Geely Earnings Outlook: Stock Price Hits Stage High, Can Bulls Secure Another Win?

$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ Will announce earnings tomorrow (the 18th). The share price surged to 19.14 yuan in early trading today, hitting a new high since November 2025. It has now recovered all long- and short-term moving averages, with a fully bullish technical setup. The cumulative gain in this rebound is nearly 20%, accompanied by a simultaneous increase in trading volume, significantly outperforming the broader market.

Bloomberg Intelligence expects a year-over-year increase of approximately 24% in Q4 shipments. The three core areas to watch in this earnings report are gross margin improvement from product mix optimization, efficiency gains following Zeekr's privatization, and progress in overseas business expansion. In the context of intensifying price competition in the new energy vehicle industry and gradual withdrawal of purchase subsidies, if the company’s gross margin shows an improvement from Q3, it would validate the effectiveness of its product mix optimization and cost control strategies, forming a key driver for continued upward movement in the stock price. Additionally, Zeekr’s post-privatization operational plans, the launch schedule of new models in 2026, and overseas sales targets will also be critical factors influencing medium-term market pricing.

Key technical indicators generally show a positive trend. MACD has issued a buy signal, while Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands also support the assessment of strengthening momentum, consistent with the stock price rising above all major moving averages. However, some oscillation indicators suggest potential overheating risks in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator (KD) has entered overbought territory, currently still showing a neutral signal but warning of chasing-high risks; the RSI is at 60, also reflecting a moderately strong region. Notably, CCI has given a clear buy signal, indicating strong current price momentum and suggesting the trend may continue. The Psychological Line (PSY) indicator also issues a buy signal, reflecting optimistic market sentiment. However, Momentum Oscillation (MTM) and Rate of Change (ROC) indicators show slight divergence or sell signals, hinting at possible fluctuations in upward momentum.

In terms of key price levels, the stock price is currently facing initial important resistance at 18.8 yuan. A breakout on higher volumes could lead to a next target around 20.1 yuan. Support below appears solid due to convergence of moving averages, with initial support at 16.5 yuan and stronger support around the 16-yuan level. This implies limited downside risk in the short term, with clear defensive lines for the bulls.

Analyzing changes in street-level data for derivatives markets between March 12 and 16, investor expectations for Geely’s earnings are distinctly bullish: positions in bullish products have risen across the board. Bull certificate street volume increased sharply from 37.43 million units to 42.88 million units, marking a 14.6% rise in just three days. Meanwhile, call warrant street volume rose from 131.58 million units to 133.85 million units, reflecting leveraged funds positioning ahead of anticipated favorable earnings. By contrast, bearish product positions saw relatively modest changes. Put warrant street volume remained within the range of 13-14 million units, while bear certificate street volume increased from 4.67 million units to 6.09 million units, though still only amounting to one-seventh of bull certificates, reflecting weaker bearish forces.

Looking back at March 10th, in the two trading days that followed, Geely's cumulative increase reached 9.27%. The corresponding bullish products rose significantly along with the underlying stock, among which $UB#GEELYRC2707B.C (64724.HK)$ the two-day cumulative increase reached 50%, $HS#GEELYRC2611A.C (66250.HK)$ with an increase also reaching 50%.

For investors optimistic about the subsequent performance trend, they may consider call warrants or bull contracts with higher leverage effects. $BIGEELY@EC2609A.C (25051.HK)$ The exercise price is 19.51 yuan, and its feature lies in a leverage ratio of 4.6 times, the highest among available options, while enjoying a lower premium. This means that if the underlying stock breaks through the current resistance and moves up to challenge the target price, the price elasticity of this warrant may be more significant. For investors who value holding costs and volatility risk more, $HSGEELY@EC2609A.C (25084.HK)$ another quality option is provided, with the same exercise price of 19.51 yuan and a leverage ratio of 4.8 times. Its greatest advantage is that both its premium and implied volatility are the lowest among similar products, which can reduce the impact of time value decay and volatility changes to a certain extent, making it suitable for investors looking to position themselves in medium-term upward trends at a relatively low cost. For investors who prefer bull contracts, $SG#GEELYRC2607A.C (65332.HK)$ the recovery price is set at 14.5 yuan, actual leverage reaches 4.5 times, and it has the lowest premium among bull contracts, offering a combination of high leverage and low cost; and $BP#GEELYRC2607A.C (55437.HK)$ the recovery price is 14.9 yuan, with actual leverage of 4.8 times, also characterized by a low premium. Both are suitable for betting on a continuation of the rebound trend above solid support levels.

Although market sentiment leans bullish, some technical indicators suggest short-term overheating risks, and the stock price faces a key resistance level. Cautious investors or those wishing to hedge their existing positions may consider put warrants or bear contracts. Regarding put warrants, $BIGEELY@EP2606A.P (18379.HK)$ and $UBGEELY@EP2606A.P (18457.HK)$ the exercise prices are both 14.73 yuan, with leverages of 6.8 times and 7 times respectively. Their common advantage is relatively low implied volatility, which is a favorable factor for option buyers because their prices are less negatively affected by volatility changes. If investors believe that the stock price may experience a technical pullback near the resistance level, they can consider deploying small positions. As for bear contracts, you can pay attention to $UB#GEELYRP2608B.P (59482.HK)$Its redemption price is set at HK$21, with an actual leverage of 4.9 times, the highest leverage among similar products. It is suitable for investors who believe that the stock price has risen too much in the short term and may face downside pressure to conduct swing trading. However, it should be noted that there is a certain distance between its redemption price and the current price, and the risk of hitting the redemption price needs to be assessed.

Geely's earnings are about to be announced. The current stock price is at a new high and the technical indicators show a fully bullish trend. Do you think the stock price will continue to rise after the earnings release to test the HK$20 mark, or will there be a pullback due to profit-taking? Currently, the new energy vehicle sector is showing divergence. Among key automakers such as Geely,$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ 、 $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Among core automakers like [missing context], which stock would you prioritize?

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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