[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Gold International, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Sands China, Geely Auto, CATL - Post-market Analysis on March 20

Investors believe that 25,200 has relatively strong support, and they are buying bull contracts to bet on a rebound with a stop-loss at 25,000 points. Bearish investors mentioned that outflows from Northbound funds reached 20 billion yuan, making it difficult for the market to rise. They opted for bear contracts with a stop-loss at 26,500 overnight.

The Hang Seng Index currently closed at 25,277 points, with the overall trend still in a weak recovery phase after falling from its peak. The index fell from its high of 28,056 to a low of 24,906, followed by a rebound that failed to break through the upper moving average resistance and encountered multiple obstacles near 25,800, indicating continued selling pressure. The current price is still below several short- to medium-term moving averages, showing no clear signs of strengthening yet, maintaining a weak rebound structure in the short term.

From an interval structure perspective, the range between 24,900 and 25,200 has formed preliminary support, where 24,906 is the recent low, and 25,200 represents the level where short-term funds attempted to step in. However, the index's rebound has not been able to stabilize above 25,500, indicating limited buying power. On the resistance side, 25,800 is the first significant resistance level, followed by 26,300 as a dense area of moving averages. If these levels cannot be broken, the overall trend will remain volatile and biased towards weakness.

From a short-term risk-reward perspective, the current price is close to the support zone but lacks clear reversal signals, reflecting a 'supported but not strengthened' state. Betting on a rebound with support at 25,200 offers upside potential to around 25,800, implying a potential gain of about 500 points. However, if 25,000 fails, there could be another test toward 24,900 or even lower, resulting in a neutral-to-slightly-bearish structure where the risk-reward ratio isn't particularly advantageous.

Observing the callable bull/bear contract (CBBC) data, market turnover and street inventory distribution are concentrated in several key ranges. For bull contracts, a certain accumulation of street inventory has appeared around the recovery price near the 25,000 to 24,800 range, reflecting that some funds are indeed positioning themselves at current levels to bet on a rebound. However, this area also means that once the index slightly breaks below 25,000, it will easily trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations, creating downward acceleration pressure. For bear contracts, the recovery price is concentrated in the 26,000 to 26,500 range, showing clear selling pressure above the market, and also indicating that investors generally believe that the upside for a rebound is limited.

In terms of turnover distribution, funds have not shown extreme one-sided bias but instead show positions deployed on both bull and bear sides, indicating that the market still lacks consensus on short-term direction. This structure represents that trends can easily experience false breakouts or repeated fluctuations for retail investors, making it unsuitable for heavy single-sided bets.

For investors who are optimistic about the 25,200 support level and choose bull contracts with a recovery price of 25,000, their logic is technically not wrong, as entering close to the support zone can improve leverage efficiency. However, the problem lies in the recovery price being too close, meaning that once the index experiences normal volatility or even slightly falls below the support, the product would be called back, leaving very little room for error and resulting in relatively high actual risk, which makes this an aggressive or even radical deployment.

As for bearish investors using southbound capital outflows as a basis and holding bear contracts with a recovery price of 26,500 overnight, the advantage lies in the recovery price being further away from the current price, providing a certain safety margin while aligning with the current overall weak structure. However, the index is already approaching short-term support, and if a technical rebound occurs, there may be a chance of being squeezed out in the short term. Thus, although this position is more stable, it also faces rebound risks.

In summary, the market is currently near the support zone but has not turned strong. Bull contract deployments benefit from tight pricing but carry extremely high risks, while bear contract deployments follow the downtrend but need to withstand rebound volatility. For retail investors, what matters most is not simply looking at support or fund flows, but understanding the 'trigger points' represented by the CBBC street inventory distribution; otherwise, they could easily face passive stop-loss or forced recall at critical levels.

2. Zijin Gold International (02259.HK): Investors ask whether gold prices will rebound and exceed expectations, can the stock price rise back to 200 next week? Pay attention to call warrants with a strike price of 209.2 yuan.

Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) closed at 176.10, with its overall trend still in a clear downward structure. After retreating from its peak, the stock price has continued to move along a descending channel and has been constrained below multiple short- to medium-term moving averages, indicating that the trend has not yet reversed. Even though the RSI is nearing oversold levels, no signs of stabilization have emerged, suggesting that any current rebound remains merely a technical correction.

In terms of price structure, 170 serves as short-term support, while initial resistance lies at 185, followed by the 200 mark. The closing price of 176.10 remains above the support zone but is still far from major resistance, reflecting that the market does not yet possess conditions to return to strength.

Regarding short-term value betting, if using 170 as a defensive line and targeting 185 to 200, potential upside exists but requires breaking through multiple resistances; conversely, if 170 is breached, downside space will open again. Hence, the overall structure can be described as having 'rebound potential but lacking reversal conditions.'

In the warrant market, funds are mainly concentrated in call warrants, but exercise prices are generally distributed in the range above 190 to 210 yuan, showing that the market tends to deploy early based on rebound expectations. In particular, some street inventory accumulation has been recorded in the range above 200 yuan, indicating that investors broadly expect the stock price to recover to round-number levels. However, trading volume for products close to the current price has not significantly increased, showing that confidence in an immediate short-term rebound remains limited.

Under this structure, products with high exercise prices face significant time decay pressure. If the stock price does not rise quickly, the position value will continue to erode. On the contrary, at-the-money products, although having lower leverage, exhibit stronger actual price tracking ability and are more in line with short-term trading rhythms.

Investors’ belief that a rebound in gold prices and earnings-driven share price recovery to $200 is not entirely without foundation. However, from a technical perspective, conditions supporting such an increase have yet to appear. Choosing call warrants with an exercise price of $209.2 represents a significantly out-of-the-money position. Before confirming a breakout above $185 or even $200, the actual betting ratio remains low.

Overall, the market is still in a weak rebound phase. Expectations may exist, but aggressive products should not be deployed prematurely; otherwise, risks associated with time decay could be incurred before a confirmed trend emerges.

3. China Heavy Truck (03808.HK): Continuing to reach new highs, is it capable of challenging $40? Pay attention to call warrants with an exercise price of $40.

China Heavy Truck (03808.HK) closed at $37.94. After the stock previously rose to $45.78, it has seen a noticeable pullback. The trend has shifted from an uptrend to a high-level correction pattern. Recent prices have continued to decline, breaking below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with short-term averages starting to slope downward, indicating momentum has weakened. Although the overall medium-term uptrend has not been completely disrupted, the short-term structure no longer qualifies as 'breaking to new highs' but rather reflects an adjustment phase.

From a price range perspective, the area around $35 has formed recent support and is also where multiple instances of buying interest emerged during the pullback. Resistance lies at the $40 level, which is not only a psychological round-number barrier but also near the previous consolidation zone and convergence of short-term moving averages. The closing price of $37.94 sits in the middle, indicating that the stock currently lacks clear direction.

In terms of short-term betting ratios, if $35 is used as a defensive level, downside risk is approximately $2 to $3, while upside potential towards $40 is roughly $2. The risk-reward ratio is not particularly attractive. More importantly, the current trend has yet to regain upward momentum. Until the stock reestablishes itself above $40, any upward movement is more likely to be a rebound rather than a continuation of the uptrend.

In the warrant market, there are only four products available, making the structure relatively concentrated. Capital is primarily focused on call warrants, with exercise prices largely distributed in the at-the-money to near-$40 range, indicating that some capital is betting on the stock reclaiming $40. However, trading volume and street inventory have not shown significant increases, reflecting limited market participation and a lack of consensus bullishness. Products with a $40 exercise price already represent a slightly out-of-the-money structure. Under the current weak trend, their leverage effect depends on a rapid stock price recovery to materialize; otherwise, time decay will gradually erode the position's value.

From a street inventory perspective, if the stock fails to reclaim $40 in a short period, holding pressure on related call warrants will gradually increase, and insufficient capital in the market to drive a breakout will make surpassing $40 even more challenging. Conversely, products closer to the current price will demonstrate more stable price tracking capabilities, but capital has not yet concentrated in these types of products, indicating limited market confidence in a short-term rebound.

Regarding investors' belief that the stock can continue breaking to new highs and challenge $40, this judgment diverges from the current trend. The stock is not in a breakout structure but rather in an adjustment phase following a pullback from highs, with momentum yet to recover. Selecting call warrants with a $40 exercise price is a bet on a rebound. However, before confirming a return above $40, the actual betting ratio remains low, requiring investors to bear time decay risks.

Overall, the market is still digesting the previous rise, with short-term movements being range-bound consolidation rather than a one-sided uptrend. For retail investors, instead of betting on a breakout prematurely, it would be wiser to wait until the trend regains strength before making any moves, otherwise they may end up bearing unnecessary risks during volatile periods.

4. Sands China (01928.HK): Is 16 yuan the bottom? Are there lower support levels? Some investors are eyeing Calls with a strike price of 19 yuan.

Sands China (01928) closed at 16.63, with its share price continuing to move along a downward trajectory. Recently, it broke through multiple short- to medium-term moving averages and hit a new low of 16.10, reflecting that the overall trend remains weak and bearish. Although the RSI is nearing a relatively low level, no clear signs of a reversal have emerged, indicating that the downtrend is likely to continue without confirmation of a bottom yet.

From a price structure perspective, preliminary support has started to emerge around the 16-yuan mark, but for now, this only constitutes a "potential support zone" rather than a confirmed bottom. Given that the recent trend involves consecutive new lows, the market hasn't formed a clear sideways or reversal pattern. If the 16-yuan level fails to hold, further downside support will shift to an even lower range, implying the risk of additional declines in the short term. On the upside, the first resistance level is at 17.30, followed by stronger moving average pressure at 18.30, indicating limited room for a rebound.

In terms of short-term value-for-money, the current price near 16 yuan theoretically offers some rebound potential, targeting a range between 17.30 and 18 yuan. However, given the prevailing weakness in the overall trend, if the price falls below 16 yuan, downside risk will reopen. Overall, the structure suggests "a potential bounce near support but with elevated risk," lacking significant risk-reward advantages.

Warrant data shows that market capital is concentrated mainly in call warrants, with strike prices distributed primarily between 18 and 20 yuan, particularly drawing investor interest at the 19-yuan strike price. These products generally represent out-of-the-money structures, reflecting a tendency to pre-emptively position for expected rebounds. However, open interest in related ranges has already accumulated to some extent, while trading volumes remain muted, suggesting that while positions are being built, confidence isn't strong or unanimous.

Meanwhile, lower strike-price products closer to the current price haven’t shown notable trading distribution, indicating insufficient market conviction regarding an immediate short-term rebound. In this scenario, unless the stock price recovers quickly, out-of-the-money call warrants will continue to face time decay, which is unfavorable for short-term holders.

For investors focusing on whether 16 yuan represents a bottom and deploying call warrants with a 19-yuan strike price, the core issue lies in "premature expectations." The current trend has yet to confirm a bottom, and 16 yuan merely signifies potential support, not a confirmed base. Additionally, the 19-yuan strike price represents an out-of-the-money level, requiring sustained price recovery or even a breakthrough above the 17- to 18-yuan range for the warrant’s value to potentially materialize.

In summary, the market remains in a weak downtrend phase where rebounds can occur but lack the conditions for a trend reversal. For retail investors, instead of preemptively betting on a bottom, it's better to observe whether stabilizing signals appear and whether capital begins concentrating in near-the-money products. Otherwise, early deployment in out-of-the-money call warrants often exposes investors to dual risks: time decay and directional uncertainty while waiting for a rebound.

5. Geely Auto (00175.HK): Market sentiment leans bullish, with expectations that next week could see another surge; what’s the next target price? Keep an eye on bull contracts with a stop-loss price of 14.5 yuan.

Geely Auto (00175) closed at 19.52. After rebounding from the low of 14.86, the stock’s trend has shown a clear strengthening. Recently, it has been advancing with continuously higher highs and lows, gradually forming an upward structure. The price has not only moved above several short- to medium-term moving averages but also trading volume has increased in tandem, reflecting that capital is starting to actively participate, with short-term momentum showing clear improvement. However, the stock price is now approaching the previous high near 19.88, while also nearing the psychological level of 20, technically entering a short-term resistance zone.

From the perspective of the price range, the 18 level is a recent breakout point and also acts as a key short-term support. If there's a pullback to this level, the market may see buying interest. Resistance above is concentrated in the 19.88 to 20 range, which is not only a previous high but also a psychological barrier. A successful breakthrough could extend potential upward movement towards the 21 to 22 range. The current closing price of 19.52 is close to the resistance zone, indicating that the uptrend is entering a critical phase.

In terms of short-term risk-reward, if 18 is used as a defensive level and targets are set between 20 and 21, there is still some room for gains. However, since the current price is already near the resistance zone, the risks of chasing higher are increasing. If the stock fails to break through 20 and sees profit-taking, it might retest the 18 to 19 range in the short term. The risk-reward ratio is beginning to shift from favorable to neutral, or even unfavorable for chasing higher.

Warrant data shows that market funds are clearly skewed towards call warrants, with strike prices mainly concentrated in the 19 to 21 range, reflecting that investors generally expect the stock price to test levels above 20 in the short term. Products with strike prices closer to the current price have seen higher trading volumes and accumulated open interest, indicating that funds are positioning for a short-term breakout. However, some higher strike price ranges are also seeing increased open interest, suggesting the market is gradually anticipating a larger rise.

From a structural perspective, when there is significant accumulation near the at-the-money range and out-of-the-money zones begin to accumulate as well, it typically reflects bullish sentiment. However, it also implies that if the stock price fails to break through key resistance, related positions will face selling pressure, making short-term volatility or even a reversal more likely.

For investors who believe the market sentiment is bullish and are optimistic about further gains next week, this assessment aligns with the current price structure, as the trend has indeed strengthened. However, the stock price is nearing a key resistance level, and whether it can “surge” depends on its ability to effectively break through and stabilize above 20, rather than simply continuing the existing uptrend.

As for choosing bull certificates with a stop-loss level of 14.5, this level is far below the current price, providing a larger margin of safety while corresponding to the start of this round of the uptrend, offering relatively robust risk control. These products are suitable for holding with the trend, but the downside is that leverage is relatively lower. If the stock price cannot sustain the uptrend, returns will be limited.

Overall, the market is indeed in a strengthening phase but is also nearing a key resistance area. In the short term, it is transitioning from “following the trend” to “critical breakout.” For retail investors, this is no longer a time for deploying at lower levels but requires observing whether the breakout is confirmed. Otherwise, chasing higher at elevated levels could expose one to the risk of profit-taking as the uptrend slows.

6, CATL (03750.HK): Investors ask how high it can go, what is the target price? In the warrant market, some observed reduced trading volumes and chose to hold bear certificates overnight, with a stop-loss level of 740.

CATL (03750) closed at 698. After rebounding from a low of 457, the recent trend has entered an accelerated upward phase, not only continuously pushing higher highs and lows but also clearly stabilizing above multiple short- to medium-term moving averages, with the overall structure indicating a strong uptrend. It recently tested 698, very close to the psychological 700 level, reflecting a clear bullish market sentiment. However, the RSI has risen above 80, placing it in an overheated region in the short term, meaning that while the uptrend is strong, it is also beginning to accumulate pressure for high-level fluctuations.

From the price structure perspective, 650 yuan has become an important support level in this upward trend and is also the key defensive position following the recent breakout. As long as the stock price does not significantly break below this level, the strong pattern remains intact. On the resistance side, 700 yuan represents the first major psychological threshold. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above this level, the next target could extend to 720 yuan or even higher areas. In other words, at this stage, there is still potential for further upside, but the situation has gradually shifted from a smooth rise from lower levels to challenging resistance at higher levels.

Regarding short-term value betting, if using 650 yuan as a defensive base to challenge upward towards 700-720 yuan, there is theoretically still room for extension. However, since the closing price is already close to the first resistance level, entering now is no longer ideal. The biggest variable at this point is not whether the trend will weaken, but whether new funds will emerge to support the market after breaking through the high levels. If the price fails to effectively break through 700 yuan, a short-term consolidation or even a pullback is more likely to occur. Therefore, while the current value betting ratio remains positive, it is less attractive compared to the early stages of the uptrend.

In the warrant market, among 107 products, there are 74 call warrants, significantly outnumbering the 33 put warrants, with trading volume also mainly concentrated in call warrants. Call warrants traded approximately 64,230 thousand yuan, while put warrants traded about 24,809 thousand yuan, reflecting that overall capital continues to favor bullish positions. The focus of trading in call warrants primarily centers on strike prices such as 629.38 yuan, 830 yuan, 837.5 yuan, and 958 yuan. Notably, the 629.38 yuan range not only has a large number of products but also the most concentrated trading activity and accumulated significant open interest, indicating that much of the capital is positioning in call warrants with relatively sensitive intrinsic value, closely aligned with the main uptrend rather than purely speculating on far out-of-the-money options.

However, it’s worth noting that the market is also seeing substantial trading activity in high-strike-price call warrants, such as those in the 830 yuan, 837.5 yuan, and 958 yuan ranges, reflecting noticeable inflows of capital. This indicates that some investors have begun adopting a more aggressive approach to chase further gains. Such a structure usually suggests heated market sentiment, as funds are not just concentrated in at-the-money products but are starting to extend towards higher strike prices. On the other hand, although there are fewer put warrant products, certain lower strike price ranges, such as around 408.68 yuan, have seen significant accumulation of open interest, indicating that bearish positions are not entirely absent, though they currently do not dominate.

For retail investors, the reference value of this set of warrant data lies in the fact that mainstream market funds remain bullish, but the bullish approach is gradually shifting from relatively stable to more aggressive. When both at-the-money call warrants and high-strike-price call warrants are active, it often indicates that the uptrend continues, but market sentiment has also heated up. If the underlying stock fails to break through further, out-of-the-money call warrants will first face time decay pressure, and related funds may become unstable. In other words, while the warrant market currently supports the continuation of the uptrend, it also reminds retail investors that this is no longer a comfortable stage to blindly chase prices.

As for investors who believe that the stock price will continue to rise, this aligns with the current trend since there are no obvious signs of weakness on the chart, and the distribution of warrant capital also favors call warrants. For a short-term target, 700 yuan is the immediate resistance. If it can be effectively broken, the next target could test around 720 yuan, which would be a reasonable area to look forward to. However, choosing to hold bearish certificates overnight simply due to reduced trading volume represents a clear contrarian move. The underlying stock is still in an upward structure, and the warrant market has not seen enough put warrant trading to overturn the dominant bullish trend. Holding a bearish certificate overnight with a stop-loss at 740 yuan might seem safe given the distance from the closing price, but it essentially involves betting on a pullback at a high point in a strong stock, which carries amplified risks if the price surges again the next day.

Overall, CATL remains a strong stock at this stage, and the short-term direction should still be viewed as slightly bullish. However, since the closing price is already approaching key resistance levels, the value betting ratio has shifted from earlier favorable accumulation to observing whether further breakthroughs can occur. Being bullish is not without reason, but chasing prices requires closer attention to timing. As for taking a bearish stance overnight with bearish certificates at this moment, there is currently insufficient data to support such a move.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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