Xiaomi's Pre-Earnings Technical Signals Diverge: Full Breakdown of Key Levels and Indicators

Xiaomi Group will announce its latest earnings after today's (24th) market close. The pre-earnings stock price has been fluctuating between HKD 32.06 and HKD 32.86. The current share price has consecutively fallen below the 10-day moving average (HKD 34.09), the 30-day moving average (HKD 34.61), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 35.95). The short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages have formed a bearish alignment, indicating weak near- to medium-term trends. Notably, Xiaomi’s stock price has experienced a 5-day volatility of up to 17.3%, with significant market fluctuations potentially signaling an approaching turning point.

Technical indicators show clear divergence: the Stochastic Oscillator has entered the oversold zone, while the MACD also issued a buy signal. Overall technical indicators suggest a 'Buy' rating with a signal strength of 9, providing technical support for a short-term rebound. However, RSI (39), Williams %R, CCI, and other indicators remain in neutral zones, while momentum oscillators, rate-of-change indicators, Ichimoku Cloud, and Bollinger Bands are issuing sell signals, indicating that downside risks have not been fully released.

In terms of support and resistance, the current stock price is near the first support level at HKD 30.9. If it stabilizes, there may be upward momentum to challenge the first resistance level at HKD 34.5; if it breaks down, it might fall to the second support level at HKD 28.4. The current market expectation for an upward movement is 54%, slightly favoring an uptrend.

Bloomberg Intelligence expects Xiaomi’s revenue growth rate to decline to single digits this time, marking the lowest growth since 2023. Tight chip supplies and rising memory chip costs could pressure gross margins and shipment volumes in the smartphone business, but the EV division's annual revenue is expected to grow by over 30%. A CMB International report highlighted the new SU7 and MiMo-V2 models as showcasing the 'Human-Car-Home' ecosystem competitiveness. Over the next three years, a planned RMB 60 billion investment in AI research will benefit profit margins in the long term. They maintain a 'Buy' rating but cut EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 by 6%-13%, lowering the target price from HKD 50.21 to HKD 47.16.

During the period from March 19 to 23, there was a clear divergence in the street-level holdings of derivatives related to Xiaomi Group: the holdings of call warrants continued to rise, increasing from 6,207.07 million units to 6,393.48 million units, with an accumulated increase of about 3%; whereas the holdings of put warrants remained low and fluctuated, generally hovering around the range of 260-280 million units during this period. In terms of bull and bear contracts, the trading volume of bull contracts fluctuated significantly, briefly rising to 465.61 million units on March 20 before quickly retreating, returning to 419.41 million units on the 23rd, which is roughly in line with the initial level at the start of the cycle; the trading volume of bear contracts remained stable in the range of 620-630 million units, slightly falling back to 619.86 million units on the 23rd. Overall, the current street-level holdings of bull contracts are significantly lower than those of bear contracts, indicating that the market remains cautious about the sustainability of Xiaomi's short-term stock price rebound. However, the continuous accumulation of long positions in call warrants reflects the willingness of mid-to-long term bullish investors to position themselves.

Looking back at March 17, 2026, over the following two trading days, Xiaomi Group’s underlying stock cumulatively rose by 2.71%, with corresponding bullish derivatives recording gains across the board: $BIXIAMI@EC2612A.C (13186.HK)$ 、 $HSXIAMI@EC2612C.C (22791.HK)$ Increasing by 15% and 14% respectively during the period, $BP#XIAMIRC2610D.C (69338.HK)$ 、 $JP#XIAMIRC2609K.C (69011.HK)$ While the increases were 13% and 12%, showing that the product movements closely aligned with the performance of the underlying stock, reflecting the price elasticity characteristic of leveraged derivatives.

If you are optimistic about Xiaomi’s performance, regarding call warrants, $HSXIAMI@EC2612C.C (22791.HK)$ With an exercise price of 37.12 yuan, offering approximately 4.7 times leverage, its distinguishing feature is having the lowest premium among similar products while also maintaining ideal implied volatility and leverage levels, making it suitable for investors who are bullish on Xiaomi but wish to control costs. Another option is $BIXIAMI@EC2612A.C (13186.HK)$ With an exercise price of 37.15 yuan and leverage of approximately 4.6 times, this warrant has the lowest implied volatility in the market and relatively high leverage, making it suitable for strategies sensitive to volatility but still optimistic about the stock price rising.

As for put warrants, $BIXIAMI@EP2606B.P (13235.HK)$ With an exercise price of 31.88 yuan and leverage of approximately 5.4 times, this warrant features the lowest implied volatility among similar products and relatively high leverage, making it appropriate for investors who are bearish on Xiaomi’s short-term outlook and focus on managing implied volatility risk. Additionally, $UBXIAMI@EP2605A.P (23061.HK)$ With an exercise price of 31.28 yuan and leverage of approximately 6.6 times, it offers relatively higher leverage, suiting aggressive plays willing to take on more risk to capture potential declines.

For bull certificates, $HS#XIAMIRC2610A.C (69497.HK)$ With a recovery price of 29 yuan and leverage of approximately 8.7 times, this contract provides relatively higher leverage, making it suitable for aggressive investors with a strong bullish view. $UB#XIAMIRC2611A.C (61805.HK)$The recovery price is also at 29 yuan, with a leverage of approximately 8.4 times. It similarly offers higher leverage and can serve as another option for bullish strategies.

Regarding bearish warrants, $UB#XIAMIRP2810E.P (59592.HK)$The recovery price is 37.8 yuan, with a leverage of about 6.2 times. Its distinguishing feature is that the actual leverage is the highest among similar products, and it has the lowest premium, making it suitable for investors who are bearish on the market outlook and seeking high leverage effects.$JP#XIAMIRP2810G.P (60434.HK)$The recovery price is also 37.8 yuan, with a leverage of about 6.2 times. The actual leverage is also the highest, and the premium is relatively low, providing another high-efficiency choice for bearish strategies.

Do you think Xiaomi's share price will first challenge the resistance level of 34.5 yuan or break below the support level of 30.9 yuan after its earnings announcement? The derivatives market indicates that long-term bullish funds continue to increase their positions, but short-term sentiment remains cautious. What range do you think Xiaomi’s rebound target price will fall into this round? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'HK Stock Warrants'!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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