The US-Iran peace talks present conflicting narratives! What’s next for oil prices?

港灣家族辦公室

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The situation in the Middle East has triggered global market volatility, with the IEA approving the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves to address rising oil prices; Sino-US talks in Paris have sent a阶段性 positive signal.

Last week, global macroeconomic focus was on Paris and Washington. The first day of high-level economic talks between China and the US in Paris was described as 'quite stable,' with both sides exploring discussions on agriculture, critical minerals, and trade management, creating communication space for subsequent high-level meetings, though the summit schedule remains to be further observed. Meanwhile, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices surged over 8% for the week. To address the supply crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA), together with multiple countries, initiated the largest-ever release of oil reserves, totaling 400 million barrels. At the same time, the three major US stock indexes closed lower, and European and Asia-Pacific markets also generally weakened. In the face of energy shocks and heightened economic uncertainty, where will global capital markets head next?

Content compiled by the 'Harbor Family Office' under Henry Group. It does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Stay tuned.

Hotspot Focus >>>

– The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the impact of the Middle East situation.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release the largest amount of oil reserves in its history, totaling 400 million barrels, to address the surge in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, several countries have also announced the release of their oil reserves to counteract the impact of rising oil prices. The US Department of Energy stated it would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Japan plans to release about 80 million barrels of oil, South Korea said it would release 22.46 million barrels of oil, and Germany also indicated that it would release part of its oil reserves.

– US President Trump stated that he will coordinate with multiple countries to dispatch warships to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 14 local time, US President Trump stated that multiple countries would join the US in sending warships to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open and safe. The US will soon 'reopen, secure, and allow free passage' through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump mentioned countries such as France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK, hoping these nations would dispatch warships. The UK Ministry of Defence subsequently stated it is discussing with allies 'a range of options to ensure the safety of shipping in the region.'

– China experiences a 'Lobster Farming' craze; China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology highlights risks and offers recommendations.

'Lobster Farming' has become a recent market focus, with several Chinese local governments, including Shenzhen, and tech companies jointly promoting OpenClaw deployment. Companies such as Tencent, MiniMax, and MoonSide have all launched their OpenClaw-related products. The Cybersecurity Threat and Vulnerability Information Sharing Platform of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement stating that recent monitoring found instances of the OpenClaw open-source AI agent to be at high security risk under default or improper configurations, which could easily lead to cyberattacks and information leaks. The ministry proposed the 'Six Dos and Six Don'ts' recommendation.

– First day of talks between senior economic officials from China and the US concludes in Paris, covering discussions on multiple areas.

On March 15 local time, senior economic officials from China and the US held the first day of a two-day meeting in Paris. According to Reuters, the first day of talks between the senior economic officials from both countries was described as 'reasonably stable,' with discussions covering possible consensus areas like agriculture, critical minerals, and trade management, preparing for a potential visit by US President Trump to Beijing by the end of March.

Stock market >>>

– US Market: Major US stock indexes close lower, S&P 500 weekly loss exceeds 1.5%.

Last Friday, due to ongoing military conflicts between the US and Iran, rising oil prices pressured the US stock market initially upward before weakening, forming an inverted V-shaped trend. All three major US stock indexes closed lower, with the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index declining for three consecutive weeks. Credit market performance continued to influence the overall financial sector trend. Despite a persistent weakening trend, US stocks did not suffer a sharp drop due to volatile bond yields and credit spreads, demonstrating some resilience in the current market.

As of last Friday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 46,558.47 points; the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.61% to 6,632.19 points, losing over 1.5% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.93% to 22,105.359 points. The VIX Volatility Index fell 0.37% to 27.19 points. AI and robotics sectors led the losses on Friday's US stock market, dropping 2.14%.

Last Friday, the Mag 7 index fell 1.56%, with all its stocks declining, resulting in a 1.31% weekly loss. Meta fell 3.83%, Apple dropped 2.21%, NVIDIA and Microsoft fell over 1.5%, and Google A lost 0.42%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.76% to 7,148.21 points, gaining 2.69% for the week. Nio surged over 5%, while Canadian Solar rose more than 2%. On the individual stock side, TSMC gained 0.48%, Adobe dropped over 7.5%, and Oracle fell 2.54%. Both Adobe and Oracle have fallen over 20% cumulatively since the beginning of 2026.

– European Market: Last Friday, major European indices fell across the board, continuing a two-week downward trend.

Major European stock indices fell across the board last Friday, dragging down the weekly performance for a second consecutive week of declines. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed down 0.50% at 595.85 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.47%. The infrastructure sector faced significant pressure, with the real estate index falling over 4.3% for the week, and the construction and materials index dropping more than 2.7%, leading the declines in the STOXX 600 Index. The pan-European STOXX 50 Index closed down 0.56% at 5,716.61 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.06%.

Germany's DAX Index closed down 0.60% at 23,447.29 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.61%; the UK FTSE 100 Index closed down 0.43% at 10,261.15 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.23%; France's CAC40 Index closed down 0.91% at 7,911.53 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.03%.

– Asia-Pacific markets: Major Asia-Pacific stock markets fell broadly last Friday, with South Korea’s index dropping over 1.5%.

Last Friday, major Asia-Pacific stock markets fell broadly. By the close, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.16% to 53,819.61 points; Japan’s TOPIX Index fell 0.57% to 3,629.03 points. South Korea’s KOSPI Index dropped 1.72% to 5,487.24 points. In other markets, Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.40% to 4,836.10 points; Thailand’s SET Index dropped 1.43% to 1,409.35 points; Australia’s S&P/ASX200 Index fell 0.14% to 8,617.10 points.

– Hong Kong Stock Market: Hong Kong’s three major indices all closed lower, with both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling nearly 1%.

Last Friday, Hong Kong stocks opened lower and continued to fall, with all three major indices closing lower, and both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling nearly 1%. By the close, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.98% at 25,465.60 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.99% to 4,978.08 points; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 0.32% to 8,671.48 points. In terms of sectors, OpenClaw-related stocks generally weakened, with XunCe plummeting over 20%, and MiniMax closing down 6.83%; the semiconductor sector fell sharply, with Huahong Semiconductor closing down 7.37%, and Horizonrobot falling nearly 6%; the non-ferrous metals sector declined, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.90%, and Zijin Mining falling over 3%. Fertilizer stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, with Jiuyuan Group surging over 50%, and Dacheng Biochemical Technology rising over 12%.

– A-share Market: Last Friday, A-shares fluctuated throughout the day, with all three major indices closing lower.

Last Friday, A-shares fluctuated throughout the day, with all three major indices closing lower. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4,095.45 points; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.65% to 14,280.78 points; and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22% to 3,310.28 points. In terms of sector performance, due to the “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz, international supply chain expectations were affected, with the chemical sector continuing to show strong performance. Chuan Jinuo and Nongda Technology rose over 12%, with notable gains in fertilizer and pesticide stocks, including Lu Hua Technology and Kingenta, which hit their daily limit. The wind power concept sector strengthened, with Tongyu Heavy Industry rising nearly 20%, and Tian Neng Heavy Industry, Tianshun Wind Energy, and Dajin Heavy Industry hitting their daily limit. Stocks related to AI computing power broadly weakened, with Zhongdian Xinlong and Accelink Technologies hitting their daily limit down, and Meili Cloud and Aofei Data falling over 9%.

Bonds>>>

– US Treasuries: Last Friday, US Treasury yields fluctuated significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising about 14 basis points last week.

Last Friday, US Treasury yields fluctuated significantly following the release of key economic data, with mixed gains and losses. For the entire week, US Treasury yields overall strengthened, reaching the highest levels in nearly two months. At the New York close, the 2-year Treasury yield fell 2.38 basis points to 3.7169%, with a cumulative rise of 15.64 basis points last week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.58 basis points to 4.2767%, with an increase of approximately 14 basis points last week.

– Non-US bond markets: Eurozone government bond yields generally rose last Friday

Last Friday, the 10-year government bond yields in the Eurozone generally rose, with weekly increases of more than 10 basis points across countries. The 10-year German government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 2.983%, accumulating a rise of 12.3 basis points over the week. The 10-year French government bond yield rose by 4.3 basis points to 3.670%, up 15.6 basis points for the week. The 10-year UK government bond yield increased by 4.6 basis points to 4.820%, accumulating an increase of 19.4 basis points over the week.

– Government bonds: Government bond futures showed divergence last Friday, with long-term bonds closing lower

Last Friday, government bond futures performed differently, with long-term bonds closing lower while short-term bonds remained unchanged. At the close, the 30-year main contract fell by 0.25%, the 10-year main contract fell by 0.07%, the 5-year main contract remained at the previous trading day's level, and the 2-year main contract also remained at the previous trading day's level.

Foreign exchange >>>

– US Dollar: The US dollar index strengthened last Friday, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the week

Last Friday, the US dollar index strengthened, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the week, rising for three consecutive trading days. The ICE US dollar index returned above the 100-point mark, reaching its highest level in nearly five months. By the end of the forex market last Friday, the ICE US dollar index rose by 0.76% to 100.495 points, accumulating a gain of about 1.5% over the week. The Bloomberg US dollar index rose by 0.66% to 1,216.89 points.

– Non-US currencies: The US dollar weakened against major currencies last Friday, with the Japanese yen falling more than 1% for the week

Last Friday, the US dollar generally strengthened against major currencies. The Japanese yen fell nearly 2% over the week. By the close of the New York forex market, the US dollar rose 0.24% against the yen, trading at 159.73 yen, accumulating a gain of 1.95% over the week. The euro fell 0.83% against the US dollar to 1.1417 dollars, down 1.74% for the week; the pound fell 0.89% against the US dollar to 1.3224 dollars, down 1.41% for the week; the US dollar rose 0.67% against the Swiss franc, gaining nearly 2% over the week; the Australian dollar fell 1.36% against the US dollar, down 0.71% for the week.

– Chinese Yuan: The offshore yuan closed at 6.9065 yuan per US dollar last Friday

By the end of the New York trading session last Friday, the offshore yuan was quoted at 6.9065 yuan per US dollar, down 252 points from the previous trading day (Thursday). The onshore yuan was quoted at 6.9030 yuan per US dollar, down 278 points from the previous trading day.

– Virtual Assets: The virtual asset market saw a pullback after an initial surge last Friday, with Bitcoin's price rising by approximately 2.4%.

The virtual asset market as a whole showed a volatile upward trend last week. Last Friday during the New York tail session, Bitcoin's price surged but then pulled back, rising about 5% at one point before closing up by about 2.4%; Ethereum's price rose 2.4% last Friday.

Products >>>

– Energy: Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices rose more than 8% for the week.

Affected by the continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices surged over 8% for the week. The settlement price of US crude oil futures was reported at $98.71 per barrel, up about 3.11%, with a cumulative weekly increase of over 8.5%.

– Precious Metals: Precious metals weakened last Friday, with spot gold prices falling nearly 3% for the week.

Gold:Gold prices surged initially but then fell back last Friday, dropping over 1%. During the New York tail session, spot gold fell about 1.1%, reported at $5,022.17 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly decline of about 2.9%; US gold futures fell about 2% last Friday, reported at $5,024.40 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly decline of about 2.6%.

Metals Futures Market:Spot silver prices were reported at $80.5204 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly drop of over 4.7%; US silver futures were reported at $80.390 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly decline of over 4.6%. US copper futures were reported at $5.67 per pound, with a weekly decline of 2.36%. Spot platinum fell 5.7% for the week, and spot palladium dropped nearly 4.4% for the week.

[Disclaimer]

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