Short-term reward-to-risk assessment: Sinotruk (China Heavy Duty Truck) has a defensive level at HKD 35, with limited upside potential to HKD 40.

As of March 20, 2026, Sinotruk (03808.HK) closed at HKD 37.94, recording a significant daily increase of 8.40%, with a turnover of HKD 562 million, indicating active market trading. However, from a technical perspective, the stock price has retreated noticeably after reaching an earlier high of HKD 45.78 and is currently in a phase of high-level consolidation. Today (March 23), the share price fell by 1.32% to HKD 37.38.

The short-term moving averages (MA10 and MA30) are located at HKD 37.29 and HKD 39.31 respectively, showing that the 10-day line is close to the current price, while the 30-day line acts as initial resistance above. Based on multiple technical indicators, the system issued a 'sell' signal with a strength of 9. Several oscillation indicators, such as RSI (36) and stochastic oscillators, show 'neutral' signals, with only the bull-bear power indicator and Ichimoku Cloud presenting 'buy' signals, reflecting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. According to technical analysis data, near-term support levels are at HKD 34.6 and HKD 34, while resistance levels are at HKD 40.6 and HKD 42.9. The probability of an upward movement is 55%, with a 5-day volatility of 10.6%, indicating higher stock price fluctuations and unclear short-term trends.

Reviewing the warrant market performance, according to the product review on March 18, the Huatai call warrant (23024) mentioned that day recorded an 11% increase over the next two days (up to March 20), significantly outperforming the underlying stock’s gain of 3.95% during the same period, demonstrating that during the rebound of the underlying stock, the leverage effect of related warrants was effectively utilized, providing better capture of gains for holders.

Integrating the insights from the March 20 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast], the program clearly stated that Sinotruk is not currently in a 'breakout upward' structure but is in an adjustment phase. The stock price needs to stabilize above the HKD 40 level to confirm the resumption of upward momentum. The program's analysis suggests that around HKD 35 is a key support area during the recent pullback, with resistance concentrated at the psychological HKD 40 level. Therefore, the short-term reward-to-risk ratio involves using HKD 35 as a defensive point and targeting HKD 40. In the warrant market, funds are mainly concentrated in call warrants with an exercise price near HKD 40, reflecting some capital betting on a rebound to this level. However, given that turnover and street inventory have not significantly increased, there is no strong consensus bullish setup, and investors should be aware of the impact of time decay on warrant prices before the stock price breaks out.

Summarizing the above analysis, the current share price is at HKD 37.94, right between support and resistance. Investors who believe the stock can hold above support and challenge resistance may consider deploying using warrant products, but need to carefully choose terms to balance risk. Below is an analysis of two warrant products with relatively clear terms, whose exercise prices are closely related to technical resistance levels:

The first product is the Huatai call warrant (23024).$HUSNTRK@EC2606A.C (23024.HK)$The latest price of this product is 0.350 yuan, with a strike price set at 40.00 yuan, which corresponds exactly to the short-term key resistance level. Its out-of-the-money degree is approximately 6.61%, placing it in a slightly out-of-the-money state, making it suitable for betting on a breakout above the psychological threshold of 40 yuan. The product has a leverage of 50.9 times, offering high sensitivity and effectively capturing volatility when the underlying stock breaks out. Notably, its street ratio is only 0.09%, indicating highly concentrated holdings and relatively low potential supply-demand imbalance pressure. The last trading day is May 26, 2026, allowing investors to utilize its time value of about two months while waiting for the stock price to make a directional choice after adjustment. The advantage of this product lies in its precise alignment of the strike price with the technical resistance level, as well as its very low street ratio, meaning its price movement better reflects changes in the underlying stock.

Another product is the Maiyin call warrant (19945).$MBSNTRK@EC2606A.C (19945.HK)$This product has a strike price of 48.0880 yuan, with an out-of-the-money degree of about 28.08%, categorizing it as a deep out-of-the-money structure. Its leverage is also as high as 50.1 times. The advantage of this product lies in its high leverage feature. If the stock price can break free from the current consolidation pattern and exhibit strong upward momentum, breaking through the second resistance level of 42.9 yuan and continuing higher, these terms will provide a more pronounced amplification effect. Its street ratio is 2.10%, relatively low, and the last trading day is June 12, 2026, meaning time decay pressure is relatively manageable. However, due to its deeper out-of-the-money status, deploying this product requires expecting a significant rise in the underlying stock; otherwise, time decay will be more noticeable. It is suitable for investors with strong confidence in future upside potential.

Overall, China Heavy Duty Truck is currently in a critical consolidation phase in the short term. Investors should consider 35 yuan as an important defensive zone and closely monitor whether the stock price can break through the first resistance level of 40.6 yuan to confirm the end of the consolidation. When selecting CBBC products, investors should balance leverage and out-of-the-money levels based on their judgment of the rebound strength, while closely observing the performance of the underlying stock around support and resistance levels.

Interactive Questions

Do you think China Heavy Duty Truck (03808) can break through the 40-yuan resistance level in the short term?

A. Yes, there is sufficient momentum for an imminent breakout.

B. No, further consolidation is needed.

#China National Heavy Duty Truck #03808 #Technical Analysis #Support Level #Resistance Level #Warrants #Call Options #Hong Kong Stock Podcast #Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny #Short-term Analysis

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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