Has the rebound opportunity arrived? Hong Kong stocks welcome a strong start in May

港股窩輪Jenny

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March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent

March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma 1. Hang Seng Index

1. Hang Seng Index

Closed at 25,868.54 on March 17. Observing the recent trading trend, after rebounding from the 24,900 level, the index has gradually stabilized in the short term and moved back above the 5-day line at 25,756 and the 10-day line at 25,648, indicating some easing of short-term selling pressure. However, the index has yet to break through the 20-day line at 26,072 and the dense area of multiple medium-term moving averages near 26,300, meaning that overall it remains in a rebound process rather than confirming a trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, the range between 26,000 and 26,300 clearly forms a short-term resistance zone, with 26,072 being the Bollinger Bands midline while overlapping with the 20-day line, making it technically significant; further up, the 26,300 to 26,380 range represents an area where multiple medium-term moving averages converge, adding even stronger resistance. If the index fails to effectively break through and stabilize above this region, the momentum of the rebound may gradually weaken.

On the support side, the short-term focus can be on the 25,600 to 25,650 region, which is close to both the 10-day moving average and the bottom of the recent consolidation range, forming the first line of defense. If it breaks below this level, attention should be paid to the 25,000 to 25,028 zone, where the lower Bollinger Band is located, near the previous low of 24,906, making it a more significant short- to medium-term support.

From the perspective of short-term reward-to-risk ratio, the index is currently near the resistance zone, with limited upside potential but still some downside risk. Therefore, chasing above 25,800 to 26,000 does not offer an attractive risk-reward ratio. Conversely, if it pulls back to around 25,600 without breaking significantly lower, coupled with signs of stabilization, short-term bets on a rebound would have a relatively reasonable risk-return profile.

Looking at the distribution of market funds, bullish warrant trading is mainly concentrated around the strike prices of 25,600 and 25,700, reflecting that bullish investors prefer products closer to current levels for short-term rebound continuation. Meanwhile, bearish warrant trading is clearly concentrated in the 26,300 to 26,500 region, indicating early positioning by funds expecting resistance ahead. Overall, neither bullish nor bearish funds show a one-sided direction; instead, they are positioned around the 25,600 to 26,300 range, suggesting market divergence on the short-term outlook.

From the perspective of retail short-term trading insights, the current market is not in a one-way trend but is clearly range-bound. At-the-money bull warrants, while offering high leverage and quick reactions, have limited distance between strike price and current levels, meaning risks amplify rapidly with any pullback. Additionally, the concentration of bearish warrant deployments between 26,300 and 26,500 indicates expectations that this area may not break easily. Thus, entry points should be prioritized over mere directional judgment.

Regarding the investor view, 'bullish investors holding bull warrants with a strike price of 25,000 to bet on a rebound,' this strategy is relatively defensive. The 25,000 level corresponds to a key support area, with over 800 points of buffer from current levels, making it less likely to be triggered by short-term volatility. If the index consolidates above 25,600, these further-out bull warrants still hold value. However, note that most bullish positions are concentrated closer to the 25,600 to 25,700 range, representing short-term rebound plays rather than mid-range strategies.

As for 'bearish investors holding bear warrants with a strike price of 26,382, believing a drop below 25,600 to 25,700 is needed for a rebound,' the first part aligns well with market structure since 26,300 to 26,500 is indeed a concentrated bearish zone and technical resistance area, justifying such positioning. However, the latter part needs adjustment: 25,600 to 25,700 is closer to the support zone, not necessarily requiring a breakdown for a rebound. A more reasonable interpretation is that if the index faces resistance near 26,000 and retreats, 25,600 will become the key support. Holding above it suggests ongoing consolidation; breaking below increases chances of retesting 25,000.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index remains in a rebound phase but has yet to strengthen. Clear resistance lies between 26,000 and 26,300, while 25,600 offers initial support. For short-term strategies, positions near support have better reward-to-risk ratios, whereas chasing near resistance is not advisable. Retail investors should focus on range dynamics, watch out for the forced unwinding risks of closely priced products, and avoid excessive leverage when direction is unclear. $BI#HSI RC2807E.C (68195.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2807I.C (68351.HK)$$UB-HSI @EC2605A.C (23090.HK)$$HS-HSI @EC2605B.C (23723.HK)$

1. Geely Auto (00175.HK)

On March 17, Geely closed at 18.640. Observing recent trading patterns, the stock has seen a notable uptrend from its low of 14.960, breaking through multiple moving averages. It now stands fully above the 5-day, 10-day, and medium-term moving averages, with technical indicators shifting from weak to strong, showing clear momentum driven by short-term capital inflows.

However, at this stage, signs of overheating have begun to emerge. The stock briefly reached a high of 19.140, breaching the upper Bollinger Band at 18.515, while the RSI rose above 80, indicating significant overbought conditions. This typically means the rally has been too rapid, and a subsequent consolidation or technical pullback is more likely than a continued straight-line ascent.

In terms of support and resistance, the first key resistance to watch is the range between 19.000 and 19.140, which represents recent highs and also acts as a psychological barrier. A decisive breakout and sustained hold above this level would pave the way for further advances towards the 20-dollar mark. Conversely, failure to break through could result in short-term consolidation around current levels. On the downside, initial support lies at 17.842, corresponding to the 5-day moving average, followed by the 17.48 to 17.55 range, which contains several mid-term moving averages. Below that, 16.64 serves as the Bollinger Band midline, representing a structurally significant support.

From the perspective of short-term risk-reward ratio, the stock price is now approaching the resistance area while momentum indicators are showing overbought conditions. Entering above 18.6 carries less attractive risk-reward potential. Instead, a pullback to the 17.8 to 17.5 zone with signs of stabilization would present a more reasonable opportunity for short-term trades.

Looking at market positioning, trading volume in call warrants has been concentrated in near-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money ranges, indicating capital chasing short-term upward momentum. Meanwhile, put warrant activity is gradually increasing above 18.5, suggesting some investors are preparing for profit-taking at higher levels. The overall distribution is shifting from a previously one-sided bullish view to a more balanced outlook with growing divergence between bulls and bears.

From the perspective of retail short-term trading, the most important thing now is to avoid entering high-leverage products after consecutive sharp rises. While near-the-money instruments offer high elasticity, once the stock enters a sideways or corrective phase, time decay and price retracement will occur simultaneously, often underestimating actual risks. Relatively speaking, waiting for a pullback to the support zone before making a move, or following up only after a confirmed breakout, aligns better with risk-reward principles.

Regarding investor queries like “After several days of strong gains, many are taking profits—can it still reach 20 dollars?” the key lies in whether the range of 19.000 to 19.140 can be decisively broken. If the stock consolidates and then breaks through this zone with increased volume, reaching 20 dollars as an integer target is possible. However, if it repeatedly fails at this level, the stock is more likely to digest recent gains through a correction or consolidation before determining its medium-term direction. Therefore, 20 dollars is not a guaranteed short-term target but requires a 'confirmed breakout' to become viable.

As for “Some investors holding bull certificates with a stop-loss price of 14.9, betting on positive earnings results on Wednesday,” this strategy represents a typical event-driven approach. Structurally, 14.9 is close to the previous low of 14.960, offering about a 3.7% buffer, making it a relatively defensive leverage play compared to other near-the-money bull certificates. However, two points should be noted: First, volatility tends to increase significantly around earnings releases; even if the direction is correct, short-term fluctuations may still arise. Second, if earnings disappoint and the stock falls below 17.5 or accelerates downward, the price of the bull certificate will come under immediate pressure. Thus, the success of this strategy depends not only on directional judgment but also on effective time and risk management.

Overall, Geely Auto is currently in a high-price range after a strong uptrend. The trend remains upward, but short-term overheating is evident. Key resistance lies at 19.0 to 19.14, with initial support at 17.8. Until resistance is decisively broken, the market is more inclined toward consolidation at these elevated levels. For short-term operations, avoid chasing highs and prioritize seeking value opportunities during pullbacks, while strictly controlling position risks. $UB#GEELYRC2707B.C (64724.HK)$$BIGEELY@EC2609A.C (25051.HK)$$HSGEELY@EC2609A.C (25084.HK)$

1. JD.com Logistics (02618.HK)

On March 17, JD.com Logistics closed at 14.000. Observing recent trading patterns, the stock has rebounded significantly from the low of 10.200 and consecutively broken through multiple moving averages. It now stands fully above the 5-day moving average at 13.802 and the 10-day moving average at 12.848, as well as notably above the 20-day moving average at 12.004 and other mid-term averages, indicating a strengthening short-term trend driven by noticeable market capital inflows.

However, with the rally having reached this stage, it is gradually entering a high-price range. The stock hit a high of 14.250 and approached the upper Bollinger Band at 14.544, while the RSI rose above 70, signaling that the short-term trend has entered overbought territory. This structure typically indicates that the rally has already covered substantial ground, with a higher likelihood of consolidation rather than continuous upward movement.

In terms of support and resistance, the immediate resistance above can be seen at 14.25, followed by 14.50, which is the upper Bollinger Band position. If it fails to break through effectively, there's a higher chance of fluctuations near the highs in the short term. Below, initial support can be found at 13.80, which is the 5-day moving average, followed by 12.85, the 10-day moving average. If that level is breached, then attention should be paid to the 12.00 level, which is the Bollinger midline and also an important structural support for this upward trend.

Based on the short-term risk-reward ratio, the current price around 14 yuan is already close to short-term resistance, and momentum indicators are in overbought territory. The risk-reward of chasing at this level is not ideal. Instead, if the stock price pulls back to around 13.8 and finds support, deploying in the short term would offer a more reasonable risk-reward ratio.

Looking at market capital deployment, trading in call warrants is mainly concentrated in at-the-money to slightly out-of-the-money ranges, reflecting that funds tend to follow the recent uptrend for short-term positioning. However, some put warrants have started to gradually increase at higher levels, showing that the market is guarding against the risk of a short-term pullback. The overall structure has shifted from one-sided bullishness to a divergence between bulls and bears.

From the perspective of short-term retail investors, the most common pitfall at this stage is chasing highly leveraged call warrants after a continuous rise, especially those with larger out-of-the-money premiums. While these products may seem attractive due to their leverage, they require significant stock price movements. Once the stock enters a consolidation or correction phase, not only will expected gains be hard to realize, but time decay will also continue to erode their prices.

Regarding the investor question, 'Is it worth entering again at 12 yuan?' From a technical standpoint, 12 yuan corresponds to the area near the 20-day moving average and the Bollinger midline, which is a key support zone for this upward trend. If the stock price retraces to this area and shows clear support, such as stopping the decline or seeing supportive trading volume, the risk-reward ratio at this level would be relatively high, making it an ideal range for medium- to short-term redeployment. However, it should be noted that the current price is far from 12 yuan, and simply waiting for a pullback to this level also carries the risk that the market might not present such an opportunity.

As for the 'call warrant with a strike price of 16.49 yuan,' this is clearly an out-of-the-money product. At the current price of 14 yuan, the strike price is still about 17% away, meaning the stock price needs further and sustained increases for this product to perform well. Such a strategy is more suitable for use at the beginning of an uptrend or after a breakout, rather than chasing it when nearing resistance levels. If the stock price fails to break through the 14.25 to 14.50 resistance zone and sustain the uptrend, these out-of-the-money call warrants will be more susceptible to time decay, offering unattractive short-term risk-reward.

Overall, JD.com Logistics is currently in a high-price range after a strong rebound, with a short-term upward trend but signs of overheated momentum. Above, 14.25 to 14.50 is the key resistance, while below, 13.80 is the first support. Before breaking through resistance, the market tends to consolidate. For short-term operations, avoid chasing at high levels and prioritize deploying near support zones during pullbacks. Carefully select product terms to reduce the impact of time decay.

1. Li Ning (02331.HK)

On March 17, Li Ning closed at 20.260. Observing the recent trend, the stock price fell from the previous high of 23.420 and later found support near 18.8. In recent trading sessions, a technical rebound occurred, and the price re-established itself above the 20-yuan mark. However, it has yet to reclaim the region above 21 yuan, and the overall structure remains a rebound after a pullback rather than a confirmed resumption of the uptrend.

In terms of the moving average structure, the stock price is currently above the 5-day moving average at 19.696 and the 10-day moving average at 20.004 but remains constrained by the 20-day moving average at 21.000 and the 30-day moving average at 21.041. This indicates that while there is short-term stabilization, the intermediate trend has yet to strengthen. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the midline is at 21.000, and the stock price is still running below the midline, indicating that the overall trend remains weak and has not returned to a strong zone.

In terms of support and resistance, the immediate support below can be seen at the 20.000 level, which is also near the 10-day moving average, acting as the first line of short-term support. If it breaks below this, attention should be paid to the 18.80 to 18.85 range, where the lower Bollinger Band and medium-term moving averages converge, representing a key support level. The main resistance above is concentrated in the 21.000 to 21.200 region, where the middle Bollinger Band and multiple moving averages converge, indicating significant technical pressure. A decisive breakout and stabilization above this level would pave the way for further movement towards the previous high at 23.420.

From the perspective of short-term risk-reward ratio, the current stock price is positioned midway between support and resistance. It remains capped by resistance around 21 yuan while finding support near 20 yuan, making direct entry at the current price less attractive in terms of risk-reward. A better strategy would involve observing buying interest closer to 20 yuan before taking action or waiting for a confirmed breakout above 21 yuan to follow the upward momentum.

Looking at market capital distribution, call warrants are concentrated in near-the-money to slightly out-of-the-money ranges, reflecting some investors’ attempts to capitalize on a rebound opportunity. Meanwhile, put warrants show noticeable positioning above the 21-yuan mark, suggesting expectations of resistance at higher levels. Overall, the capital distribution reflects a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, consistent with the current sideways trading pattern.

From the perspective of short-term retail investors, the most critical mistake to avoid now is mistaking a “rebound” for a “trend reversal.” Until the stock breaks through 21 yuan, a clear uptrend has not yet formed. Prematurely entering high-leverage call warrants could result in both time decay and price retracement if the stock encounters resistance or moves sideways, making risks harder to manage.

Regarding investors' question, "The pattern looks good; what’s the next price target?", this judgment needs to consider two scenarios. If the stock can decisively break and stabilize above the 21.000–21.200 region, it signifies re-entering above the middle Bollinger Band while reclaiming multiple medium-term moving averages. In this case, the next reasonable technical target could extend to 23.0–23.4, near the previous high. Sustained trading volume after the breakout would be necessary to challenge even higher levels.

However, if the stock continues to face resistance near 21 yuan, the so-called "good pattern" observed may simply be a technical rebound following a pullback, not signaling a new upward trend. Under such circumstances, the stock is more likely to fluctuate within the 20–21 range or even test support at 18.8. Therefore, any price target should not be pre-assumed but conditioned on whether the stock can break through 21 yuan.

Overall, Li Ning is currently at a pivotal juncture, with support at 20 yuan below and clear resistance at 21 yuan above. Before confirming a breakout, short-term strategies should focus on range trading rather than chasing one-sided gains. For retail investors, instead of asking about price targets, it’s more prudent to observe whether the key resistance level can be decisively broken, as this will determine the next potential upside move.

1. Pop Mart (09992.HK)

On March 17, Pop Mart closed at 215.400. Observing recent movements, the stock rebounded from a low of 174.300 to a high of 274.200 before experiencing a notable correction. In recent sessions, it has stabilized and shown technical rebound signs, now re-entering the 207–210 range. However, it has yet to fully recover its medium-term losses.

From a technical perspective, although the stock has regained the 5-day moving average at 207.800 and the 10-day moving average at 207.180, and is slightly above the 60-day moving average near 214, it has yet to surpass the 20-day moving average at 221.120 and the 30-day moving average at 228.700. This suggests that the current upward movement is a short-term rebound, with the medium-term trend yet to reverse. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is located at 221.120, and the stock is still trading below it, indicating an overall weaker zone and not yet returning to a strong region.

In terms of support and resistance, the lower support can first be seen in the 207 to 210 range, which is a position with a dense concentration of short-term moving averages and also the starting point of the recent rebound. If this support fails, attention should be paid to the 200 level, followed by the area near 188, which corresponds to the lower Bollinger Band and a key previous support zone. The upper resistance is concentrated at the 221 level, which not only represents the middle Bollinger Band but also overlaps with the 20-day moving average, making it a significant technical resistance. Beyond that, the 228 to 230 range, being a dense area for medium-term moving averages, presents even stronger resistance.

From the perspective of short-term risk-reward ratio, the current stock price is in the middle range between the 207 support and the 221 resistance. The upward potential is limited while there is still room for a pullback below, so directly buying at the current price does not offer an attractive risk-reward ratio. A better strategy would be to observe the support around 207 for potential entry or wait for a valid breakout above 221 before taking a directional position.

Looking further into market capital deployment, the trading volume of call warrants was previously concentrated in the at-the-money to slightly out-of-the-money range, reflecting active participation in the upward trend. However, there has been some profit-taking at higher levels recently, with some bullish warrants being cashed out. At the same time, put warrants are gradually seeing deployment above the 220 level, indicating that the market anticipates resistance ahead. Overall capital distribution, which was previously skewed towards bullishness, is now shifting to reflect both bullish and bearish views.

From the perspective of short-term retail trading, the most important thing to note right now is that 'a rebound does not equal a trend reversal.' Although the stock price has rebounded from its lows, until it retakes 221, it has not returned to a strong uptrend. Using high-leverage products during a rebound could lead to simultaneous time decay and price retracement if the stock meets resistance or moves sideways, making risk harder to control.

Regarding investors' question about whether 'the upward trajectory has opened up and whether 221 is a major resistance,' from the current structure, 221 indeed represents a key resistance, not just ordinary resistance. This is because the level corresponds to both the middle Bollinger Band and the 20-day moving average, acting as a watershed between weakness and strength. Only when the stock price effectively breaks through and stabilizes above 221 can it be considered re-entering an upward trajectory; otherwise, it should still be viewed as a rebound after a correction.

As for the 'warrants market seeing early profit-taking on bullish certificates with a stop-loss at 175,' this reflects that early-positioned funds have started locking in profits. The 175 stop-loss corresponds to the previous low area, making it a relatively defensive bullish certificate. The fact that some are choosing to exit after the rebound shows that part of the market remains cautious about further short-term upside. In other words, the market is not unanimously optimistic about breaking through resistance and is instead beginning to consider the risk of a pullback due to resistance.

Overall, Pop Mart is currently in a rebound phase following a correction, with 221 as a clear key resistance above and 207 as short-term support below. Until 221 is broken through, the market is more inclined towards range-bound movement rather than a one-sided uptrend. For short-term retail investors, instead of assuming that the uptrend has resumed, it’s better to first observe whether resistance can be effectively broken and prioritize deploying near the support zone to enhance overall risk-reward ratio and risk management capabilities.

1. Tencent (00700.HK)

On March 17, Tencent closed at 550.000. Observing the recent trading trend, the stock price rebounded from around the 500 level and gradually moved back above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, showing improvement in the short-term trend. However, the upper intermediate moving average zone has yet to be reclaimed, meaning the overall trend remains a technical rebound after a decline rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Technically, the current price has stabilized above the 10-day moving average at 535 and the 20-day moving average at 528. However, noticeable resistance begins to appear in the 560 to 576 range, with 560 corresponding to the upper Bollinger Band and also the extension pressure area of the recent rebound. Further above, the 60-day moving average at 576 and higher intermediate moving averages present layered resistance. Until 560 is effectively broken, the rebound structure will not have fully strengthened.

On the support side, the short-term focus can first be on 535, which is the 10-day line position, followed by 528, where the Bollinger Band midline and the 20-day line overlap—a key support level; if it breaks below this, then attention should be paid to the 500 integer level. Overall, 535 to 560 forms the main short-term trading range.

From the perspective of short-term value betting ratio, the current stock price is in the upper-middle part of the range, close to resistance above and with room for a pullback below. Therefore, the risk-reward of entering at the current price is not particularly attractive. A better strategy would be to consider buying near the support zone of 535 to 528 or wait for a breakout above 560 before following the trend.

Looking further at market fund deployment, the trading volume of call warrants is mainly concentrated in the at-the-money range, reflecting that some funds are attempting to capture a continuation of the short-term rebound; however, put warrant positions are also gradually being seen above the 560 level, indicating market consensus on the resistance above. Overall, funds are not showing one-sided bullishness but are instead deploying around the 535 to 560 range, reflecting continued divergence ahead of earnings.

From the short-term retail investor’s perspective, pre-earnings movements are often more volatile, and the market tends to exhibit “unclear direction but leverage first” scenarios. If at-the-money products are used in the middle of the range, any failure of the stock price to maintain direction and instead turn into consolidation will lead to both time decay and price retracement risks, making risk control more difficult.

Regarding investors' question of whether the price will break below 540 or test 560 tomorrow, from the current structure, both possibilities exist simultaneously. Near 540, which is close to the short-term moving average and support zone, a break below could lead the market to retest 535 or even 528; however, if market sentiment aligns, there is also potential for the stock price to test the resistance at 560. Therefore, rather than predicting direction, it's better to treat 540 and 560 as the two ends of the range: a break below 540 signals weakness, while a breakout above 560 confirms strength.

As for the strategy of holding a bull certificate with a knock-out price of 542 to bet on earnings, extra caution is required. At the current price of 550, the bull certificate at 542 has only about an 8-point buffer, or approximately 1.5%, making it an extremely tight structure. In the scenario of increased volatility around earnings, even if the overall direction is correct, a brief dip to around 540 could trigger knock-out risk. This type of strategy is not purely bullish but rather a high-risk short-term gamble, demanding very strict risk control.

Overall, Tencent is still in a rebound phase but has not yet turned strong. The 560 level remains a key resistance, while 535 to 528 serves as crucial support. Before breaking through resistance, the short-term approach should be range-bound thinking rather than pre-setting a one-sided direction. For retail investors, pre-earnings strategies must carefully manage leverage and recovery distances to avoid taking on excessive risk due to short-term fluctuations. $GJTENCT@EC2607A.C (23121.HK)$$BI#TENCTRC2612K.C (62650.HK)$$UB#TENCTRC26076.C (59949.HK)$$BITENCT@EC2608E.C (26418.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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