that Trump is 'negotiating with Iran,' US Treasury yields fluctuated sharply during trading and eventually turned negative. By the New York close, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note had fallen by 4.75 basis points to 4.3321%, while the yield on the two-year US Treasury note had dropped by 6.31 basis points to 3.8349%.

[Non-US Bond Markets] European government bond yields generally declined.

European government bond yields generally fell on Monday. By the European close, the yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond had dropped by 3.9 basis points to 3.005%, while the yield on the UK’s 10-year government bond had fallen by 8.6 basis points to 4.907%. France’s 10-year government bond yield fell by 3.8 basis points to 3.718%.

[China Bond Market] On Monday, most government bond futures declined.

On Monday, most treasury futures declined, with only the 30-year bond strengthening. At the close, the main 30-year contract rose by 0.07%, the main 10-year contract fell by 0.09%, the main 5-year contract dropped by 0.05%, and the main 2-year contract decreased by 0.02%.

– Foreign exchange

[US Dollar] The US dollar significantly retreated, with the ICE US Dollar Index falling by approximately 0.6%.

The US dollar saw a significant retreat. In late New York trading, the ICE US Dollar Index fell by about 0.6% to 99.017 points; the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped by around 0.5% to 1,204.88 points.

[Non-US Currencies] The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, with the Japanese yen rising more than 0.5%.

The US dollar weakened against most major global currencies, with the Japanese yen rising over 0.5%. In late New York trading, the US dollar fell 0.56% against the yen to 158.34 yen. The euro rose 0.37% against the dollar to 1.1614 dollars; the pound climbed 0.63% against the dollar to 1.3428 dollars; the Australian dollar fell 0.14% against the dollar.

[Renminbi] The US dollar against offshore renminbi stood at 6.8841 yuan.

In late New York trading, the US dollar against offshore renminbi fell by 226 points from the previous trading day’s close to 6.8841 yuan. Onshore renminbi against the US dollar dropped by 245 points from the previous trading day’s closing price to 6.9062 yuan.

[Cryptocurrency] Cryptocurrency markets surged during the session, with Bitcoin rising over 6%.

On Monday, cryptocurrency markets surged during the session due to weaker oil prices, with Bitcoin rising over 6%, pushing its price back above $70,000, nearing $72,000 at one point.

– Product

[Energy] US crude oil futures prices fell by more than 10%.

Oil prices plummeted intra-day with a drop of over 10% after Trump stated that the strike plan on Iran's energy facilities would be delayed and mentioned ongoing negotiations with Iran. In New York trading, US crude oil futures fell about 10.3%, settling at $88.13 per barrel.

[Precious Metals] Precious metals showed mixed performance, with gold prices following a V-shaped trend.

Precious Metals:Gold prices continued to fall but rebounded intra-day to recover some losses. In New York trading, spot gold fell 1.99% to $4,402.52 per ounce; US gold futures dropped 3.74% to $4,437.20 per ounce.

Metals Futures Market:Precious metals showed mixed performance, with spot silver nearing $70. Spot silver rose 2.02% to $69.3230 per ounce; US silver futures fell 0.78% to $69.115 per ounce. US copper futures climbed 2.06% to $5.4850 per pound; spot platinum dropped 2.40%, while spot palladium increased by 1.35%.

[Disclaimer]

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