🎁Micron Technology faces a major earnings test! The stock price continues to soar—where does Micron's "AI memory dynasty" stand now?

On Wednesday, March 18, after the US stock market closes, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ will release its Q2 results for the fiscal year 2026.The market consensus expects that driven by strong ongoing demand for HBM, Micron’s revenue this quarter is expected to exceed $19.2 billion, with earnings per share projected to approach $8.7.

Over the past four quarters, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ 's stock price has surged nearly 400%. HBM production capacity has already been locked in for the entire year’s supply, and Wall Street’s target price continues to rise.

As these positive factors gradually become market consensus, investors’ focus begins to narrow down, eventually converging into one core question:How deep of an impact can this AI memory feast leave on Micron’s income statement?

Everyone knows HBM is selling like crazy. Micron’s HBM3E and HBM4 are sold out for all of 2026, with orders extending into 2027, as six major customers await delivery.But the market is no longer just focused on the 'sell-off' outcome; instead, it wants to know:

1. Yield rates and pricing: Can technological leadership translate into ASP benefits?

The market is no longer just looking at orders but closely watching the ramp-up pace of HBM3e yield rates, the mass production timeline for HBM4, and pricing power for the next-generation product. Micron Technology has advanced HBM4 shipments by a quarter. Whether its technical advantage can continue to translate into higher selling prices will be a key focus for earnings.

2. Capacity and capital expenditure: How is the long-term supply landscape being laid out?

A $9.6 billion wafer plant in Hiroshima, Japan, is planned to begin HBM production by 2028, while an advanced packaging facility in Singapore is expected to come online in 2027. These two projects directly determine Micron Technology's supply barriers post-2027. The market eagerly awaits more details from management regarding capacity ramp-ups and customer collaboration specifics.

The current annual capital expenditure guidance of $18 billion faces upward pressure. The market is paying attention to whether it might increase to a range of $20–25 billion and whether there are plans for additional capacity expansion in the second half of 2027.

3. How much further can the traditional memory upcycle go?

The rally in non-HBM products has been almost frenzied: Citi forecasts that the average DRAM price will soar 171% year-on-year by 2026, while the average NAND flash price will surge 127% year-on-year. The first half of the year is expected to enter a phase of undersupply.

On the supply side, cleanroom cycles, migration to advanced processes, and HBM's encroachment on production capacity have led to a passive contraction in traditional DRAM supply. On the demand side, AI moving downstream from the cloud, PC and smartphone capacity upgrades, and enterprise SSD demand being inversely driven, coupled with cloud providers extending their safety stock from two months to four to six months, and smartphone manufacturers also actively stockpiling, are all widening the supply-demand gap.

All of this will ultimately flow into the income statement.In the last quarter, Micron achieved better-than-expected growth through product mix optimization and improved pricing conditions.This quarter, with multiple factors such as rising DRAM prices, recovery in the NAND business, and increasing revenue share from HBM, can gross margin growth impress the market?

Looking back at the stock price, despite $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ a rise of over 400% in the past twelve months, its valuation ratio remains at moderate levels.This is Micron’s most eye-catching advantage — the magnitude of its earnings growth and upward revisions far exceed the pace of its stock price increase.

Ahead of earnings, the options market has already placed bets in anticipation, and after the earnings release, the stock price may experience a sharp swing of 10.61%.This time, what kind of report card will Micron deliver? And how big of an after-hours trading storm will it trigger?

Fellow investors, now, the suspense is in your hands!Join the prize interactive activity now~

[Prize Activity]

Activity One | Guess the Price Movement and Win Points

VoteParticipate in the prediction $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ The price change on the first trading day after the earnings release,Fellow investors who guess correctly will evenly split10,000 points!

(For instance, if 10 fellow investors guess correctly, each will receive 1,000 points)

Activity Two | Speak Your Mind

What are your thoughts on Micron Technology's earnings this time? Feel free to leave a comment and join the discussion. Comments with over 30 words that make sense can earn rewards.66 points!

Sir Earnings will also select two high-quality commenting fellow investors from all comments and give awayA Crown Bull!

Note: The prize activities will end at 4:00 AM Beijing Time on March 19th. Rewards from different activities can be stacked; rewards will be distributed uniformly after this earnings season ends.

Micron Technology's earnings are about to be released, how to deploy easily? 'Earnings Express' AI analyzes the key points, three steps to establish an options strategy>>

Ask Futubull AI: As the revenue contribution from HBM increases, how will Micron Technology's overall gross margin structure improve?

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