🎁The race is on for Hong Kong stocks in the new consumer sector! Among Laopu Gold, Pop Mart, Mixue, Guming, and Haidilao, who will take the lead with strong gains?

This week, Hong Kong's new consumption sector is entering the highly anticipated 'Earnings Season Challenge'.

$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$、$POP MART (09992.HK)$、$MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK)$、$GUMING (01364.HK)$、$HAIDILAO (06862.HK)$Familiar names will soon release their full-year report cards for 2025!Has the booming 'Consumer Recovery Wave' of the past year truly translated into tangible earnings growth? And who can deliver an earnings surprise to propel their stock price to the next level?

The current consumer market is experiencing a 'K-shaped divergence'.On one side, premium consumption remains resilient, with national-trend gold and trendy toys becoming the 'social currency' for the younger generation. On the other side, value-for-money consumption continues to penetrate, with tea beverage chains using extreme efficiency to lock in essential demand. Meanwhile, brands caught in the middle face the harshest squeeze. Every company is telling a different story, and their earnings are the litmus test for the authenticity of these narratives.Multiple institutions have pointed out that under the trend of consumption divergence, companies with strong brand premiums, robust supply chain barriers, or powerful overseas expansion capabilities are gradually widening the gap from their peers.

As the leader in the ancient gold craftsmanship segment,$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$Laopu Gold is fully benefiting from the dual dividends of rising gold prices and brand premium.Previously announced profit alert forecasts 217%-229% revenue growth to RMB 27-28 billion for 2025, with net profit increasing by 226%-233% to RMB 4.8-4.9 billion, surpassing market expectations.

However, the market is more focused on its ability to raise prices.After a 20%-30% price increase for certain products in February 2026, long queues were still seen at stores in some cities.Citi and Goldman Sachs have both set target prices above HKD 1,000, with a potential upside of over 80%.However, dissenting voices have also emerged in the market.China Merchants Securities has issued a rare 'reduce' rating, believing that growth momentum may marginally decline under a high base effect.

Will the high volatility in gold prices suppress consumer demand? Could rapid expansion bring cash flow pressure? Will this 'ultra-high expectation' report continue to exceed expectations or hit a bottleneck?

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Looking now at the leading player in the trendy toy market,$POP MART (09992.HK)$：It is accelerating its transformation from being 'China's First Trendy Toy Stock' to becoming a 'Global IP Operator'.Previously disclosed Q3 2025 data showed overall revenue increased by 245%-250% year-over-year, with overseas markets surging 365%-370%, prompting several investment banks, including CICC and Citi, to raise their target prices.Nevertheless, the market remains focused on one core question: Can LABUBU’s popularity be sustained? Is there certainty in the incubation of new IPs?

Just before the earnings release, the news of the company's collaboration with Sony Pictures to develop a live-action animated film based on LABUBU has opened up an imaginative space for expanding the value of its intellectual property.Additionally, in January this year, Pop Mart successively invested heavily in share repurchases. Continuous repurchases at a low position also demonstrate management's confidence in the company’s future.Bank of America Securities previously predicted that by the time earnings are announced in March, visibility for the group will have improved, potentially triggering a revaluation.

Let’s shift our focus to the tea beverage sector.

The 'King of Ten Thousand Stores' in the freshly made tea beverage market$MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK)$, with over 53,000 stores globally, its powerful scale effect is its core competitive advantage.In the first half of 2025, the company achieved approximately 40% high growth in both revenue and net profit. The core logic behind this is the 'trinity of total cost leadership': deep integration of supply chain, brand IP, and store operations. Haitong International set a target price of HKD 482, believing it has a strong competitive advantage in lower-tier markets.What the market is concerned about is whether individual store growth will face bottlenecks given such a large scale, and whether overseas expansion can successfully replicate the domestic model.

On the other hand,$GUMING (01364.HK)$another path has been taken.First-half revenue grew by 41%, with the food delivery subsidy strategy effectively driving same-store growth. Haitong International and HSBC have both raised their target prices, optimistic about the incremental opportunities brought by its new coffee products and breakfast offerings.The market is looking forward to whether the new coffee business can truly grow into a second growth curve? Can the pace of store expansion match market expectations? CICC expects its same-store revenue in 2026 to achieve growth of 0-5%.

Meanwhile, the hotpot leader$HAIDILAO (06862.HK)$is currently in a painful period of transformation.First-half performance was weak, with fierce industry competition and rapid product trend iterations bringing significant pressure.However, the company is actively seeking change:Food delivery business revenue grew nearly 60% year-over-year, with the 'Rice Dishes' series contributing over 55%; the multi-brand portfolio incubated through the 'Red Pomegranate Plan' saw revenue grow more than 2x, and 'Yan Qing BBQ Shop' now has 70 stores. More notably,The company distributed a dividend of HKD 0.338 per share, yielding a dividend rate of over 6%,Providing some downside protection for the stock price.

What the market wants to see is:Can the multi-brand strategy under the 'Red Pomegranate Plan' truly generate a second growth curve? Can table turnover rates rebound from the bottom and support a valuation recovery?

Morgan Stanley, in a report titled 'Turning Point Ahead, Growth Restarting,' raised its target price by 23% to HKD 21.5, believing that same-store sales growth will turn positive starting this year; while Jefferies maintained a 'Hold' rating but lowered the target price to HKD 15.4.

So, fellow investors, who do you think has greater breakout potential? Who will deliver the most impressive earnings report this week and lead the new consumer sector?Quickly leave your predictions~

[Guess the Top Gainer to Win Points]

Vote for the stock you think will have the highest increase on the first trading day after earnings release. Fellow investors who predict correctly will share the rewards.10,000 points!

(The voting will end at 9:00 AM Beijing Time on March 25; rewards will be distributed uniformly after this earnings season ends.)

Laopu Gold’s confidence in raising prices, Pop Mart’s aggressive overseas expansion, Mixue’s ten-thousand store milestone…Fellow investors, who do you favor? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section!

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