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The US-Iran peace talks present conflicting narratives! What’s next for oil prices?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Mar 24 10:24

CNOOC shows strong price signals while the oil and gas sector experiences both overbought and oversold conditions

On the previous day (March 23), the oil and gas sector showed significant divergence $CNOOC (00883.HK)$
Strong stocks show overbought sell signals $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ Deeply oversold stocks show strong buy signals, with overall short-term sentiment being neutral; differentiation is required
In our recent [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast],March 23 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - COSCO Shipping Energy, Xiaomi, CNOOCCNOOC was reviewed in the day's commentary: it closed at HKD 30.50, with its recent obvious trading range between HKD 20.54 and HKD 30.98, representing a total fluctuation of approximately 50.8%. The current price is already close to the top of this range. If we look at the short term, the nearest support level is around HKD 29.80 to HKD 29.50, which is close to the day's low of HKD 29.82 and also near the 5-day moving average at HKD 29.51. Next support is at the 10-day moving average of approximately HKD 29.10; if this level is broken, the correction could potentially deepen. On the upside, resistance is first seen at the recent high of HKD 30.98, followed by the HKD 31.00 to HKD 31.11 area, as this region is close to both the psychological round number level and the upper Bollinger Band. The next higher target zone is at HKD 32.00. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$
From a technical perspective, the moving averages are still aligned upwards, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines clearly arranged from top to bottom, indicating that the trend remains strong. The closing price at HKD 30.50 is above the MA10 (HKD 29.10), MA30 (HKD 26.72), and MA60 (HKD 24.39), confirming a solid bullish pattern.
On the previous day (March 23), the oil and gas sector showed significant divergence $CNOOC (00883.HK)$ Strong stocks show overbought sell signals $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ Deeply oversold stocks show strong buy signals, with overall short-term sentiment being neutral; differentiation is required In our recent [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast],[Share Link: March 23 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - COSCO Shipping Energy, Xiaomi, CNOOC]In the review of CNOOC: the closing price was HKD 30.50, with a clear recent trading range between HKD 20.54 and HKD 30.98, accumulating an overall fluctuation of approximately 50.8%, and the current price is close to the top of this range. For the short term, the nearest support level lies around HKD 29.80 to HKD 29.50—close to the intraday low at HKD 29.82 and also near the 5-day moving average at HKD 29.51. The next support is around the 10-day moving average at approximately HKD 29.10, and if this level is breached, the correction could potentially deepen. Immediate resistance is seen at the recent high of HKD 30.98, followed by the HKD 31.00 to HKD 31.11 range, as it coincides with both the round-number level and the upper Bollinger Band. The next target zone is around HKD 32.00. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the moving averages maintain an upward alignment, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines clearly arranged in descending order from top to bottom, indicating a still-strong trend. The closing price at HKD 30.50 remains above the MA...
In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI is at 68, entering the overbought zone, which shows that buying pressure remains but is starting to heat up in the short term. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the share price is approaching the upper band, usually indicating continued strength. However, this also means that chasing higher prices will require more precise timing for entry, as failure to break through could easily lead to short-term pullbacks near the upper band.
CNOOC rose against the market trend by 0.39% the previous day, showing a strong technical structure. However, technical indicators gave a 'sell' signal with an intensity of 11, creating a classic divergence between 'price strength and signal weakness,' suggesting significant short-term profit-taking pressure.
On the previous day (March 23), the oil and gas sector showed significant divergence $CNOOC (00883.HK)$ Strong stocks show overbought sell signals $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ Deeply oversold stocks show strong buy signals, with overall short-term sentiment being neutral; differentiation is required In our recent [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast],[Share Link: March 23 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - COSCO Shipping Energy, Xiaomi, CNOOC]In the review of CNOOC: the closing price was HKD 30.50, with a clear recent trading range between HKD 20.54 and HKD 30.98, accumulating an overall fluctuation of approximately 50.8%, and the current price is close to the top of this range. For the short term, the nearest support level lies around HKD 29.80 to HKD 29.50—close to the intraday low at HKD 29.82 and also near the 5-day moving average at HKD 29.51. The next support is around the 10-day moving average at approximately HKD 29.10, and if this level is breached, the correction could potentially deepen. Immediate resistance is seen at the recent high of HKD 30.98, followed by the HKD 31.00 to HKD 31.11 range, as it coincides with both the round-number level and the upper Bollinger Band. The next target zone is around HKD 32.00. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the moving averages maintain an upward alignment, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines clearly arranged in descending order from top to bottom, indicating a still-strong trend. The closing price at HKD 30.50 remains above the MA...
On the previous day (the 23rd), the oil and gas and related resources sectors showed significant differentiation. Below is a brief analysis of four core peer stocks:
1、 $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 10.76 (down 1.37%), above all major moving averages, RSI at 65 (approaching overbought), sell signal (intensity 9). Short-term caution is needed for a potential pullback.
2. Sinopec: Closed at HKD 4.53 (down 3.21%), below MA10 and MA30, slightly above MA60, RSI at 23 (deeply oversold), strong buy signal (intensity 12), high probability of rebound.
3、 $KUNLUN ENERGY (00135.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 8.38 (down 1.53%), slightly below MA10, near MA30, above MA60, RSI at 53 (neutral), sell signal (intensity 9), insufficient upward momentum.
4、 $CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 48.66 (down 0.33%), above all major moving averages, RSI at 70 (overbought), sell signal (intensity 10). Similar to CNOOC, watch out for profit-taking.
Overall observation: CNOOC, PetroChina, and China Shenhua remain strong but show sell signals in overbought conditions. Sinopec is deeply oversold with a strong buy signal. The sector shows clear divergence between bulls and bears.。
Warrants Review and Picks:
First, let's review the performance of the CNOOC warrants and bull certificates recommended earlier: The CNOOC-related products recommended on March 17th saw good increases, among which $HS#CNOOCRC2808B.C (68828.HK)$ The increase reached 16% after two days, $UBCNOOC@EC2605A.C (23036.HK)$ A 13% increase after two days, $JPCNOOC@EC2605A.C (22983.HK)$ rose 10% in two days, meeting technical expectations.
On the previous day (March 23), the oil and gas sector showed significant divergence $CNOOC (00883.HK)$ Strong stocks show overbought sell signals $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ Deeply oversold stocks show strong buy signals, with overall short-term sentiment being neutral; differentiation is required In our recent [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast],[Share Link: March 23 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - COSCO Shipping Energy, Xiaomi, CNOOC]In the review of CNOOC: the closing price was HKD 30.50, with a clear recent trading range between HKD 20.54 and HKD 30.98, accumulating an overall fluctuation of approximately 50.8%, and the current price is close to the top of this range. For the short term, the nearest support level lies around HKD 29.80 to HKD 29.50—close to the intraday low at HKD 29.82 and also near the 5-day moving average at HKD 29.51. The next support is around the 10-day moving average at approximately HKD 29.10, and if this level is breached, the correction could potentially deepen. Immediate resistance is seen at the recent high of HKD 30.98, followed by the HKD 31.00 to HKD 31.11 range, as it coincides with both the round-number level and the upper Bollinger Band. The next target zone is around HKD 32.00. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the moving averages maintain an upward alignment, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines clearly arranged in descending order from top to bottom, indicating a still-strong trend. The closing price at HKD 30.50 remains above the MA...
Selected two CNOOC-related warrant products for your reference:
First one: $SGCNOOC@EC2611C.C (27004.HK)$ Leverage 5.2, strike price 35.32, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering excellent value for investors optimistic about CNOOC’s long-term trend.
Second one: $UBCNOOC@EP2609A.P (26838.HK)$ Leverage 5.6, strike price 24.86, with the highest leverage and low implied volatility, suitable for investors concerned about a short-term pullback in CNOOC.
On the previous day (March 23), the oil and gas sector showed significant divergence $CNOOC (00883.HK)$ Strong stocks show overbought sell signals $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ Deeply oversold stocks show strong buy signals, with overall short-term sentiment being neutral; differentiation is required In our recent [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast],[Share Link: March 23 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - COSCO Shipping Energy, Xiaomi, CNOOC]In the review of CNOOC: the closing price was HKD 30.50, with a clear recent trading range between HKD 20.54 and HKD 30.98, accumulating an overall fluctuation of approximately 50.8%, and the current price is close to the top of this range. For the short term, the nearest support level lies around HKD 29.80 to HKD 29.50—close to the intraday low at HKD 29.82 and also near the 5-day moving average at HKD 29.51. The next support is around the 10-day moving average at approximately HKD 29.10, and if this level is breached, the correction could potentially deepen. Immediate resistance is seen at the recent high of HKD 30.98, followed by the HKD 31.00 to HKD 31.11 range, as it coincides with both the round-number level and the upper Bollinger Band. The next target zone is around HKD 32.00. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the moving averages maintain an upward alignment, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines clearly arranged in descending order from top to bottom, indicating a still-strong trend. The closing price at HKD 30.50 remains above the MA...
On the previous day (March 23), the oil and gas sector showed significant divergence $CNOOC (00883.HK)$ Strong stocks show overbought sell signals $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$ Deeply oversold stocks show strong buy signals, with overall short-term sentiment being neutral; differentiation is required In our recent [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast],[Share Link: March 23 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - COSCO Shipping Energy, Xiaomi, CNOOC]In the review of CNOOC: the closing price was HKD 30.50, with a clear recent trading range between HKD 20.54 and HKD 30.98, accumulating an overall fluctuation of approximately 50.8%, and the current price is close to the top of this range. For the short term, the nearest support level lies around HKD 29.80 to HKD 29.50—close to the intraday low at HKD 29.82 and also near the 5-day moving average at HKD 29.51. The next support is around the 10-day moving average at approximately HKD 29.10, and if this level is breached, the correction could potentially deepen. Immediate resistance is seen at the recent high of HKD 30.98, followed by the HKD 31.00 to HKD 31.11 range, as it coincides with both the round-number level and the upper Bollinger Band. The next target zone is around HKD 32.00. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the moving averages maintain an upward alignment, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines clearly arranged in descending order from top to bottom, indicating a still-strong trend. The closing price at HKD 30.50 remains above the MA...
Risk Warning: Warrants exhibit significant leverage effects, whether call or put; always set stop-losses and invest within your means.
In light of CNOOC's 'price strong, signal weak' divergence, what do you think is its next move:
A. False divergence, direct breakout above 31 yuan
B. True correction, retesting support at 29.5 yuan
C. Consolidating near the high of 30 yuan
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantPicks #WarrantStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HKStocksWarrantsJenny #CNOOC #OilAndGasSector #TechnicalAnalysis #HKStocksOilAndGas
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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