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Earnings reports from Chinese giants raise concerns! Is it a good time to buy on dips？
港股窩輪Jenny
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Alibaba's stock price has broken down, what is the probability of a rebound?

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$
Today (March 23), the stock opened with a downward gap at NT$120.8, hitting a new low since September 2025. In the short term, it has broken through all three major moving averages of 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines, forming a clear bearish pattern. The overall short-to-medium-term trend is weak.
However, after the sharp decline, oversold signals have emerged densely. Multiple indicators are currently giving conflicting signals, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears: Trend indicators MACD and ADX still maintain sell signals, confirming that the downtrend has not yet ended; however, oscillation indicators have already signaled a potential rebound — RSI dropped to 31 near the oversold zone, stochastic indicators and CCI simultaneously issued buy signals, with CCI showing a potential bottom divergence pattern, indicating that downward momentum is significantly weakening; the Williams %R indicator is also in the oversold zone, and VR trading ratio shows that selling pressure is starting to wane. With all these signals combined, the probability of short-term technical recovery is rapidly increasing.
In terms of key levels, the primary support below is at 118.6 yuan; if it breaks, it will test 112.5 yuan. The first resistance above is near 132.9 yuan at the 10-day moving average; if there’s a breakout on high volume, it could challenge the resistance near 148.9 yuan at the 60-day moving average.
Looking at changes in the derivatives market, during the March 19-20 earnings report-induced selloff where the stock fell over 10%, the outstanding call warrant volume decreased by 3.32%, indicating panic among bulls who exited to cut losses; put warrants slightly declined by 2.86%, suggesting some bears took profits but retained their bearish positions. In contrast, there was significant inflow into bull and bear certificates: Bull certificate outstanding volume surged by 5.95%, with large amounts of left-side capital entering to bet on an oversold rebound; bear certificate volume grew by 3.71% as bears continued adding leverage to bet on a prolonged downtrend, significantly increasing market divergence.
The overall assessment gives about a 55% probability of a short-term rebound at present. For professional investors, it is not advisable to blindly chase the downside now. Pay attention to signals of stabilization at the support level of HK$118.6. If accompanied by shrinking trading volume, consider attempting to position for a short-term rebound, with a stop-loss set below the HK$118.6 level. If there's a subsequent breakout above the resistance level of HK$132.9 on increased volume, a short-term strengthening can be confirmed. It should be noted that until the stock price re-stabilizes above the 10-day moving average, all rebounds should be considered technical corrections rather than trend reversals. Trading strategies should involve quick entry and exit while strictly controlling position risks.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (March 23), the stock opened with a downward gap at NT$120.8, hitting a new low since September 2025. In the short term, it has broken through all three major moving averages of 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines, forming a clear bearish pattern. The overall short-to-medium-term trend is weak. However, after the sharp decline, oversold signals have emerged densely. Multiple indicators are currently giving conflicting signals, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears: Trend indicators MACD and ADX still maintain sell signals, confirming that the downtrend has not yet ended; however, oscillation indicators have already signaled a potential rebound — RSI dropped to 31 near the oversold zone, stochastic indicators and CCI simultaneously issued buy signals, with CCI showing a potential bottom divergence pattern, indicating that downward momentum is significantly weakening; the Williams %R indicator is also in the oversold zone, and VR trading ratio shows that selling pressure is starting to wane. With all these signals combined, the probability of short-term technical recovery is rapidly increasing. In terms of key levels, the primary support below is at 118.6 yuan; if it breaks, it will test 112.5 yuan. The first resistance above is near 132.9 yuan at the 10-day moving average; if there’s a breakout on high volume, it could challenge the resistance near 148.9 yuan at the 60-day moving average. Looking at changes in the derivatives market, during the period from March 19-20 when negative earnings reports caused the stock price to fall by over 10%, the trading volume of call warrants dropped by 3.32%, indicating panic among bulls leading to stop-loss exits; put warrants slightly declined by 2.86%, showing that some bears took profits while funds remain...
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (March 23), the stock opened with a downward gap at NT$120.8, hitting a new low since September 2025. In the short term, it has broken through all three major moving averages of 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines, forming a clear bearish pattern. The overall short-to-medium-term trend is weak. However, after the sharp decline, oversold signals have emerged densely. Multiple indicators are currently giving conflicting signals, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears: Trend indicators MACD and ADX still maintain sell signals, confirming that the downtrend has not yet ended; however, oscillation indicators have already signaled a potential rebound — RSI dropped to 31 near the oversold zone, stochastic indicators and CCI simultaneously issued buy signals, with CCI showing a potential bottom divergence pattern, indicating that downward momentum is significantly weakening; the Williams %R indicator is also in the oversold zone, and VR trading ratio shows that selling pressure is starting to wane. With all these signals combined, the probability of short-term technical recovery is rapidly increasing. In terms of key levels, the primary support below is at 118.6 yuan; if it breaks, it will test 112.5 yuan. The first resistance above is near 132.9 yuan at the 10-day moving average; if there’s a breakout on high volume, it could challenge the resistance near 148.9 yuan at the 60-day moving average. Looking at changes in the derivatives market, during the period from March 19-20 when negative earnings reports caused the stock price to fall by over 10%, the trading volume of call warrants dropped by 3.32%, indicating panic among bulls leading to stop-loss exits; put warrants slightly declined by 2.86%, showing that some bears took profits while funds remain...
Looking back at March 16, in the following two trading days, Alibaba's underlying stock accumulated an increase of 2.76%, driving related derivatives to record significant gains: $UB#ALIBARC26075.C (53796.HK)$ 、 $JP#ALIBARC2608I.C (68734.HK)$ 、 $HSALIBA@EC2608F.C (26604.HK)$ During this period, both rose 18%-19%, $BIALIBA@EC2608E.C (26562.HK)$ with a gain of 13%. Overall leverage characteristics were significantly reflected, showing high correlation with the underlying stock’s movement.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (March 23), the stock opened with a downward gap at NT$120.8, hitting a new low since September 2025. In the short term, it has broken through all three major moving averages of 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines, forming a clear bearish pattern. The overall short-to-medium-term trend is weak. However, after the sharp decline, oversold signals have emerged densely. Multiple indicators are currently giving conflicting signals, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears: Trend indicators MACD and ADX still maintain sell signals, confirming that the downtrend has not yet ended; however, oscillation indicators have already signaled a potential rebound — RSI dropped to 31 near the oversold zone, stochastic indicators and CCI simultaneously issued buy signals, with CCI showing a potential bottom divergence pattern, indicating that downward momentum is significantly weakening; the Williams %R indicator is also in the oversold zone, and VR trading ratio shows that selling pressure is starting to wane. With all these signals combined, the probability of short-term technical recovery is rapidly increasing. In terms of key levels, the primary support below is at 118.6 yuan; if it breaks, it will test 112.5 yuan. The first resistance above is near 132.9 yuan at the 10-day moving average; if there’s a breakout on high volume, it could challenge the resistance near 148.9 yuan at the 60-day moving average. Looking at changes in the derivatives market, during the period from March 19-20 when negative earnings reports caused the stock price to fall by over 10%, the trading volume of call warrants dropped by 3.32%, indicating panic among bulls leading to stop-loss exits; put warrants slightly declined by 2.86%, showing that some bears took profits while funds remain...
Investors who believe the stock price has become oversold and is about to embark on a technical rebound may pay attention to call warrants and bull contracts. $HSALIBA@EC2607C.C (26739.HK)$ With a strike price of HK$137.09, its distinguishing feature lies in having the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, which effectively reduces time decay and the impact of volatility changes, making it a purer choice for betting on a rebound. For those seeking higher leverage effects, $UBALIBA@EC2607E.C (26541.HK)$ the strike price is also HK$137.09, providing relatively high leverage of 6.8 times, suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance. Investors who are bullish may also consider bull contracts, whose advantage is the absence of time decay. $UB#ALIBARC2608G.C (54591.HK)$ With a recovery price of HK$115, it provides up to 11.2 times actual leverage and low premium; $JP#ALIBARC2608I.C (68734.HK)$ and another with a recovery price of HK$115.2 stands out for having the lowest premium in the market and relatively high actual leverage of 11.5 times. Both are suitable for speculating on a stock price rebound from the support level.
Conversely, if one judges that the current rebound lacks strength and the stock price will further test the support level, then put warrants and bear contracts can be considered. $BIALIBA@EP2606A.P (20584.HK)$ The exercise price is 129.9 yuan, offering a relatively high leverage of 4.8 times, which can amplify downside gains. If you wish to control costs, $DSALIBA@EP2606A.P (20535.HK)$ The exercise price is also 129.9 yuan, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it a more conservative bearish choice. For investors who are bearish on the market outlook, bear certificates provide another high-leverage tool. $SG#ALIBARP2810U.P (60529.HK)$ The recovery price is 142.5 yuan, with the lowest premium and a relatively high actual leverage of 7 times as its selling points; and $JP#ALIBARP2809H.P (69024.HK)$ The recovery price is 144 yuan, offering the highest actual leverage of 6.4 times among similar products, with a relatively low premium, suitable for tracking potential declines after the stock price breaks below key support.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Today (March 23), the stock opened with a downward gap at NT$120.8, hitting a new low since September 2025. In the short term, it has broken through all three major moving averages of 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines, forming a clear bearish pattern. The overall short-to-medium-term trend is weak. However, after the sharp decline, oversold signals have emerged densely. Multiple indicators are currently giving conflicting signals, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears: Trend indicators MACD and ADX still maintain sell signals, confirming that the downtrend has not yet ended; however, oscillation indicators have already signaled a potential rebound — RSI dropped to 31 near the oversold zone, stochastic indicators and CCI simultaneously issued buy signals, with CCI showing a potential bottom divergence pattern, indicating that downward momentum is significantly weakening; the Williams %R indicator is also in the oversold zone, and VR trading ratio shows that selling pressure is starting to wane. With all these signals combined, the probability of short-term technical recovery is rapidly increasing. In terms of key levels, the primary support below is at 118.6 yuan; if it breaks, it will test 112.5 yuan. The first resistance above is near 132.9 yuan at the 10-day moving average; if there’s a breakout on high volume, it could challenge the resistance near 148.9 yuan at the 60-day moving average. Looking at changes in the derivatives market, during the period from March 19-20 when negative earnings reports caused the stock price to fall by over 10%, the trading volume of call warrants dropped by 3.32%, indicating panic among bulls leading to stop-loss exits; put warrants slightly declined by 2.86%, showing that some bears took profits while funds remain...
At $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ The index broke below the 3900-point level, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Falling through the bull-bear dividing line (25,108 points), amid widespread declines in technology stocks, Alibaba's current share price is already close to the key support level of 118.6 yuan. Do you think this level can hold? In the face of the current contradiction between technically oversold conditions and a downward trend, would you choose to buy the dip or continue to wait and see? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, please stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'HK Stock Warrants'!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #TencentHoldings #Alibaba #BlueChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Technology (LIST20840.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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