Has the rebound opportunity arrived? Hong Kong stocks welcome a strong start in May
The Hang Seng Index has stabilized above the 10-day moving average, with the 26,000 level becoming a key short-term resistance.
On the previous day (March 17th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The index closed at 25,868.54 points, up slightly by 0.13% for the day, with a trading volume of 268.259 billion Hong Kong dollars.
In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast], we also commented on the Hang Seng Index: Observing recent trading sessions, after rebounding from the 24,900 level, the index has gradually stabilized in the short term and moved back above the 5-day moving average at 25,756 and the 10-day moving average at 25,648, reflecting that short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, the index has not yet broken through the 20-day moving average at 26,072, as well as a cluster of medium-term moving averages near 26,300, indicating that the overall trend is still part of a rebound process rather than a confirmed trend reversal.March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$$LI NING (02331.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$
![On the previous day (March 17th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,868.54 points, up slightly by 0.13% for the day, with a trading volume of 268.259 billion Hong Kong dollars. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast], we also commented on the Hang Seng Index: Observing recent trading sessions, after rebounding from the 24,900 level, the index has gradually stabilized in the short term and moved back above the 5-day moving average at 25,756 and the 10-day moving average at 25,648, reflecting that short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, the index has not yet broken through the 20-day moving average at 26,072, as well as a cluster of medium-term moving averages near 26,300, indicating that the overall trend is still part of a rebound process rather than a confirmed trend reversal.[Share Link: March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent] $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$$LI NING (02331.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the range between 26,000 and 26,300 clearly forms a short-term resistance zone, with 26,072 being the Bollinger Bands midline while overlapping with the 20-day line, making it technically significant; further up, the 26,300 to 26,380 range represents an area where multiple medium-term moving averages converge, adding even stronger resistance. If the index fails to effectively break through and stabilize above this region, the momentum of the rebound may gradually weaken. In terms of support, the short-term focus can first be placed between 25,600 and 25,6...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260318/web-1773795276751-YrvjrNwbIo.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
From a technical perspective, the range between 26,000 and 26,300 clearly forms a short-term resistance zone, with 26,072 being the Bollinger Bands midline while overlapping with the 20-day line, making it technically significant; further up, the 26,300 to 26,380 range represents an area where multiple medium-term moving averages converge, adding even stronger resistance. If the index fails to effectively break through and stabilize above this region, the momentum of the rebound may gradually weaken.
On the support side, the short-term focus can first be placed on the 25,600 to 25,650 region, which is close to the 10-day line and the bottom of the recent consolidation range, acting as the first line of defense; if this level is breached, attention should be paid to the 25,000 to 25,028 zone, which is near the lower Bollinger Band and also close to the previous low of 24,906, making it an important medium- to short-term support level.
Detailed analysis of the Hang Seng Index's core technical indicators: The RSI index stands at 49, within the neutral range, without showing overbought or oversold signals, reflecting that market forces are relatively balanced; the MACD signal indicates 'Sell' with an intensity of 8, forming a slight divergence with the index’s minor uptick. Combined with the slight increase in MACD histogram volume, this shows that short-term rebound momentum remains relatively weak. Additionally, multiple oscillation indicators for the Hang Seng Index show neutrality, with the Williams %R, Stochastic Oscillator, and CCI all giving neutral signals, further confirming the short-term consolidation pattern.
![On the previous day (March 17th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,868.54 points, up slightly by 0.13% for the day, with a trading volume of 268.259 billion Hong Kong dollars. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast], we also commented on the Hang Seng Index: Observing recent trading sessions, after rebounding from the 24,900 level, the index has gradually stabilized in the short term and moved back above the 5-day moving average at 25,756 and the 10-day moving average at 25,648, reflecting that short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, the index has not yet broken through the 20-day moving average at 26,072, as well as a cluster of medium-term moving averages near 26,300, indicating that the overall trend is still part of a rebound process rather than a confirmed trend reversal.[Share Link: March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent] $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$$LI NING (02331.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the range between 26,000 and 26,300 clearly forms a short-term resistance zone, with 26,072 being the Bollinger Bands midline while overlapping with the 20-day line, making it technically significant; further up, the 26,300 to 26,380 range represents an area where multiple medium-term moving averages converge, adding even stronger resistance. If the index fails to effectively break through and stabilize above this region, the momentum of the rebound may gradually weaken. In terms of support, the short-term focus can first be placed between 25,600 and 25,6...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260318/web-1773795261684-D39cY4xByR.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
The performance of key blue chips on the previous day (March 17) varied, with technical signals showing significant divergence and no unified trend forming — a prominent feature in the current market.
On the bullish side, Tencent (00700) closed at HKD 550.0, down 1.52%, but its closing price was above the MA10 and MA30 lines. The RSI stood at 56, in a moderately strong range, with technical signals suggesting 'Buy'. $HKEX (00388.HK)$ It closed at HKD 404.4, slightly down by 0.44%, constrained by all major moving averages, but technical signals indicated 'Buy' with a strength of 10, representing a contrarian trading signal. $PING AN (02318.HK)$ It closed at HKD 63.1, up 1.37%, with technical signals indicating 'Strong Buy,' reflecting stronger short-term bullish sentiment.
On the bearish side, $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ It closed at HKD 35.36, marginally up by 0.45%, holding steady above short- and medium-term moving averages. The RSI was 58, leaning towards strength, but technical signals suggested 'Strong Sell.' $CCB (00939.HK)$ It closed at HKD 8.11, up 0.75%, breaking above all major moving averages. With an RSI of 59, leaning strong, it also received a 'Strong Sell' signal for two consecutive days as a warning. $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ It closed at HKD 80.0, slightly down by 0.12%, with technical signals also showing 'Strong Sell,' indicating visible short-term downward pressure.
Risk Warning: This increased divergence between bulls and bears will raise operational difficulty. Investors are advised to focus more on the technical patterns of their individual holdings and avoid blindly following market sentiment.
Review and Selection of Warrants and Bull/Bear Certificates: Seize volatility opportunities while being mindful of risks.
First, let's review the recent performance of the warrants and bull/bear products. The Hang Seng Index-related products recommended on March 11 performed remarkably, with some showing $UB#HSI RP2811Y.P (69176.HK)$ a two-day increase of 32%, $UB#HSI RP2804W.P (66521.HK)$ an increase of 30%, $BI-HSI @EP2605B.P (23127.HK)$ 、 $UB-HSI @EP2605A.P (23089.HK)$ and gains of 19% and 18%, respectively, following the volatility rhythm of the Hang Seng Index at the time, providing investors with a reference for volatility trading.
![On the previous day (March 17th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,868.54 points, up slightly by 0.13% for the day, with a trading volume of 268.259 billion Hong Kong dollars. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast], we also commented on the Hang Seng Index: Observing recent trading sessions, after rebounding from the 24,900 level, the index has gradually stabilized in the short term and moved back above the 5-day moving average at 25,756 and the 10-day moving average at 25,648, reflecting that short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, the index has not yet broken through the 20-day moving average at 26,072, as well as a cluster of medium-term moving averages near 26,300, indicating that the overall trend is still part of a rebound process rather than a confirmed trend reversal.[Share Link: March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent] $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$$LI NING (02331.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the range between 26,000 and 26,300 clearly forms a short-term resistance zone, with 26,072 being the Bollinger Bands midline while overlapping with the 20-day line, making it technically significant; further up, the 26,300 to 26,380 range represents an area where multiple medium-term moving averages converge, adding even stronger resistance. If the index fails to effectively break through and stabilize above this region, the momentum of the rebound may gradually weaken. In terms of support, the short-term focus can first be placed between 25,600 and 25,6...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260318/web-1773795405679-arqM50sru6.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Combining the trend of the Hang Seng Index with technical signals, we have selected two warrant products for your reference:
1、 $UB-HSI @EC2605A.C (23090.HK)$ Leverage of 15.3, strike price 26733; its leverage and implied volatility are relatively ideal, suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term breakout above resistance in the Hang Seng Index.
2、 $BP-HSI @EP2605A.P (23944.HK)$ Leverage of 13.1, strike price 25000; it has the lowest implied volatility and higher leverage, suitable for investors who believe the Hang Seng Index may pull back to test support levels in the short term.
![On the previous day (March 17th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,868.54 points, up slightly by 0.13% for the day, with a trading volume of 268.259 billion Hong Kong dollars. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast], we also commented on the Hang Seng Index: Observing recent trading sessions, after rebounding from the 24,900 level, the index has gradually stabilized in the short term and moved back above the 5-day moving average at 25,756 and the 10-day moving average at 25,648, reflecting that short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, the index has not yet broken through the 20-day moving average at 26,072, as well as a cluster of medium-term moving averages near 26,300, indicating that the overall trend is still part of a rebound process rather than a confirmed trend reversal.[Share Link: March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent] $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$$LI NING (02331.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the range between 26,000 and 26,300 clearly forms a short-term resistance zone, with 26,072 being the Bollinger Bands midline while overlapping with the 20-day line, making it technically significant; further up, the 26,300 to 26,380 range represents an area where multiple medium-term moving averages converge, adding even stronger resistance. If the index fails to effectively break through and stabilize above this region, the momentum of the rebound may gradually weaken. In terms of support, the short-term focus can first be placed between 25,600 and 25,6...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260318/web-1773795395721-ETlz4SwJOB.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
![On the previous day (March 17th) $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The index closed at 25,868.54 points, up slightly by 0.13% for the day, with a trading volume of 268.259 billion Hong Kong dollars. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast], we also commented on the Hang Seng Index: Observing recent trading sessions, after rebounding from the 24,900 level, the index has gradually stabilized in the short term and moved back above the 5-day moving average at 25,756 and the 10-day moving average at 25,648, reflecting that short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, the index has not yet broken through the 20-day moving average at 26,072, as well as a cluster of medium-term moving averages near 26,300, indicating that the overall trend is still part of a rebound process rather than a confirmed trend reversal.[Share Link: March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent] $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$$LI NING (02331.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ From a technical perspective, the range between 26,000 and 26,300 clearly forms a short-term resistance zone, with 26,072 being the Bollinger Bands midline while overlapping with the 20-day line, making it technically significant; further up, the 26,300 to 26,380 range represents an area where multiple medium-term moving averages converge, adding even stronger resistance. If the index fails to effectively break through and stabilize above this region, the momentum of the rebound may gradually weaken. In terms of support, the short-term focus can first be placed between 25,600 and 25,6...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260318/web-1773795395725-WJDLaqqLWb.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Friendly reminder: Warrants are derivatives with significant volatility. Investors should align with their risk tolerance, proceed cautiously, and control their positions.
How long do you think the contention around the 26,000 level for the Hang Seng Index will last?
A. Results within 1-2 days.
B. The market still needs to fluctuate for another 3-5 days.
C. It may remain range-bound for over a week.
Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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