Pop Mart's upward trend is facing resistance from technical indicators, triggering a battle around the 221 yuan level

On the previous day (March 17th) $POP MART (09992.HK)$

The stock closed at 215.4 yuan, rising 3.16% in a single day with a trading volume of 2.724 billion yuan, finally seeing a smooth rebound.

We 【Hong Kong Stock Report】March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, TencentAnalysts commented on Pop Mart: Observing the recent trend, after rebounding from a low of 174.300, the stock price once surged to 274.200 but then saw significant pullbacks. In recent trading sessions, it stabilized at lower levels and showed a technical rebound, now re-entering the range between 207 and 210, though overall, it has yet to recover its medium-term losses. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$$LI NING (02331.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$

From a technical structure perspective, although the current price has regained the 5-day moving average at $207.800 and the 10-day moving average at $207.180, and is slightly above the 60-day moving average near $214, it still hasn't surpassed the 20-day moving average at $221.120 or the 30-day moving average at $228.700. This reflects a short-term rebound, but the medium-term trend has not reversed. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle line is located at $221.120, and the stock price is still trading below the middle line, indicating that the overall situation remains weak and hasn't returned to a strong zone.

In terms of support and resistance, initial support lies in the range of 207 to 210, which represents the dense area of short-term moving averages and also marks the starting point of the recent rebound. If this support fails, attention should be paid to the 200 level, followed by the area near 188, corresponding to the lower Bollinger Band and previous key support zones. On the upside, resistance is concentrated at the 221 level, which coincides with the middle Bollinger Band and the 20-day moving average, representing significant technical resistance. Beyond that, the range of 228 to 230 shows further strengthening resistance due to the concentration of medium-term moving averages.

Pop Mart’s RSI index stands at 46, close to the neutral zone, without showing signs of overbought or oversold conditions. The composite technical indicator signals “sell,” with a signal strength of 9, creating a noticeable divergence between the rising stock price and weakening technical signals. Among multiple oscillation indicators, the Stochastic Oscillator shows an “overbought, sell” signal, while other indicators such as the Williams %R and CCI remain neutral. Both MACD and Bollinger Bands indicate “sell,” reinforcing the potential for adjustments following the recent rebound.

From the perspective of short-term risk-reward, Pop Mart’s current stock price is positioned midway between the 207 support and 221 resistance levels. Upside potential is limited, while downside risks remain. There is no urgency to take action; patiently observing performance at key levels would be more prudent.

The consumer retail sector performed strongly on March 17th. Except for a slight drop of 0.52% in Jiumaojiu, most key stocks recorded gains. Notably, Pop Mart, Miniso, and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle all rose more than 3%, marking a minor breakout day for the sector.

The technical characteristics of the sector were quite consistent. The closing prices of most stocks have moved above the 10-day moving average but are still constrained by the 30-day and 60-day moving averages, indicating an early rebound or weak recovery pattern.

In terms of leading stocks,$MNSO (09896.HK)$closed at 34.32 yuan, up 3.75%, with an RSI of 40 and a comprehensive technical signal of 'Sell' (intensity 10).$CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK)$closed at 46.9 yuan, up 4.41%, with an RSI of 47 and a comprehensive technical signal of 'Sell' (intensity 9). Similar to Pop Mart, it showed a divergence between price increase and bearish signals.

Other stocks had mixed signals.$ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK)$closed at 79.65 yuan, up 1.59%, with an RSI of 47 and a comprehensive technical signal of 'Buy' (intensity 7).$JIUMAOJIU (09922.HK)$closed at 1.9 yuan, down slightly by 0.52%, with an RSI of 42 and a comprehensive technical signal of 'Buy' (intensity 9); Li Ning (02331)$XTEP INT'L (01368.HK)$both received 'Neutral' signals, reflecting significant market divergence.

Warrant Bull-Bear Review and Selection: Seize rebound opportunities while exercising cautious position control.

First, let's review the recent performance of CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts) related to Pop Mart. The CBBC products recommended on March 13th yielded substantial returns, with $HS#POMRTRC2609E.C (57271.HK)$ a two-day increase of 32%, $CIPOMRT@EC2607B.C (24801.HK)$ a 23% increase, $UB#POMRTRC2609D.C (57407.HK)$ Up 29%, $HSPOMRT@EC2607A.C (24834.HK)$ and another rising by 19%, perfectly following Pop Mart’s rebound rhythm, providing investors with insights for volatility trading.

Based on Pop Mart’s price movement and technical signals, we have selected two CBBC products for your reference:

1、 $JPPOMRT@EC2605A.C (23387.HK)$ Leverage: 6.7x, strike price: 240.12, lowest premium and implied volatility; suitable for investors optimistic about Pop Mart breaking through short-term resistance.

2、 $UB#POMRTRP2812K.P (67830.HK)$ Leverage: 7.6x, recovery price: 240, lowest premium, higher actual leverage; suitable for investors who believe Pop Mart may retreat to test support levels in the short term.

Risk Warning: CBBCs are derivatives with high volatility. Investors should consider their risk tolerance, proceed cautiously, control position sizes, and avoid over-pursuing leveraged gains.

Pop Mart is trapped in a 'technical resistance' dilemma. What do you think will be the outcome of the battle at HK$221?

A. Bulls win, strong breakout targeting HK$230.

B. Bears win, encountering resistance and retreating to test HK$207.

C. Stalemate continues, with the price still hovering around $215.

Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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