Preview | Kuaishou to release earnings report, focus on profit margins and the commercialization pace of Ke Ling AI

$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ Scheduled to disclose Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results on March 25, 2026, with an earnings call to be held at 19:00 on the same evening.

For Kuaishou at present, the market's core focus lies in whether the commercial foundations of advertising and e-commerce are solid, whether profitability can remain stable, and whether KeLing AI can transition from a 'narrative theme' to 'verifiable performance growth.'

Overview of earnings expectations: steady revenue growth

According to consensus estimates, the market has robust expectations for Kuaishou’s revenue growth in Q4 2025, with notable profit growth anticipated. Revenue is projected at 38.564 billion yuan, representing an annual increase of approximately 8.99%; earnings per share are estimated at 1.107 yuan, reflecting an annual rise of about 22.99%.

Looking at the overall performance for the year, if we combine Kuaishou’s actual results from Q1 to Q3 2025 (Q1 revenue of 32.608 billion yuan/profit of 4.58 billion; Q2 revenue of 35.046 billion yuan/profit of 5.618 billion; Q3 revenue of 35.6 billion yuan/profit of 5 billion) with the Q4 forecast, FY2025 full-year revenue would be approximately 142 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at around 20.5 billion yuan.

From this perspective, overall annual growth is no longer the biggest mystery. What truly determines the 'quality' of the earnings reportis whether the profit margin in Q4 can be maintained in a complex environment, and whether management can provide clear guidance on AI commercialization for 2026.。

Analysis of key earnings highlights: the synergistic battle of advertising, e-commerce, live streaming, and AI

- Online marketing services: Can AI efficiency stabilize double-digit growth?

Kuaishou's online marketing services revenue in Q3 2025 reached 20.1 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 14.0%). The company disclosed that the application of large AI models (particularly OneRec) has contributed a 4%-5% revenue boost to domestic marketing services, while AIGC-generated marketing materials have driven quarterly spending surpassing 3 billion yuan.

Sellers broadly expect advertising growth in Q4 2025 to remain in the range of 12%-13%. If growth falls below this range, the market may interpret it as a marginal slowdown in the platform's traffic monetization efficiency; strong performance, on the other hand, would demonstrate that AI-driven recommendations and marketing tools continue to yield benefits.

E-commerce Business: 'High-Quality Growth' Validation under the Pan-Shelf Transformation

Official data shows that Kuaishou's average DAU in Q3 of 2025 was 416.2 million, with an MAU of 731.1 million. More crucially, the GMV share from pan-shelf scenarios has exceeded 32%, indicating that its e-commerce structure is transitioning from reliance on 'content-driven sales' to a 'platform-based, shelf-oriented' model.

The GMV forecast for Q4 of 2025 is expected to grow by approximately 13% year-over-year (compared to actual GMV of 462.1 billion yuan in Q4 of 2024). Rather than just focusing on GMV growth rates, the market is more concerned about monetization rates (Take Rate), commission levels, and the contribution of shelf scenarios to overall profitability. If GMV growth occurs alongside stagnant monetization rates, the boost to financial results will be limited.

Live Streaming Business: Can it reverse the decline and alleviate performance drag?

Live streaming revenue in Q3 of 2025 was 9.6 billion yuan, marking only a 2.5% year-over-year increase, reflecting relatively weak performance. The market expects live streaming revenue in Q4 of 2025 to possibly decline by about 3% year-over-year to 9.6 billion yuan.

Live streaming remains a key component of Kuaishou's cash flow. Even if it is no longer the main growth driver, the live streaming business needs to demonstrate stability; otherwise, the market will become more concerned about the sustainability of its profit structure.

Kelin AI: Transitioning from 'Traffic Story' to 'Core Valuation'

Kelin AI has become the biggest valuation variable for Kuaishou. According to reports as of December 2025, its monthly revenue has surpassed 20 million US dollars, corresponding to an ARR of 240 million US dollars, with over 60 million global creators and more than 30,000 partner enterprises.

With the comprehensive upgrade of Kelin 3.0 in terms of video consistency, realism, and native audio capabilities, the market is no longer satisfied with qualitative descriptions of rapid growth. Goldman Sachs believes there is room to revise upward the revenue forecast for Kelin in 2026. During this earnings call, the market urgently needs to hear quantitative information regarding enterprise client share, gross profit margins, and overseas monetization.

According to market expectations, the subsequent impact of Kuaishou's Q4 2025 earnings report depends on two core pieces of information:

1. Whether the profit margin in the fourth quarter is stronger than expected, especially whether the adjusted net profit can exceed expectations

2. Whether Kuaishou AI can provide a more 'granular' commercial roadmap for 2026

Kuaishou must use this earnings report to prove that its 'platform + AI application' dual-driver logic can be translated into tangible results that the market is willing to pay for in the long term, rather than just a short-term technology boom. Growth is important, but quality growth is more valuable.

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