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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Mar 19 10:17

CATL hits a new high but encounters strong selling pressure, with clear technical divergence

The previous day (March 18th) $CATL (03750.HK)$
The stock closed at 650.5 yuan for the day, with a slight increase of 0.39%, and a trading volume of 1.365 billion yuan. Although the stock price hit a new high and is far above the MA10 (586.48 yuan), MA30 (533.68 yuan), and MA60 (513.34 yuan) key moving averages, presenting a strong bullish arrangement, the technical indicators issued the strongest warning signal.
Breakdown of CATL's core technical data:
RSI Indicator: The RSI reached 78, entering the severely overbought zone, reflecting an excessive short-term rise, and indicating that buying momentum may be starting to wane;
Technical Signal: The comprehensive technical indicator signal is sell, with a signal strength of 10 (full score), which is the strongest bearish signal among peers on that day;
Key Divergence: New highs in stock price but technical indicators are showing warnings, forming a typical 'price up, signal weak' divergence, implying growing profit-taking pressure at higher levels.
Support and Resistance Levels Reference: First short-term support at 583 yuan, second support at 518 yuan; first short-term resistance at 694 yuan, second resistance at 783 yuan. Close attention should be paid to whether the stock price holds steady at the support level and attempts to break through resistance levels.
On March 18th, the new energy sector exhibited clear characteristics of 'strong vs. weak, switching between high and low', broken down as follows:
1. Warning signals from leading stocks at high levels (2 stocks): CATL, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Both recorded gains with extremely strong technical patterns, but their RSI reached 78 and 71 respectively, simultaneously issuing 'sell' signals with strength levels 10 and 11, indicating clear short-term pullback risks.
2. Adjustment pressure on leading stocks (2 stocks): $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ 、 $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ Both experienced declines, with RSI remaining in relatively strong zones, while technical signals turned to 'sell,' reflecting adjustment pressures following the leading stocks.
3. Oversold rebound potential (2 stocks): $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ 、 $GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ Stock prices plunged, breaking through moving averages or showing significant weakness, but RSI is approaching neutrality, with technical signals turning to 'buy,' presenting a divergence between falling prices and buying signals, suggesting potential for technical recovery.
Overall sector status: Currently in a critical phase of risk repricing, as funds are withdrawing from leading stocks with excessive short-term gains and shifting towards some well-adjusted individual stocks, increasing the difficulty of trading.。
Review and selection of CATL’s warrant bullish/bearish products:
(I) Review of previous Warrant Bull/Bear performance:
A review of CATL-related warrant bullish/bearish products recommended on March 13 shows impressive overall performance given the underlying stock's 4.35% rise: $JP#CATL RC2609C.C (56569.HK)$ 、 $UB-CATL@EC2605A.C (22841.HK)$ After 2 days, both recorded a 26% increase, $SG#CATL RC2610D.C (57116.HK)$Up 13%, $BI-CATL@EC2609A.C (13229.HK)$Up 20%, demonstrating the leverage advantage of CBBCs in a strong market.
The previous day (March 18th) $CATL (03750.HK)$ Closed at 650.5 yuan for the day, slightly up 0.39% in a single day, with a trading volume of 1.365 billion yuan. Although the stock price hit another new high, significantly above the MA10 (586.48 yuan), MA30 (533.68 yuan), and MA60 (513.34 yuan) major moving averages, showing a strong bullish arrangement, the technical indicators issued the highest level of warning. Breakdown of CATL's core technical data: RSI Indicator: RSI reached 78, entering the severely overbought zone, reflecting an excessive short-term surge, suggesting that buying momentum may start to wane; Technical Signal: The comprehensive technical indicator signal is sell, with a signal strength of 10 (full score), representing the strongest bearish signal among peers on the same day; Key Divergence: The stock price hits a new high, but technical indicators are warning, forming a typical 'price rise, weakening signal' divergence, implying that profit-taking pressure at higher levels is accumulating. Support and Resistance Levels Reference: Short-term first support at 583 yuan, second support at 518 yuan; short-term first resistance at 694 yuan, second resistance at 783 yuan. Close attention should be paid to whether the stock price can stabilize at the support level and attempt to break through the resistance levels. On March 18th, the new energy sector showed distinct characteristics of 'clear strength and weakness, switching between highs and lows,' broken down as follows: 1. Warning at the leading stock's high levels (2 stocks): CATL, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Both recorded gains, with technical patterns showing...
(II) Selected CATL CBBC Products:
Based on CATL's technical pattern of 'high-level warning and increased volatility,' we have selected two high value-for-money CBBC products for investors' reference:
1、 $UB-CATL@EC2605A.C (22841.HK)$: Actual leverage 8.2, strike price 639.88 yuan. The key advantage is the lowest premium with ideal implied volatility and leverage, suitable for investors who believe the stock price will remain strong and break through resistance levels;
2、 $BI-CATL@EC2609A.C (13229.HK)$: Actual leverage 5.2, strike price 629.38 yuan, relatively higher leverage, suitable for optimistic investors who can tolerate some fluctuations.
The previous day (March 18th) $CATL (03750.HK)$ Closed at 650.5 yuan for the day, slightly up 0.39% in a single day, with a trading volume of 1.365 billion yuan. Although the stock price hit another new high, significantly above the MA10 (586.48 yuan), MA30 (533.68 yuan), and MA60 (513.34 yuan) major moving averages, showing a strong bullish arrangement, the technical indicators issued the highest level of warning. Breakdown of CATL's core technical data: RSI Indicator: RSI reached 78, entering the severely overbought zone, reflecting an excessive short-term surge, suggesting that buying momentum may start to wane; Technical Signal: The comprehensive technical indicator signal is sell, with a signal strength of 10 (full score), representing the strongest bearish signal among peers on the same day; Key Divergence: The stock price hits a new high, but technical indicators are warning, forming a typical 'price rise, weakening signal' divergence, implying that profit-taking pressure at higher levels is accumulating. Support and Resistance Levels Reference: Short-term first support at 583 yuan, second support at 518 yuan; short-term first resistance at 694 yuan, second resistance at 783 yuan. Close attention should be paid to whether the stock price can stabilize at the support level and attempt to break through the resistance levels. On March 18th, the new energy sector showed distinct characteristics of 'clear strength and weakness, switching between highs and lows,' broken down as follows: 1. Warning at the leading stock's high levels (2 stocks): CATL, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Both recorded gains, with technical patterns showing...
The previous day (March 18th) $CATL (03750.HK)$ Closed at 650.5 yuan for the day, slightly up 0.39% in a single day, with a trading volume of 1.365 billion yuan. Although the stock price hit another new high, significantly above the MA10 (586.48 yuan), MA30 (533.68 yuan), and MA60 (513.34 yuan) major moving averages, showing a strong bullish arrangement, the technical indicators issued the highest level of warning. Breakdown of CATL's core technical data: RSI Indicator: RSI reached 78, entering the severely overbought zone, reflecting an excessive short-term surge, suggesting that buying momentum may start to wane; Technical Signal: The comprehensive technical indicator signal is sell, with a signal strength of 10 (full score), representing the strongest bearish signal among peers on the same day; Key Divergence: The stock price hits a new high, but technical indicators are warning, forming a typical 'price rise, weakening signal' divergence, implying that profit-taking pressure at higher levels is accumulating. Support and Resistance Levels Reference: Short-term first support at 583 yuan, second support at 518 yuan; short-term first resistance at 694 yuan, second resistance at 783 yuan. Close attention should be paid to whether the stock price can stabilize at the support level and attempt to break through the resistance levels. On March 18th, the new energy sector showed distinct characteristics of 'clear strength and weakness, switching between highs and lows,' broken down as follows: 1. Warning at the leading stock's high levels (2 stocks): CATL, $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Both recorded gains, with technical patterns showing...
Risk Warning: The current stock price is in an overbought zone at high levels, significantly increasing volatility risk. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance, participate rationally, and strictly control position sizes.
CATL RSI 78 overbought but selling pressure emerges. Do you think the next move will be sideways consolidation or a direct pullback? A, Sideways consolidation. B, Direct pullback. C, Unlimited upside.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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