🎁The grand event coincides with stock price turbulence; as earnings announcement approaches, can Xiaomi prove itself this time?

On Tuesday, March 24, Xiaomi Group will release its Q4 2025 and full-year report card.

Previously,On the evening of March 19, Lei Jun stood under the spotlight, using a spring conference themed 'Human-Car-Home Full Ecosystem' to showcase Xiaomi Group's ambition to the market:

The new generation SU7 has been launched with great fanfare, officially announcing a hefty investment of 60 billion in AI over three years, and formally unveiling the self-developed MiMo-V2 large model.Luo Fuli, head of Xiaomi's MiMo large model, personally penned an article referring to it as a 'silent ambush.' Industry heavyweights Wang Chuanfu, Li Xiang, and He Xiaopeng gathered to show their support, making it a top-tier lineup in the industry.

However, the day after the event, $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ the stock closed at HKD33.2, down more than 8%. On one side was the grand narrative of AI + Automobiles, while on the other, the capital market remained unimpressed.

What exactly is the market concerned about?

How much anticipation is left for this upcoming earnings report?

Looking back at the first three quarters of 2025, Xiaomi's revenue reached 340.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%; the adjusted net profit was 32.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.5%, showing remarkable growth.Based on the first three quarters alone, Xiaomi’s adjusted profit for 2025 has already significantly exceeded the total for the whole of 2024.

However, entering Q4, the market consensus expects revenue of 117.15 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 7.47%), with earnings per share at 0.214 yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 40.5%).This suggests that the profit margin in the fourth quarter will likely come under significant pressure.So, is the pullback in profit margins a short-term fluctuation, or the starting point for a downward revision of the profitability outlook for 2026?

Where will the stock price go after the earnings release?

Will this mark the beginning of a rebound or will performance pressures continue to mount?👇👇

[Prize Activity]

🏆 Event One |Predict voting participation $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$The closing price direction on the first trading day after the earnings release (March 25th),Fellow investors who guess correctly will equally share 10,000 points!

Activity Two | Speak your mind: Are you optimistic about Xiaomi Group's earnings?

Can the surge in auto and breakthroughs in AI offset pressure from the smartphone business?
After the stock price pullback, is it a good time to position or should we wait?

>> Welcome to share your views in the comment section,A well-reasoned comment of over 30 words will earn 66 points!

Note: The rewards campaign will end at 18:00 Beijing Time on March 24th; rewards are stackable and will be distributed uniformly after this earnings season.

Ask Futubull AI: What impact does Xiaomi’s parallel expansion strategy of 'Smartphones + Automobiles + AI' have on its income statement?

🔥 Key focuses: Auto surge + AI breakthrough + Genuine share repurchases

1. The automotive business continues to scale, with the second growth curve becoming increasingly evident.

Within 34 minutes of the launch of the new SU7 model, over 15,000 orders were locked in. Haitong International forecasts that automotive business revenue will reach RMB 148.16 billion by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 39%, with revenue contribution jumping from single digits to 30%. The automotive business is building an effective growth trajectory to offset cyclical pressures in the consumer electronics industry.

2. AI technology reaches global pinnacle

On the day of the product launch, Xiaomi officially unveiled its MiMo-V2 series of three self-developed large models, with the flagship model MiMo-V2-Pro ranking eighth globally and second in China on the comprehensive intelligence leaderboard for large models. Over the next three years, Xiaomi's total investment in AI will exceed RMB 60 billion, with projected spending surpassing RMB 16 billion in 2026 alone. Goldman Sachs' report highlights that Xiaomi is transitioning from heavy R&D investment to realizing results, solidifying its position as a "leader in physical AI."

3. Genuine cash repurchases demonstrate management’s strong support for long-term value.

On March 18, Xiaomi spent nearly HKD 100 million to repurchase 2.85 million shares at an average price of HKD 35.08 per share. Year-to-date, cumulative repurchases have reached HKD 4.577 billion, second only to Tencent Holdings, reflecting firm confidence in the company's value.

🛡️ Risk observation: Pressure on smartphone business + low pricing for new car models + high investments.

1. Smartphone business faces cost pressures; can premiumization withstand the challenges?

The rise in memory chip prices has placed cost pressure on the smartphone business. By Q4 2025, DRAM/NAND contract prices are expected to increase by over 200% year-on-year. Bocom International downgraded Xiaomi’s rating to "Neutral," setting a target price of HKD 37, forecasting that smartphone gross margins may drop to 6.8% by 2026. For Xiaomi, the key test in Q4 and into 2026 will be whether premiumization can offset rising costs.

2. Pricing strategy for new car models raises concerns.

The material cost of the new generation SU7 has increased by nearly 20,000 yuan, but the pricing has only been raised by 4,000 yuan to 219,900 yuan. The market is concerned that 'adding volume without raising prices' will further squeeze profit margins. How to find the optimal balance between scale expansion and profitability is the answer the market is looking forward to.

3. High R&D investment persists; the commercialization path for AI still needs clarity

Goldman Sachs expects R&D expenditure to reach as high as 40 billion yuan by 2026. The continued increase in investment will have a certain impact on short-term profits. What the market truly wants to hear is not 'continue investing in AI,' but rather how AI can be integrated into Xiaomi Group's existing mobile phone, automobile, and IoT business systems—and when it will start converting into revenue, ARPU, or stronger ecosystem barriers. Before returns from AI investments are realized, short-term profit pressure remains a real challenge.

The automotive business is accelerating its production ramp-up, AI technology is among the global leaders, and management’s continued share buybacks demonstrate confidence. Xiaomi Group is responding to market expectations with concrete actions.

However, before the future narrative is fulfilled, Xiaomi may need to first address market concerns:When will the automotive business transition from volume expansion to stable growth and profitability? Can production capacity ramp-up exceed expectations? When will billions in AI investment translate into commercial returns? How should short-term profitability pressure be mitigated?

Dear fellow investors, please click to schedule and lock in the earnings call: Xiaomi Group Full-Year 2025 Results Live Broadcast (Simultaneous Interpretation)

Upcoming earnings reports from star tech stocks—how to deploy strategies effortlessly? 'Earnings Express' powered by Futubull AI identifies key insights, helping you build an options strategy in three steps >>

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