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港股窩輪Jenny
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XPeng Motors rebounds from the bottom, what’s the outlook for the stock given the divergence in institutional ratings?

$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$
After hitting a low of 67.55 yuan, it quickly rebounded, reaching a high of 73.4 yuan during trading. From the perspective of the moving average system, the stock price is currently below the 10-day moving average (75.42 yuan) but slightly above the 30-day moving average (70.34 yuan), while the 60-day moving average is at 73.76 yuan. The stock price is hovering between these key moving averages, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. Notably, the stock price failed to break through the 10-day moving average and instead fell below short-term moving averages, suggesting insufficient upward momentum.
In terms of technical indicators, the stochastic oscillator shows an oversold condition, issuing a buy signal, which could indicate a potential rebound. However, multiple other oscillators such as RSI, Williams %R, and CCI are in neutral territory, reflecting cautious market sentiment. MACD signals and the bull-bear power indicator suggest buying opportunities, whereas Ichimoku Cloud and rate-of-change indicators show sell signals. This divergence indicates that the market direction remains unclear. The Bollinger Bands signal buying opportunities, implying that the stock price may be approaching the lower band and have room for a rebound.
In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support level is at 66.3 yuan, with the second support level at 58.6 yuan—these will be critical defensive points if the stock declines. Resistance levels are set at 80.2 yuan and 84.6 yuan; if the stock can break through these levels, it may trigger a new uptrend. With an upward probability of 0.54, the market slightly favors upside movement, but the 5-day volatility is as high as 14.5%, indicating significant fluctuations. Investors should manage risks carefully.
Based on the above analysis, XPeng Motors currently exhibits mixed technical signals. However, the oversold buy signal from the stochastic oscillator and the presence of key support levels provide some possibility for a short-term rebound. Given the coexistence of neutral and sell signals across various indicators, investors are advised to closely monitor the stock's performance near the support levels. If it holds steady above 66.3 yuan, a light position may be considered to capitalize on a rebound; otherwise, reducing positions to hedge risk would be advisable. Overall, short-term trading should remain flexible and primarily guided by technical levels. The summary signal from technical indicators is to buy, with a strength of 9, but decisions should be made cautiously considering market volatility and conflicting signals.
$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ After hitting a low of 67.55 yuan, it quickly rebounded, reaching a high of 73.4 yuan during trading. From the perspective of the moving average system, the stock price is currently below the 10-day moving average (75.42 yuan) but slightly above the 30-day moving average (70.34 yuan), while the 60-day moving average is at 73.76 yuan. The stock price is hovering between these key moving averages, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. Notably, the stock price failed to break through the 10-day moving average and instead fell below short-term moving averages, suggesting insufficient upward momentum. In terms of technical indicators, the stochastic oscillator shows an oversold condition, issuing a buy signal, which could indicate a potential rebound. However, multiple other oscillators such as RSI, Williams %R, and CCI are in neutral territory, reflecting cautious market sentiment. MACD signals and the bull-bear power indicator suggest buying opportunities, whereas Ichimoku Cloud and rate-of-change indicators show sell signals. This divergence indicates that the market direction remains unclear. The Bollinger Bands signal buying opportunities, implying that the stock price may be approaching the lower band and have room for a rebound. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support level is at 66.3 yuan, and the second support level is at 58.6 yuan; these levels will be key defensive points in the event of a decline. Resistance levels are at 80.2 yuan and 84.6 yuan respectively. If the stock price can break through these levels, it is expected to trigger a new upward trend. With an upside probability of 0.54, the market is slightly biased towards an upward movement, but the 5-day volatility is as high as 14.5%, indicating significant fluctuations, and investors need to...
$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ After hitting a low of 67.55 yuan, it quickly rebounded, reaching a high of 73.4 yuan during trading. From the perspective of the moving average system, the stock price is currently below the 10-day moving average (75.42 yuan) but slightly above the 30-day moving average (70.34 yuan), while the 60-day moving average is at 73.76 yuan. The stock price is hovering between these key moving averages, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. Notably, the stock price failed to break through the 10-day moving average and instead fell below short-term moving averages, suggesting insufficient upward momentum. In terms of technical indicators, the stochastic oscillator shows an oversold condition, issuing a buy signal, which could indicate a potential rebound. However, multiple other oscillators such as RSI, Williams %R, and CCI are in neutral territory, reflecting cautious market sentiment. MACD signals and the bull-bear power indicator suggest buying opportunities, whereas Ichimoku Cloud and rate-of-change indicators show sell signals. This divergence indicates that the market direction remains unclear. The Bollinger Bands signal buying opportunities, implying that the stock price may be approaching the lower band and have room for a rebound. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support level is at 66.3 yuan, and the second support level is at 58.6 yuan; these levels will be key defensive points in the event of a decline. Resistance levels are at 80.2 yuan and 84.6 yuan respectively. If the stock price can break through these levels, it is expected to trigger a new upward trend. With an upside probability of 0.54, the market is slightly biased towards an upward movement, but the 5-day volatility is as high as 14.5%, indicating significant fluctuations, and investors need to...
Following XPeng Motors’ earnings report, several institutions adjusted their ratings and target prices: Jefferies lowered its target price from 117 yuan to 103.4 yuan, Citi cut its target from 107.8 yuan to 100 yuan (a 7.2% reduction), Nomura reduced its target from 113 yuan to 94 yuan (a 16.8% cut), and Macquarie slashed its target from 93 yuan to 73 yuan (a 21.5% decrease), lowering the rating from 'Outperform' to 'Neutral.' Only Bernstein raised its target from 82 yuan to 86 yuan, maintaining a 'Market Perform' rating. Among them, Jefferies, Citi, and Nomura still retain a 'Buy' rating.
Citi noted that XPeng Motors might experience a temporary loss in the first quarter of 2026 due to the off-season sales and delayed recognition of carbon credit revenue; Nomura also mentioned the company’s increased R&D investment in physical AI areas such as Robotaxi, flying cars, and humanoid robots, thus lowering its operating profit margin forecasts for 2026-2027 by 3 percentage points each, with profitability expected to be achieved in 2027.
However, institutions generally recognize its long-term growth potential, believing that the four new models (including all-electric and extended-range versions) to be launched in 2026 will drive a sales recovery. Nomura expects deliveries to reach 535,000 units in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% from 2025 to 2028; Citi estimates that after excluding RMB 7 billion in AI R&D investment, the adjusted net profit from the automotive business could reach RMB 5.5 billion in 2026, with sufficient cash flow to support new business development.
Looking back at March 16, over the following two trading days, XPeng Motors' stock price cumulatively fell by 3.32%, while corresponding put derivatives all recorded gains: $JP#XPENGRP2805G.P (55363.HK)$ 、 $UB#XPENGRP2804D.P (55862.HK)$ They increased by 26% and 24%, respectively, $MSXPENG@EP2606A.P (22381.HK)$ 、 $UBXPENG@EP2606A.P (22317.HK)$ with gains of 10% and 9%, reflecting a high correlation between product performance and leverage levels, which fully mirrored the inverse relationship with the underlying stock movement.
$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ After hitting a low of 67.55 yuan, it quickly rebounded, reaching a high of 73.4 yuan during trading. From the perspective of the moving average system, the stock price is currently below the 10-day moving average (75.42 yuan) but slightly above the 30-day moving average (70.34 yuan), while the 60-day moving average is at 73.76 yuan. The stock price is hovering between these key moving averages, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. Notably, the stock price failed to break through the 10-day moving average and instead fell below short-term moving averages, suggesting insufficient upward momentum. In terms of technical indicators, the stochastic oscillator shows an oversold condition, issuing a buy signal, which could indicate a potential rebound. However, multiple other oscillators such as RSI, Williams %R, and CCI are in neutral territory, reflecting cautious market sentiment. MACD signals and the bull-bear power indicator suggest buying opportunities, whereas Ichimoku Cloud and rate-of-change indicators show sell signals. This divergence indicates that the market direction remains unclear. The Bollinger Bands signal buying opportunities, implying that the stock price may be approaching the lower band and have room for a rebound. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support level is at 66.3 yuan, and the second support level is at 58.6 yuan; these levels will be key defensive points in the event of a decline. Resistance levels are at 80.2 yuan and 84.6 yuan respectively. If the stock price can break through these levels, it is expected to trigger a new upward trend. With an upside probability of 0.54, the market is slightly biased towards an upward movement, but the 5-day volatility is as high as 14.5%, indicating significant fluctuations, and investors need to...
For investors optimistic about a short-term rebound, two types of products can be considered. The first is call warrants, for example, $BIXPENG@EC2610A.C (25629.HK)$ , with an exercise price of HKD 80, offering about 3x leverage and relatively low implied volatility, effectively tracking the underlying stock’s rebound; if seeking lower costs, $HUXPENG@EC2610A.C (26690.HK)$ , with an exercise price of HKD 80.05, has the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, making it highly efficient. The second type is bull contracts, $SG#XPENGRC2605A.C (62667.HK)$ and $UB#XPENGRC2607C.C (58029.HK)$ , with a stop-loss level of HKD 57.5, offering approximately 4.3x high actual leverage and very low premiums, serving as a sharp tool for betting on rebounds.
For investors who are bearish on the market outlook or wish to hedge, there are put warrants and bear contracts available. Regarding put warrants, $UBXPENG@EP2606A.P (22317.HK)$The strike price is 78.63 yuan, offering leverage of approximately 2.7 times, with an ideally set implied volatility; $MSXPENG@EP2606A.P (22381.HK)$The strike price is the same, but its premium and implied volatility are the lowest in its category, providing better downside protection. Bear certificates offer higher leverage for bearish strategies, $JP#XPENGRP2805G.P (55363.HK)$ and $UB#XPENGRP2804D.P (55862.HK)$The call prices are both set at 85 yuan, providing around 5 times actual leverage, with well-controlled premium levels, suitable for strategies anticipating resistance to a rebound followed by another downturn in stock prices.
$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ After hitting a low of 67.55 yuan, it quickly rebounded, reaching a high of 73.4 yuan during trading. From the perspective of the moving average system, the stock price is currently below the 10-day moving average (75.42 yuan) but slightly above the 30-day moving average (70.34 yuan), while the 60-day moving average is at 73.76 yuan. The stock price is hovering between these key moving averages, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. Notably, the stock price failed to break through the 10-day moving average and instead fell below short-term moving averages, suggesting insufficient upward momentum. In terms of technical indicators, the stochastic oscillator shows an oversold condition, issuing a buy signal, which could indicate a potential rebound. However, multiple other oscillators such as RSI, Williams %R, and CCI are in neutral territory, reflecting cautious market sentiment. MACD signals and the bull-bear power indicator suggest buying opportunities, whereas Ichimoku Cloud and rate-of-change indicators show sell signals. This divergence indicates that the market direction remains unclear. The Bollinger Bands signal buying opportunities, implying that the stock price may be approaching the lower band and have room for a rebound. In terms of support and resistance levels, the first support level is at 66.3 yuan, and the second support level is at 58.6 yuan; these levels will be key defensive points in the event of a decline. Resistance levels are at 80.2 yuan and 84.6 yuan respectively. If the stock price can break through these levels, it is expected to trigger a new upward trend. With an upside probability of 0.54, the market is slightly biased towards an upward movement, but the 5-day volatility is as high as 14.5%, indicating significant fluctuations, and investors need to...
XPeng Motors has invested substantial funds into developing new businesses such as Robotaxi and humanoid robots. Do you think these businesses could become core growth drivers in the future? Today's new energy vehicle sector showed clear divergence, $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ rising over 5%, $LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ 、 $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Rising more than 2-3%, XPeng Motors rebounded from its lows, $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ ）、 $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$while others showed softer performance. What do you think are the main reasons behind this divergence? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, keep following 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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