Tencent (700) Short-term Analysis: Golden Cross Formed, Resistance at HKD 580 Awaits Breakthrough

Tencent (00700.HK) has recently seen a strengthening in its share price movement, becoming a market focus. As of March 16, 2026, Tencent closed at 558 yuan, up 1.92%, with an intraday high of 565.5 yuan and a turnover reaching 12.197 billion yuan. The stock gradually rebounded from near the early-March low of 514 yuan, showing a clear breakout pattern in the short term.

Performance of the Technology Sector

Hong Kong-listed technology stocks collectively rose today, driving the Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.24% at noon. Several heavyweight tech stocks recorded significant gains: Xiaomi Group (01810) $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Surged nearly 5%, Meituan (03690) $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Up 2.9%, JD.com (09618) $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Up 1.73%, NetEase (09999) $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ Up 2.47%, Bilibili (09626) $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ Up 32.94%. Alibaba (09988) $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Up 1.06%, Baidu (09888) $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ Up 0.25%. Tech stocks rebounded broadly, creating a favorable market environment for Tencent.

Technical Analysis

From the chart trend, Tencent's stock price rebounded from the low of HK$514 in early March, and recently showed an important bullish signal: the 10-day moving average (about HK$531) has crossed above the 20-day moving average, forming a 'Golden Cross.' This typically indicates that the stock price may start an upward trend according to technical analysis.

The current stock price has stabilized above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, showing strengthening short-term momentum. On the upside, the first resistance level is at HK$579 (near the 60-day moving average). If it breaks through, the next resistance will be at HK$611. For downside support, the first line of defense is at HK$531 (where the Golden Cross formed), and if it fails, the next support is at HK$514 (the early March low). Regarding technical indicators, the RSI is at 54, not overheated, with nine buy signals dominating, indicating that short-term momentum remains strong.

In short, Tencent is currently in a strong bullish pattern supported by the 'Golden Cross,' and may challenge the HK$580 level in the short term, but attention should be paid to the pressure at the HK$579 resistance level.

Review of Warrant Products

Several Tencent-related derivative products mentioned on March 12, 2026, recorded significant increases over the following two trading days (up to March 16). During this period, Tencent's underlying stock rose 2.93%, while related bullish products demonstrated strong leverage effects: BOC Bull (62650) $BI#TENCTRC2612K.C (62650.HK)$ rose 21%, being the most outstanding performer, while BOC Call Warrant (26418) $BITENCT@EC2608E.C (26418.HK)$ Up 20%, UBS Group $UB#TENCTRC26076.C (59949.HK)$ Bull certificates rose 18%, Guotai Junan call warrants (23121) $GJTENCT@EC2607A.C (23121.HK)$ Also increased by 16%.

Warrant product recommendations and comparisons

With Tencent's current share price at the HKD 562.5 level, combined with support levels of HKD 531 and HKD 514, and resistance levels at HKD 579 and HKD 611, investors can choose suitable products based on their own views.

For bullish strategies, investors may consider Societe Generale call warrants (26235) and BNP Paribas call warrants (25920). The Societe Generale call warrant (26235) has an exercise price of HKD 660.5, providing about 8.2 times leverage. Its key advantage is that its premium is the lowest among similar products while maintaining a higher leverage level, making it an ideal choice for cost-conscious investors. The BNP Paribas call warrant (25920) has an exercise price of HKD 660, offering approximately 8 times leverage, with relatively low implied volatility, effectively reducing volatility risk, which makes it suitable for investors focused on volatility levels. These two products have exercise prices around HKD 660, which are approximately 17.4% out-of-the-money based on the current share price, making them suitable for more aggressive investors who expect the stock price to break through HKD 611.

For bull certificates, UBS bull certificate (56973) may be considered $UB#TENCTRC26084.C (56973.HK)$ and Bank of China bull certificate (56756) $BI#TENCTRC2612N.C (56756.HK)$ The UBS bull certificate (56973) has a recovery price of HKD 521, providing up to 11.8 times actual leverage, making it the highest-leveraged option in bullish strategies. Its recovery price is slightly below the first support level of HKD 531, making it suitable for short-term capture of breakout trends. The Bank of China bull certificate (56756) has a recovery price of HKD 520 and offers 10 times leverage, with a higher safety margin, making it suitable for conservative investors. From the review of warrant products, the Bank of China bull certificate (62650), deployed on March 12, recorded a 21% gain when the underlying stock rose, demonstrating the leverage effect of bull certificates. $BI#TENCTRC2612K.C (62650.HK)$

For bullish product selection, two options stand out: if cost-effectiveness is the priority, Societe Generale call warrant (26235) has the lowest premium and high leverage, making it the top choice; for those seeking maximum leverage and willing to accept the risk of forced recall, UBS bull contract (56973) offers an actual leverage of 11.8 times, which is highly attractive.

For bearish strategies, put warrants worth considering include Bank of China put warrant (23122). $BITENCT@EP2606A.P (23122.HK)$ And UBS put warrant (21984). The Bank of China put warrant (23122) has a strike price of HKD 499.8 with leverage of 9.4 times. This product has the lowest premium, with implied volatility and leverage both being relatively ideal, offering the most comprehensive terms, making it suitable for bearish strategies. The UBS put warrant (21984) also has a strike price of HKD 499.8 and leverage of 8.8 times, with relatively low implied volatility, effectively controlling volatility risk. When selecting put warrants, it's important to note that the strike price of HKD 499.8 is below the current stock price, meaning these are out-of-the-money products. If the stock price falls below the support level of HKD 531, such products will perform more ideally.

For bear contracts, consider Societe Generale bear contract (58381). $SG#TENCTRP28127.P (58381.HK)$ And Bank of ** contract (57847). The Societe Generale bear contract (58381) has a recall price of HKD 585 and actual leverage as high as 24.5 times, making it the highest-leverage option for bearish deployment. The recall price is slightly above the first resistance level at HKD 579, offering a close-range strategy suitable for short-term bearish plays. The Bank of ** contract (57847) has a recall price of HKD 585 and actual leverage of 21.6 times, also offering significant leverage with relatively low premium. When choosing bear contracts, be aware that if the stock price quickly breaks above HKD 579, there is a risk of the product being recalled. More conservative investors may consider products with recall prices above HKD 600.

For bearish product selection, two options stand out: if prioritizing comprehensive terms, the Bank of China put warrant (23122) has the lowest premium and high leverage, making it the preferred choice; for those seeking extremely high leverage and willing to accept recall risks, the Societe Generale bear contract (58381) offers an actual leverage of 24.5 times, making it the top choice for short-term bearish leverage.

Overall, Tencent’s stock price is currently in a technical breakout phase. With the positive signal from a golden cross, it could potentially challenge the HKD 580 mark. Fundamentally, active capital inflows and overall recovery in the tech sector provide support, but pressure from the HKD 579 resistance level should be monitored. Investors should choose products with suitable terms based on their outlook on the market and pay attention to the degree of being out-of-the-money and the distance between recall prices and key support/resistance levels.

Interactive Questions:

What do you readers think about Tencent's (00700) short-term trend?

A) Break through the HKD 579 resistance and further test HKD 611

B) Consolidate within the range of HKD 531 to HKD 579

C) The upward movement faced resistance, and it may retest the support levels at 531 yuan or even 514 yuan.

Feel free to share your views in the comment section!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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