Has the rebound opportunity arrived? Hong Kong stocks welcome a strong start in May
March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma
1. Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,834 on March 16. Observing the daily chart trend, after retreating from the earlier high of 28,056, the index once tested a low of 24,906 before experiencing a technical rebound. The recent rebound has brought the index back near the 25,800 level, but overall it is still in the recovery phase following the decline. In terms of short-term moving averages, the 5-day line is approximately at 25,775, and the 10-day line is around 25,637; the index has now regained its position above these two short-term moving averages, indicating that the short-term downtrend has somewhat eased. However, regarding medium-term moving averages, the 20-day line is about 26,130, the 30-day line is approximately 26,444, and the 60-day line is near 26,376; the index remains below multiple medium-term moving averages, reflecting that the medium-term trend has not yet fully reversed, currently resembling a consolidation pattern after the rebound.
In terms of Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately at 26,130, the upper band is around 27,249, and the lower band is approximately 25,011. The index previously rebounded after reaching a low of 24,906 near the lower Bollinger Band, and the current price is still running below the middle band, indicating that the market has not yet returned to a stronger region. From a short-term structure perspective, the area around 25,800 represents the mid-point of the rebound. First, the index needs to break through the middle Bollinger Band around 26,130 for the market to have the opportunity to test higher levels. Regarding the RSI, the three RSI lines are roughly within the 46 to 50 range, with momentum at a neutral level, showing no clear overbought or oversold signals. In terms of trading volume, there was no significant increase during the recent rebound, reflecting that the market is still in a process of oscillation and recovery.
From the perspective of short-term risk-reward ratio, the index rebounded near 24,906, which is close to the lower Bollinger Band, forming recent technical support. Based on the current closing price of 25,834, the more apparent support below can be observed around 25,000, while the short-term observation area above is near the middle Bollinger Band at 26,130 and the closely watched 26,300 zone. If the index continues to rebound in the short term and tests 26,300, the upside potential would be several hundred points; conversely, if it retreats and retests near 25,000, the downside risk is similar. Thus, the current structure resembles a range-bound recovery pattern, with the short-term risk-reward mainly depending on whether the index can regain the 26,100 to 26,300 region.
Observing the trading situation in the bull and bear warrants market, the total turnover for the day was approximately HK$1.169 billion. Bull warrants accounted for about 60%, while bear warrants made up around 40% of the turnover. The overall trading structure indicates a relatively higher proportion of bullish capital, reflecting that some investors are still inclined to position themselves for an upward movement after the index rebounded from near 24,900. Observing the distribution of stop-loss prices, bull warrant turnover was mainly concentrated in the 24,800 to 25,200 region, where related products showed notably active trading. These stop-loss levels are largely below the recent low of 24,906, indicating that some investors prefer to set their stop-loss prices at lower levels to avoid being forced out by short-term fluctuations, while leveraging higher leverage to participate in the rebound.
On the bear warrant side, there were also some bearish deployments. Observing the distribution of stop-loss prices, there was a certain amount of bear warrant product turnover in the 26,700 to 26,900 region, with relatively concentrated trading near 26,900. This region is relatively close to the medium-term moving average area on the technical chart, reflecting that some investors view this area as a potential short-term resistance level, thus choosing to establish bearish positions near 25,800.
Regarding the view held by some investors in the market that the Hang Seng Index might rebound to 26,300 and trigger some bear warrants, from a technical structure perspective, the area near 26,300 is indeed close to the middle Bollinger Band and some medium-term moving averages, making it an important short-term technical observation area. If the index can break through the area near 26,100 and continue the rebound, 26,300 will naturally become the next testing point. On the other hand, some bearish investors choose to hold bear warrants overnight with stop-loss prices near 26,800. Observing the distribution in the bull and bear warrant market, there is indeed a presence of products and trading in this region, reflecting that some investors consider the area near 26,800 as a short-term resistance level.
Based on the comprehensive technical trend and the trading distribution in the bull-bear certificate market, Hang Seng Index is currently in a recovery phase after rebounding near 25,000. The bullish capital mainly concentrates on bull certificates with lower strike prices, reflecting that some investors are betting on the continuation of the rebound; meanwhile, there are also bearish deployments around 26,800, showing that the market remains cautious about resistance levels above. The short-term trend still needs to observe the performance of the index near the 26,100 to 26,300 region, which might become an important observation point for both bulls and bears in the short term. $BI#HSI RC2807D.C (68194.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2809E.C (54626.HK)$
2. CATL (03750.HK) $CATL (03750.HK)$
CATL (03750.HK) has recently shown obvious strengthening, with the stock closing at HKD 670 on March 16, refreshing its recent high. From the daily chart, the stock formed a local low around HKD 457 before gradually recovering, and the uptrend has recently accelerated. Last week, several consecutive trading days saw noticeable upward candlesticks, eventually pushing the price to the HKD 670 level. Regarding technical indicators, short-term moving averages show a clear bullish alignment: the 5-day line is around HKD 610, the 10-day line around HKD 553, and the 20-day line around HKD 535; the stock price is currently above all these short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating a sustained uptrend. On the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is around HKD 535, while the upper band is around HKD 635. Currently, the stock price is significantly above the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting that the recent uptrend is in a strong expansion phase. For the RSI, the short-term RSI is approximately 90, with other RSIs around 80 and 72, all above the 70 level, indicating strong market momentum but also reflecting a sharp recent increase.
From the perspective of short-term value betting rate, the current stock price has obviously deviated from the Bollinger middle band and short-term moving averages. If analyzed through technical structure, the Bollinger upper band is around HKD 635, and the 5-day line is around HKD 610, both of which are important technical reference areas within the recent uptrend. Since the current stock price is near the high of HKD 670, if investors wish to participate in the uptrend, they would typically observe whether the stock consolidates near the short-term moving averages or the Bollinger upper band, such as the area around HKD 630 to HKD 610. If the stock price pulls back to these technical levels while remaining above key moving averages, the upward structure will still be intact. Conversely, if the uptrend continues without consolidation, short-term volatility may increase. Hence, short-term value betting rates often require waiting for the distance between price and moving averages to narrow before becoming more apparent.
Observing the trading situation in CATL's warrant market, recent market turnover has been concentrated in call warrants, reflecting that many investors tend to use call warrants to participate in the uptrend during the stock price rise. The most actively traded products are mostly concentrated in the strike price range of approximately HKD 640 to HKD 700, with significant turnover recorded for related products. At the current price of HKD 670, some products with strike prices around HKD 640 to HKD 650 are considered near-the-money structures, while those with strike prices near HKD 680 to HKD 700 are slightly out-of-the-money. In terms of structural terms, the actual leverage for call warrants in these regions is generally high. Thus, when the stock price experiences a rapid short-term rise, trading in these related products tends to be relatively active.
As for the 680-strike bear certificates that some investors are concerned about, from the perspective of the technical chart position, the current stock price of HKD 670 is not far from HKD 680, with only about HKD 10 difference. Given the recent sharp rise in stock price, if the market continues the short-term uptrend, it is possible for the stock price to reach HKD 680 in a short time. Since bear certificates will be forcibly redeemed once the strike price is reached, those with strike prices close to the current price carry relatively higher risk. Observing the market product distribution, there are indeed some bear certificate products around HKD 680. Therefore, if the stock price rises further, these products may face forced redemption risks.
Overall, CATL is still in a strong upward structure, with the stock price far above multiple moving averages and breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting continued strong market momentum. However, since the RSI is already at a high level and the price has deviated significantly from short-term moving averages, short-term trends may experience consolidation. For investors looking to participate in the uptrend, the market often observes whether the stock price will re-stabilize after a pullback near short-term moving averages. Meanwhile, for investors deploying bear certificates, if the strike price is too close to the current price, attention should be paid to potential forced redemption risks if the uptrend continues. Overall market capital is still concentrated in call warrant trading, indicating that investors remain focused on the stock’s subsequent performance amid the recent rally. $BI-CATL@EC2609A.C (13229.HK)$$SG#CATL RC2609C.C (55713.HK)$$HS#CATL RC2610B.C (55290.HK)$$UB-CATL@EC2605A.C (22841.HK)$
3. BYD Company (01211.HK) $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$
BYD Company (01211.HK) has recently shown significant strengthening, with the stock closing at HKD 104.3 in the latest trading session. From the daily chart, the stock formed a local low around HKD 88.5 before gradually recovering. Recently, it consolidated in the range of approximately HKD 96 to HKD 100, and in the latest trading session, it showed a noticeable upward breakout, reaching an intraday high of HKD 104.8 and returning to the year-to-date high region. Regarding technical indicators, short-term moving averages have realigned upwards: the 5-day line is around HKD 98.9, the 10-day line around HKD 97.1, the 20-day line around HKD 97.3, and the 30-day line around HKD 96.3, with the stock price currently above these short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has regained strength. However, from a long-term perspective, the 250-day line is around HKD 112, still above the current stock price, making the HKD 112 area an important mid-term technical reference point.
Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is around HKD 97.3, the upper band around HKD 102.2, and the lower band around HKD 92.4. Currently, the stock price of HKD 104.3 is already above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a rapid short-term uptrend. For the RSI, the short-term RSI is around 73, with other RSIs around 64 and 57, showing increasing market momentum but also approaching the higher region. In terms of volume, the latest volume is approximately 56.8 million shares, and after the stock price broke through the HKD 100 region, volume increased significantly, reflecting enhanced market participation.
From the perspective of short-term value betting rate, the stock price has rebounded from HKD 88.5 to around HKD 104, a considerable increase, and the current price is already above the upper Bollinger Band. Analyzing solely from the technical structure, the nearest support areas are mainly concentrated around the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 102 and the short-term moving average region around HKD 99 to HKD 97. If the stock consolidates and re-stabilizes in these areas, the uptrend structure will remain intact; conversely, if the stock continues to rise sharply without consolidation, short-term volatility may increase. Looking at the upside, HKD 115 is roughly near the long-term moving average region. Thus, at the current level around HKD 104, the market still requires new momentum to push towards higher levels.
Observing the trading activity in BYD's warrant market, recent transactions have mainly concentrated on call warrants, reflecting that many investors are choosing to use call warrants to participate in the upward trend after the stock price broke through 100 yuan. The strike prices of the more actively traded products are primarily concentrated in the 100 to 110 yuan range, with relatively higher trading volumes for some products whose strike prices are closer to the current price. At the current price of 104 yuan, products with a strike price between 100 and 105 yuan belong to a near-the-money structure, while products with a strike price above 110 yuan fall under a slightly out-of-the-money structure. Observing from the terms structure, the actual leverage of these related products is generally at a high level, thus during a short-term rise in stock price, trading volume in these call warrants also remains relatively active.
As for the bull certificate with a recall price of 83.33 yuan mentioned by some investors, observing from the price position, there is still a significant distance between 83.33 yuan and the current price of 104 yuan, and this position is clearly lower than the recent low of 88.5 yuan. From a technical structure perspective, the area around 83 yuan is relatively low, so if short-term fluctuations remain within the recent uptrend, the distance to this recall price is still relatively far. However, once a bull certificate product hits the recall price, it will be forcibly recalled, so investors need to be mindful of stock price volatility risks when using such products.
As for whether the stock price has the potential to test 115 yuan this week, which some investors are concerned about, observing from the chart structure, the area near 115 yuan is close to the long-term moving average region and also represents a relatively high point on the current chart. If the stock price can maintain its upward momentum after breaking through 100 yuan and gradually push higher, the market will naturally observe the possibility of higher levels. However, based on current technical indicators, the stock price is already above the upper Bollinger Band, and the RSI is also in a relatively high area, so the short-term trend may still be accompanied by a consolidation process.
Integrating observations of the technical trend and warrant market trading distribution, BYD is currently in a strong phase following a recovery from a low point, with the short-term uptrend driving an increase in call warrant trading volume, indicating that market funds are focusing more on the upward direction amid the recent trend. Future short-term trends will still require observation of the consolidation situation in the stock price above the 100 yuan region and the extent of market participation in subsequent upward movements. $HS#BYD RC2608Q.C (59877.HK)$$HS-BYD @EC2608A.C (25528.HK)$$UB#BYD RC2608F.C (55894.HK)$$UB-BYD @EC2608A.C (25678.HK)$
4. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (01880.HK) $CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (01880.HK) has seen its stock price gradually enter a consolidation phase after retreating from a high point. The latest daily chart shows a closing price of 72.75 yuan. Observing from the trend structure, the stock price had previously risen to near 107 yuan, forming a temporary high, after which a noticeable pullback occurred, with the lowest point reaching 65.65 yuan. Recently, the stock price has started to consolidate horizontally around the 70-yuan mark, and on the most recent trading day returned to near the 72-yuan level, showing that the short-term downtrend has slowed.
In terms of technical indicators, the short-term moving averages are beginning to narrow. The 5-day line is approximately at 71 yuan, the 10-day line at 72 yuan, and the stock price has now moved back near these two short-term moving averages. However, regarding mid-term moving averages, the 20-day line is about 81 yuan, the 30-day line about 85 yuan, and the 60-day line about 83 yuan, with the stock price still below these mid-term moving averages, reflecting that the overall structure is still in the recovery phase after a pullback from highs. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is about 81 yuan, the upper band about 105 yuan, and the lower band about 57 yuan; the current stock price is below the middle Bollinger Band, close to the lower-middle part of the channel, indicating that the market is still in a consolidation zone after the pullback.
Regarding the RSI, the short-term RSI is approximately 43, with other RSI lines at about 37 and 42, remaining below the 50-mark but showing signs of recovery from previous lows, indicating some improvement in short-term momentum. In terms of trading volume, recent volume has decreased compared to earlier highs, showing that the market has entered a consolidation phase after the pullback, with no significant increase in trading activity.
From the perspective of short-term value betting rates, the stock price previously dropped to a low of 65.65 yuan and has now formed a short-term consolidation zone around the 70-yuan mark. Calculating from the current price of 72.75 yuan, the nearest observation zone below is still in the 70 to 66 yuan range, while the short-term target to regain a foothold above is near the 75 to 80 yuan range, with the 80-yuan area also close to the Bollinger middle band and the 20-day line. Since the stock price is still below multiple mid-term moving averages, the short-term structure resembles the early stages of a rebound; therefore, if the stock price can stabilize around 70 yuan, the market may gradually recover from the previous decline.
Observing the trading activity in China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited's warrant market, recent transactions have mainly focused on call warrants, reflecting that some investors have begun to pay attention to rebound opportunities after the stock price retreated to near 70 yuan. The more popular products in the market have strike prices primarily concentrated in the 75 to 85 yuan range, with certain trading volume recorded for products with strike prices near 80 yuan. At the current price of 72 yuan, products with strike prices near 80 yuan fall into a slightly out-of-the-money structure, and when the stock price rebounds, the leverage effect of these products will also become relatively evident.
In response to investor inquiries about whether the stock price has "limited downside and can be bought at the bottom," technical chart analysis shows that the previous low of 65.65 yuan remains a relatively clear reference point in the near term, and the current stock price is still some distance from that level. Therefore, the market remains in a consolidation phase in the short term. If the stock price can gradually stabilize around 70 yuan and recover upward, the market will naturally observe whether it can gradually return to higher levels. However, if the stock price breaks below the recent consolidation area again, the market may also retest the previous low.
As for the call warrant with a strike price of 80.4 yuan mentioned by investors, this product has an out-of-the-money structure. If the stock price rebounds in the short term and approaches the 80-yuan range, the price movement of the related product will be relatively sensitive. However, the call warrant also experiences time decay, so investors need to pay attention to stock price volatility and holding period when using such products.
Overall, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited is currently in the consolidation phase after falling from its peak, with initial signs of stabilization appearing near 70 yuan in the short term. Some investors in the CBBC (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts) market have started to focus on potential rebounds and are concentrating on call warrants with strike prices close to 80 yuan. However, from a technical perspective, the stock price still needs to gradually recover from the previous decline, and the market will continue to observe the consolidation situation near 70 yuan and subsequent capital participation.
5. Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) $HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$
Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) has gradually entered the consolidation phase after retreating from its recent high. The latest daily chart shows a closing price of 94.5 yuan. Observing the overall trend, the stock price rose from around 64.75 yuan and later reached a near-term high of around 124 yuan before pulling back. Recently, the stock price has been fluctuating mainly within the 90 to 95 yuan range, indicating that the market has entered a consolidation phase following the previous uptrend.
In terms of technical indicators, short-term moving averages are gradually converging. The 5-day line is around 92 yuan, the 10-day line is around 89 yuan, and the stock price has now moved back above these two short-term moving averages. The 20-day line is approximately 93.9 yuan, which the stock price is also approaching. However, the 30-day line, at about 97.6 yuan, remains above the stock price, indicating that the medium-term trend is still in the recovery phase. From the perspective of the moving average structure, multiple moving averages are narrowing, signaling that the market is in a zone of dense moving averages, often suggesting that the stock price is awaiting a new direction.
Regarding Bollinger Bands, the middle band is around 93.9 yuan, the upper band is approximately 104.3 yuan, and the lower band is roughly 83.5 yuan. The current stock price is near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is temporarily in a neutral zone. As for the RSI, the short-term RSI is around 56, with other RSI lines hovering around 50. Overall momentum is at a neutral level, with no significant overbought or oversold signals appearing.
In terms of trading volume, the chart shows the latest trading volume is approximately 48.36 million shares. Trading volume has increased recently, indicating that there is some capital participation near 90 yuan, but an obvious trend breakout has yet to form.
From the perspective of short-term technical structure, the stock price is currently testing the 90 to 95 yuan range. Analyzing the moving average positions, the 97 to 98 yuan range is near the 30-day moving average and also represents the upper edge of the recent consolidation zone, making it a naturally important technical observation level in the short term. If the stock price can remain stable above the short-term moving averages and gradually push upward, the market will watch for potential retests of this range. However, if the stock price fails to sustain the rebound, the market may continue to consolidate within the current range.
Observing the CBBC market trading conditions, recent market turnover has been concentrated in call warrants, reflecting that some investors have begun to look for rebound opportunities as the stock price fell to around 90 yuan. Actively traded products mainly have strike prices between 95 and 105 yuan, with some products having strike prices near 98 yuan also recording notable trading volumes. At the current price of 94.5 yuan, these products belong to at-the-money to slightly out-of-the-money structures, thus when the stock price approaches the relevant strike price range, trading activity in these products tends to be relatively high.
In response to investors' question of whether the stock price has the opportunity to break through 98 yuan, from the current technical structure, the area near 98 yuan is indeed close to the short-term moving average cluster and the upper part of the recent consolidation zone. Therefore, this area naturally becomes a price level that the short-term market is focusing on. If the stock price can gradually recover upward above the short-term moving averages, the market will naturally observe the performance of this area; however, if the upward momentum is insufficient, the stock price may continue to consolidate within the current range.
Overall, Huahong Semiconductor is currently in the consolidation phase after a pullback from its high position, with preliminary signs of stabilization appearing around 90 yuan. In the warrant market, some investors have started paying attention to rebound strategies, focusing on call warrants products near the current price. The short-term trend in the coming future still needs to observe how the stock price behaves within the 90 to 98 yuan range, as well as the extent of market capital participation in subsequent upward movements.$CIHUAHO@EP2611A.P (24659.HK)$$BIHUAHO@EP2607C.P (25020.HK)$$HS#HUAHORP2812A.P (63211.HK)$$UB#HUAHORP2812J.P (65176.HK)$
6. Kangfang Biotech (09926.HK)$AKESO (09926.HK)$
Akeso Biopharma (09926.HK) has seen a gradual recovery in its stock price following a rebound from a low point, with the latest daily chart showing a closing price of 116.6 yuan. Observing the overall trend, the stock previously formed an interim high near 130.5 yuan, then retreated, reaching a low of 93.65 yuan. Subsequently, the stock price gradually rebounded, recently returning to the region above 110 yuan, and tested the area near 116 yuan again in the latest trading session, indicating significant recovery after the previous decline.
Regarding technical indicators, the short-term moving averages have been trending upwards. The 5-day moving average is approximately at 113.6 yuan, the 10-day at 107.6 yuan, the 20-day at 106.6 yuan, and the 30-day at 105.7 yuan. The stock price is currently above these short- to medium-term moving averages, reflecting that short-term rebound momentum still exists. However, the 60-day moving average is about 111.6 yuan, and the 120-day moving average is around 117 yuan. Currently, the stock price is approaching this longer-term moving average area, which naturally becomes an important technical observation point for the short term. From the perspective of Bollinger Bands, the middle band is approximately 106.6 yuan, the upper band is about 117 yuan, and the lower band is around 96.2 yuan. The current stock price is nearing the upper band, indicating that the short-term uptrend is approaching the upper limit of the channel.
On the RSI side, the short-term RSI is approximately 67, while the other two RSIs are around 60 and 54, respectively. Overall, they are in the range above 50, indicating strong market momentum but not yet entering extreme overbought levels. As for volume, the latest data shows a volume of approximately 9.86 million shares. Recently, during the stock price rebound from around 100 yuan to above 110 yuan, trading volume increased, reflecting certain capital participation during the rebound process.
In response to investor concerns about whether there might be an adjustment given the more than 20-yuan increase from the low point to 117 yuan, from a chart structure perspective, the stock price rebounded from a low of 93.65 yuan to the current 116-yuan range, marking a relatively significant rebound. The current price is also near the upper Bollinger Band and some long-term moving averages, making this area a natural technical focus for the short-term market. If the stock consolidates near relevant moving averages and the upper Bollinger Band, it would represent a common technical pattern. Conversely, if the stock can remain consistently above the short-term moving averages and gradually push higher, the market will watch to see if there is potential to challenge the previous high area again.
Observing the trading activity in Akeso Biopharma's warrant market, recent transactions have mainly focused on call warrant products, indicating that some investors are still eyeing upside opportunities after the stock rebounded from a low point. Actively traded products have strike prices primarily concentrated in the 120 to 135 yuan range, with certain products near the 131-yuan strike price recording notable trading volumes. Based on the current price of 116 yuan, call warrants with a strike price of 131.36 yuan are out-of-the-money structures. Thus, when the stock price approaches the relevant strike price area, the leverage effect of related products will become relatively prominent.$SG#AKESORC2612A.C (61054.HK)$$UB#AKESORC2608E.C (64227.HK)$$SGAKESO@EC2608A.C (25883.HK)$$BIAKESO@EC2608A.C (25994.HK)$
Overall, Akeso Biopharma is currently in a recovery phase following a rebound from a low point, with the stock price returning to the region above 110 yuan and approaching the upper Bollinger Band and some long-term moving averages. The short-term market will naturally focus on the stock price’s behavior near 116 to 117 yuan, while some investors in the warrant market have also begun to pay attention to call warrant products with higher strike prices. The short-term trend going forward still requires observing the consolidation situation of the stock price in the current area, as well as the degree of market capital participation in subsequent trends.
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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