Meituan Consolidates at the RMB80 Level; Can Oversold Recovery Momentum Begin?

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ The share price is consolidating around the RMB80 level, fluctuating between RMB79.6 and RMB81.4. From a moving average perspective, Meituan has successfully broken through and stabilized above the 10-day moving average (RMB77.74), indicating that the short-term downtrend has paused. However, upward movement remains constrained by the downward-sloping 30-day line (RMB82.68) and the 60-day line (RMB91.91), with the medium to long-term trend still in a bearish alignment, creating clear layered resistance overhead. The stock price recorded an 8.5% volatility over the past five trading days, reflecting fierce contention between bulls and bears in the current range.

Multiple oscillation indicators are showing neutral signals, including the RSI (46), Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator, indicating that the stock currently lacks strong one-sided momentum and is in a state of equilibrium. However, it is worth noting that the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is signaling a buy, while the bull-bear power indicator also suggests 'severely oversold, potential bottoming out, buy,' implying that from certain momentum perspectives, the extremely oversold condition is brewing a technical rebound. On the other hand, the MACD indicator remains in sell territory, reflecting that confirmation of a reversal in the mid-term trend will still take time.

In terms of key price levels, the primary support is located at RMB76.4. If this level is breached, the price may further test stronger support at RMB74.4, an area expected to attract significant buying interest. On the upside, the first resistance level stands at RMB84.3, serving as the initial litmus test for a rebound. If this can be surpassed, the next important resistance will be at RMB88.7.

Meituan’s price action exhibits a range-bound pattern, with market观望 sentiment gradually intensifying. Observing changes in derivative positions reveals noticeable divergence in capital flow. During March 13-17, call warrant street volume continued to slowly decline, dropping from 3545.71 million shares to 3517.33 million shares, representing a cumulative decrease of about 0.8%. This reflects that short-term bullish funds, after a lackluster attempt at breaking through resistance, tend to reduce exposure and adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressively adding positions. Meanwhile, put warrant street volume initially remained flat before rising, increasing from 135.61 million shares to 146.01 million shares, marking an approximate 7.7% rise, suggesting some bearish funds have started positioning for short-term adjustment risks, betting on the difficulty for the share price to break above the RMB80 upper range boundary.

Changes in bull-bear certificate street volumes similarly highlight intensified bullish-bearish competition. Bull certificate street volumes initially rose before falling, increasing from 338.79 million shares to 349.9 million shares on March 16, then retreating to 320.33 million shares, overall declining approximately 5.4% from March 13, indicating that previously bullish-positioned funds executed profit-taking or stop-loss actions after the share price failed to rise as expected. Bear certificate street volumes exhibited volatile movements, rising from 33.63 million shares to 45.23 million shares before pulling back to 33.63 million shares, returning to the March 13 starting level, showing bearish funds remain cautious without demonstrating a one-sided increase in positioning trends.

Within two trading days after being mentioned on March 13, Meituan's underlying stock accumulated an increase of 5.33%, with the corresponding bullish derivatives recording gains across the board as the underlying stock rose, among which $UB#MTUANRC2701A.C (60462.HK)$ increased by 69%, $SG#MTUANRC2610E.C (62761.HK)$ gained 61%, $BIMTUAN@EC2609A.C (26182.HK)$ rose 23%, $HSMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26603.HK)$ and increased by 27%.

If you are optimistic about Meituan, in terms of call warrants, you may consider $BIMTUAN@EC2609A.C (26182.HK)$ , which has an exercise price of HKD 90, offering approximately 5.1 times actual leverage. Its key feature is that its implied volatility is the lowest among similar products, helping to reduce the impact of time decay, making it suitable for investors who expect Meituan to break through upper resistance levels and embark on a strong rebound. Another option is $HSMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26603.HK)$ , with an exercise price of HKD 90.05, providing about 5.6 times leverage, relatively higher leverage that amplifies potential returns.

For those bearish on the market, put warrants can be considered. $UBMTUAN@EP2612A.P (23001.HK)$ has an exercise price of HKD 77.83, offering approximately 3 times leverage, making it the highest leveraged product with the lowest implied volatility in its category, resulting in a relatively efficient structure. $BIMTUAN@EP2612A.P (15409.HK)$It is a similar choice with a strike price of 77.88 yuan, also featuring high leverage and low implied volatility, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to retest or even break below the short-term support level.

As for bull and bear certificates, their price movements typically track closely to the underlying asset and do not suffer from time decay, but they carry the risk of mandatory recall. Bullish investors may consider $UB#MTUANRC2609E.C (58188.HK)$, with a recall price of 71 yuan, providing about 6.4 times effective leverage, offering the lowest premium among similar products, higher effective leverage, and an efficient choice for rebound plays.$JP#MTUANRC2608K.C (62998.HK)$Recall price of 70 yuan, leverage around 5.9 times, with relatively lower premium. Bearish investors may look at $SG#MTUANRP2812J.P (63344.HK)$, with a recall price of 89 yuan, leverage around 7.9 times, the lowest premium and higher effective leverage; or $MS#MTUANRP2812B.P (64524.HK)$, with a recall price of 88 yuan, providing about 8.4 times high leverage, with low premium as well, suitable for bearish strategies when expecting the stock price to encounter resistance at key levels and retreat. Investors should carefully select appropriate products based on their judgment of market direction, volatility, and risk tolerance.

Meituan has been consolidating around the 80 yuan mark. Do you think the market will break upward or adjust downward? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, please continue following Jenny's daily updates on 'HK Stock Warrants'!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met, and asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated in conjunction with other information. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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