Domestic demand stocks rise for two consecutive days; Pop Mart enters key trading range

Consumer retail data shows positive performance, with domestic demand stocks rising for two consecutive days. Among them, $POP MART (09992.HK)$ 、 $MNSO (09896.HK)$ 、 $LI NING (02331.HK)$ currently up over 3%, $HAIDILAO (06862.HK)$ 、 $ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK)$ also recorded gains ranging from 0.49% to 1.85%.

Looking at the price trend of Pop Mart, after experiencing a prior period of consecutive adjustments, the stock has recently shown a noticeable rebound. It has successfully reclaimed the 10-day moving average (MA10: 207.36 yuan) and stabilized above the 60-day moving average (MA60: 214.05 yuan), indicating that short-term upward momentum has strengthened somewhat. However, the stock price is still constrained by the 30-day moving average (MA30: 228.76 yuan), showing that the medium-term downward trend has not been fully reversed, with significant resistance remaining evident above. Overall, the stock price is currently in a critical trading range between short-term moving average support and medium-term moving average resistance, with the subsequent directional choice soon to appear.

Further analysis of technical indicators reveals that multiple indicators are currently showing clear divergence. Among oscillation indicators, the Stochastic Oscillator has entered the overbought zone, issuing a sell signal, suggesting that the stock may face technical pullback pressure following its recent cumulative rebound; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 46, which is within the neutral range, and the CCI is also in a neutral state, offering no clear directional guidance. Notably, the Volume Rate (VR) indicator is issuing a 'oversold, possible bottoming' buy signal, and the Bull-Bear Power indicator also points towards a bullish view, aligning with the stock's rebound from its recent low point, hinting that the previous selling pressure may have temporarily eased.

In contrast, trend-following indicators such as the Average Directional Index (ADX), Rate of Change (ROC), Ichimoku Cloud, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Bollinger Bands all consistently issue sell signals. The summary signal for technical indicators is 'Sell' with an intensity rating as high as 9, reflecting that the medium-term bearish trend has yet to be fully reversed. This divergence phenomenon where oscillation indicators suggest buying while trend indicators firmly indicate selling often signifies that the market is in a transitional phase where trends are uncertain, leading to lower predictability in future movements.

In terms of key price levels, Pop Mart’s current stock price has immediate support at 201 yuan. If it effectively breaks below this level, it could further test the previous low support at 192 yuan. The first resistance above is seen at 236 yuan, and if it can break through this position with volume, there is potential to challenge the medium-term resistance at 255 yuan.

Reviewing March 13th, Pop Mart accumulated an increase of 6.05% over two days, $HS#POMRTRC2609E.C (57271.HK)$ The bullish warrants recorded a cumulative increase of 43% within two days, $UB#POMRTRC2609D.C (57407.HK)$ with cumulative increases reaching 38%. Call warrant products similarly followed the underlying stock's rise, recording substantial gains, $HSPOMRT@EC2607A.C (24834.HK)$ and $CIPOMRT@EC2607B.C (24801.HK)$ and the cumulative increase over two days was 28% for both.

Analyzing derivative street-level data from March 12 to 16 shows that the market generally remains optimistic about the continuation of Pop Mart’s current rebound, with significantly stronger bullish capital deployment compared to bearish positions. Both types of bullish products saw simultaneous increases in positions, with call warrant street volumes steadily rising from 752.72 million to 774.42 million, a 2.9% increase over three days. Bullish warrant volumes also increased from 197.44 million to 210.03 million, a 6.4% increase. On the bearish side, changes in street volumes were relatively mild, with put warrant volumes slightly dropping from 228.81 million to 226.71 million, maintaining an overall volatile pattern. Bearish warrant volumes continued to decline from 99.02 million to 97.7 million, showing a gradual reduction in positions, reflecting that bearish funds have become more cautious as the stock price steadily rebounds, with strong intentions to take profits.

Investors who believe that the stock price can break through the current resistance zone may consider two call warrants with relatively lower premiums. Among them, $BIPOMRT@EC2606A.C (24839.HK)$ The strike price is 254.08 yuan, offering approximately 5.3 times leverage, and its premium is relatively attractive among similar products. Another option is $UBPOMRT@EC2606B.C (23647.HK)$ , with a strike price of 250.19 yuan, slightly higher leverage at around 6 times, also characterized by a lower premium, making it suitable for investors looking to capitalize on a rebound.

If you believe the stock price might encounter resistance and pull back to retest lower support levels, then put warrants can be considered. $JPPOMRT@EP2605B.P (24958.HK)$ The strike price is 177.9 yuan, with leverage of about 6.7 times, and the premium level is relatively low. Meanwhile, $BIPOMRT@EP2609A.P (15457.HK)$ the strike price is 179.9 yuan; although the leverage is about 3.4 times, its implied volatility is the lowest among similar products, and it offers a higher actual leverage, making it an efficient choice for bearish investors focused on cost control.

As for bull and bear certificates, their price movements closely follow the underlying stocks without time decay, making them suitable for short-term trading. Investors who are bullish may want to keep an eye on $HS#POMRTRC2609E.C (57271.HK)$ , with a recovery price of 181 yuan and leverage of about 4.9 times, which is relatively high among bull certificates. $UB#POMRTRC2609D.C (57407.HK)$ The recovery price is 180 yuan, offering the highest actual leverage and a lower premium, serving as a tool for aggressive bullish strategies. Bearish investors, on the other hand, may focus on two bear certificates, $HS#POMRTRP2812C.P (68843.HK)$ and $UB#POMRTRP2812K.P (67830.HK)$ with a recovery price of 240 yuan each, providing relatively high actual leverage of about 8.2 times and a low premium. Among them, UBS Group’s bear certificate (67830) has the lowest premium in its category, effectively amplifying returns for those bearish on the market outlook.

This rebound in consumer demand stocks coincides with improvements in retail sales data. What do you think about the sustainability of the consumer sector going forward? Pop Mart currently has downside support at 201 yuan and upside resistance at 236 yuan, presenting similar upside and downside potential. If you were to position corresponding bull or bear certificate products, would you prioritize a bullish or bearish direction? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'Hong Kong Warrants Jenny' for daily updates! $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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