Wall Street Daily (March 17): US stocks rebounded significantly on Monday, with technology and discretionary consumption regaining capital favor; oil prices plummeted and volatility eased, shifting the market from a defensive stance back to risk recovery.

Summary: On Monday, US stocks rebounded strongly, with the S&P 500 rising 1.01%, Nasdaq up 1.22%, Dow Jones gaining 0.83%, and Russell 2000 climbing 0.94%; VIX fell to 23.51, plunging 13.53% in a single day, indicating that the previously tense defensive sentiment had eased noticeably. The core driver of the session came from the rapid easing of energy shocks: crude oil dropped 6.12% in a day, directly reducing market concerns over Iran war spillover, sticky inflation, and policy constraints. Meanwhile, neither the Federal Reserve nor the White House economic team issued new high-pressure signals, allowing the market to view the drop in oil prices as a short-term relief window. Technology and high-elasticity assets benefited significantly, with growth-heavy companies like Meta seeing capital inflows. In terms of major asset classes, the dollar index fell 0.68%, gold declined 0.25%, crude oil dropped 6.12%, and Bitcoin rose 2.76%. Overall, the market shifted from high-pressure defense to risk recovery, but this looks more like a trading-driven correction, with the medium-term structure yet to fully reverse.

I. Major Events

1. Oil prices plummeted in a single day, bringing the strongest market recovery since the Iran war.

The most critical variable on Monday was the rapid decline in oil prices. The main contradiction that had been suppressing the market was the inflationary pressure and policy uncertainty caused by high oil prices; once crude oil plunged 6.12% in a day, risky assets immediately found room to breathe. The four major indices all closed higher, and the significant retreat of VIX indicated that funds began concentrating on covering previously overly compressed risk positions. For the market, this wasn't due to the emergence of a new narrative, but rather a counter-recovery triggered by the temporary easing of old pressures.

2. No new policy suppression signals, leading to valuation recovery for growth assets.

By the close on Monday, neither the Federal Reserve nor the White House economic team provided new high-pressure statements, meaning the market was not interrupted by additional policy risks. Trading focus subsequently returned to oil prices, the dollar, and volatility itself. With the dollar index falling 0.68% and VIX retreating 13.53% in a single day, the growth sector received more direct room for valuation recovery, with Nasdaq leading the broader market rally and technology and discretionary consumption returning to the strongest momentum.

3. Cryptocurrency payments and high-elasticity Chinese stocks rose in tandem

If the rebound is solely supported by a few heavyweight stocks, recovery is often difficult to sustain. However, on Monday, apart from the index rising, CRCL surged 9.06%, TME increased by 6.34%, FUTU rose 5.60%, and Bitcoin also gained 2.76%. This indicates that capital is not merely flowing back into large tech companies but is simultaneously increasing positions in a broader range of high-elasticity assets. Such a structure suggests the rebound has some diffusion, but whether it can evolve into a more sustained rally still depends on whether the decline in oil prices can continue.

II. Major Trends

The biggest change in Monday's market was the shift from 'full defense' to 'risk recovery.' On the sector level, XLK led with a 1.45% rise, followed closely by XLY at 1.21%; whereas XLP, which had been more resilient, only rose 0.28%, indicating clearer signs of capital flowing from defensive consumer sectors back into growth and discretionary consumption. Meanwhile, high-elasticity assets outside the index were also recovering simultaneously, with Chinese stocks and crypto chains not lagging behind, showing this rebound wasn't just propped up by mega-cap stocks. From a medium-term perspective, RSP outperformed SPY over three months (1.79% vs -1.16%), and SPYV outperformed SPYG (1.10% vs -3.14%), so the more accurate assessment remains: short-term risk recovery is clear, but the framework favoring medium-term value has not yet changed.

III. Market Sentiment

Market sentiment saw substantial improvement on Monday. The VIX fell to 23.51, dropping 13.53% in a single day, with hedging demand rapidly receding, which was one of the key factors enabling a meaningful rebound. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained at 23, without a synchronous increase, indicating that while investors began to re-enter risk assets, overall caution still prevailed, and optimism had not set in. The Put/Call ratio staying near its highs also suggests protective positions haven’t fully retreated. Overall, this looks more like 'a trading-driven recovery after panic eased,' rather than an across-the-board bullish sentiment reversal.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

Index ETFs rebounded across the board, with QQQ leading at a 1.12% rise, SPY gaining 1.02%, and DIA relatively lagging at 0.83%. Growth sectors saw stronger recovery, reflecting the market's immediate move to restore tech valuations previously compressed by high oil prices and volatility. At the same time, small caps represented by the Russell 2000 also rose in tandem, showing this wasn't a single-point recovery limited to a few heavyweights.

2. Sector Performance

Among industry sectors, XLK rose 1.45% as the leading sector, followed by XLY at 1.21%, with capital clearly favoring growth and consumer elasticity; by comparison, XLP only gained 0.28%, lagging significantly on the rebound day, reflecting some reallocation from defensive positions. The key signal on Monday wasn't about 'whether the market went up,' but 'who rose faster': the leaders were precisely the previously most pressured tech and discretionary consumption sectors.

3. Seven tech giants

Within M7, there was also evidence of restored risk appetite. META rose 2.24%, becoming one of the leading stocks in the sector, with high-elasticity platform stocks regaining capital support; NFLX dropped 0.12%, lagging relatively amid the overall strength in tech. This shows that capital isn’t spreading evenly, but prefers higher-elasticity, deeper pullback growth targets.

4. Chinese Equities

Chinese stocks rose in tandem, with notable elasticity. TME gained 6.34%, becoming one of the strongest Chinese stocks of the day; FUTU rose 5.60%, indicating significant recovery in the previously pressured broker chain; by contrast, BIDU fell 1.83%, being one of the few Chinese heavyweights under pressure. Overall, the performance of Chinese stocks further confirms that this rebound isn't just circulating within U.S.-based heavyweights but has some cross-sector diffusion.

5. Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 2.76% on the day, with high-volatility assets coming back into focus. Among concept stocks, CRCL surged 9.06%, becoming one of the strongest offensive directions, with stablecoins and crypto payment chains being more sensitive to improved risk appetite; however, MARA falling 0.97% also reminds us that divergence remains within the crypto chain. Currently, it seems more like a thematic recovery towards 'more sensitive, higher-elasticity' directions rather than indiscriminate broad-based gains.

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