CATL leads the rise in the new energy sector, with 569 yuan and 689 yuan becoming short-term key levels

Annual report shows a 42% increase in net profit! CATL surges nearly 10%, technical indicators show comprehensive strengthening

CATL (03750.HK) $CATL (03750.HK)$ The recent stock price trend of CATL has been strong, showing a significant breakout pattern and becoming a market focus. As of March 16, 2026, CATL closed at 664 yuan, surging 6.92%, with an intraday high of 665 yuan, continuing to hit a new all-time high since its listing. Since the earnings announcement in early March, the stock has accumulated a rise of over 30%, rising for five consecutive days, drawing heated market attention.

The Hong Kong-listed new energy vehicle and lithium battery sectors generally rose today. As of March 16, BYD Co., Ltd. (01211) $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ rose more than 5%, Nio-SW (09866) $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Up over 5%, Xiaomi Group (01810) $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ rose more than 4%, while other stocks like Seres (09927) and Li Auto (02015) $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ , Geely Auto (00175) $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ also followed the upward trend. In terms of chip stocks, Huahong Semiconductor (01347) $HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$ rose more than 5%, while GigaDevice (03986) surged over 10%.

Technical Analysis Summary

From a technical perspective, CATL's stock price started to climb in late February, with an evident acceleration and breakout recently. According to technical data as of March 16, CATL’s first support level is around 569 yuan, close to the breakout platform from early March and near the 10-day moving average; the second key support level is at 531 yuan, corresponding to the top of the consolidation range in late February. If the stock price can hold steady and continue upward, the first resistance level will be seen at 689 yuan, which is a psychological level and near a round number; if it breaks through successfully, the next resistance level will look towards 770 yuan.

The moving average structure shows that the short-term 5-day moving average has crossed above the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, forming a bullish alignment, while the 10-day moving average has also started to accelerate upwards, reflecting increasing short-term rebound momentum. The stock price is currently standing firmly above all short-term moving averages, with the 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages displaying an upward divergence, indicating a gradually strengthening mid-term trend. Regarding technical indicators, the overall signal is “sell,” with 10 sell signals. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 77, multiple oscillation indicators show neutral signals, and stochastic oscillators and Williams %R both indicate overbought conditions and issue sell signals. Meanwhile, trend-following indicators such as the bull-bear power indicator and Ichimoku Cloud show buy signals, and MACD also indicates buy, while Bollinger Bands suggest buy. Overall, the current technical signals show a “strong breakout but short-term overbought” pattern, with a strong stock price trend, but the RSI is already at a high of 77, warranting caution for potential short-term technical pullbacks.

Summary of Hong Kong Stock Podcast Views

Reviewing the analysis from the [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] on March 11, the show pointed out that CATL's stock movement was very strong, with its price skyrocketing like a rocket. The RSI indicator had risen above 80, which is rare over the past two to three months, reflecting significant short-term overbought conditions. The stock price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band. Technically, if the uptrend continues, the first resistance level will be at HKD 614.84, followed by HKD 651. The program specifically noted that short-term sell signals currently dominate, with 10 sell signals and 5 buy signals. There is market divergence on whether it will challenge the previous high of HKD 614, and some funds have opted to buy back bearish warrants with a recovery price of HKD 550, indicating market uncertainty about future trends. From today's stock performance, the resistance at HKD 651 has been successfully breached, with the next targets being HKD 689 and HKD 770.

March 11 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, Nio, Geely Auto, Tencent, CNOOC

Warrant Product Review

Regarding the review of warrant products, several CATL-related derivatives mentioned on March 11, 2026, showed significant performance in the following two trading days (up to March 13). During this period, the underlying stock CATL rose by 3.59%, while related bullish products fully demonstrated the leverage effect: Societe Generale Bull (55713) and HSBC Bull (55290) both surged by 20%, UBS Call Warrant (22841) performed most prominently, rising by 41%, and Bank of China Call Warrant (13229) also increased by 24%. Data shows that although the underlying stock’s increase was limited, the gains of related derivatives were significantly higher than the underlying stock's rise, which is a core feature of leveraged products – amplifying returns during stock volatility.

Given CATL's current stock price at HKD 650.5, along with the support levels at HKD 569 and HKD 531, and resistance levels at HKD 689 and HKD 770, investors can choose appropriate warrant and bull/bear products based on their own views.

Investors who are optimistic that CATL will continue its strong momentum and break through the HKD 689 resistance or even test HKD 770 may consider two call warrant products. UBS Call Warrant (22841) $UB-CATL@EC2605A.C (22841.HK)$ with a strike price of HKD 639.88, offering approximately 7.1 times leverage, this product has the lowest premium and higher leverage, suitable for cost-effective and bullish strategies. At the current stock price, the product is slightly in-the-money with an out-of-the-money degree of about -1.6%, meaning it has intrinsic value and higher sensitivity to stock price increases. As seen from the warrant product review, the UBS Call Warrant (22841) deployed on March 11 recorded a 41% gain when the underlying stock rose, far exceeding other products, demonstrating its high leverage advantage. Another option is the Bank of China Call Warrant (13229) $BI-CATL@EC2609A.C (13229.HK)$ with a strike price of HKD 629.38, offering 5 times leverage, this product has relatively low premiums, with an out-of-the-money degree of about -3.3%, also in-the-money status, suitable for conservative deployment.

For investors who are bearish on CATL’s outlook and believe that the stock price is overbought in the short term and needs a pullback, they can consider the UBS Put Warrant (27083) $UB-CATL@EP2703A.P (27083.HK)$ with a strike price of HKD 550.88, offering 1.9 times leverage, this product has the lowest premium, making it suitable for bearish deployment. When selecting put warrants, note that the strike price of HKD 550.88 is below the current stock price, classifying it as an out-of-the-money product. If the stock price breaks below the support level of HKD 569, such products would perform more ideally.

For bull/bear certificate deployment, optimistic investors can consider the UBS Bull Certificate (57831) $UB#CATL RC2609D.C (57831.HK)$ with a recovery price of HKD 535, offering actual leverage of 5 times, this product has the highest actual leverage and the lowest premium. When choosing bull certificates, ensure the recovery price is lower than the support levels at HKD 569 and HKD 531 to provide sufficient safety buffer. The recovery price of HKD 535 is below the first support level of HKD 569, providing ample margin of safety, suitable for investors optimistic about the future.

It is important to note that as CATL's share price has been performing well for consecutive days, most of the related call warrants in the market have shifted from 'out-of-the-money to in-the-money'. Investors should be aware that the currently relatively out-of-the-money CATL call warrants mostly have shorter maturities, with some expiring by the end of April or even March. In addition to the significant time decay when holding them overnight, attention should also be paid to the increasing hedging difficulty for issuers as the expiration date approaches, which might affect their pricing activity.

Overall, CATL’s stock price is currently in a strong breakout phase, successfully reclaiming the RMB 650 level, while the RMB 689 resistance will determine the short-term direction. Fundamentally, there are many positive factors including impressive earnings, high capacity utilization, and institutional buying. However, the technical indicator RSI is at a high of 77, indicating potential short-term overbought pressure. Investors should strictly control risk when deploying capital, selecting appropriate derivatives based on key support levels at RMB 569 and RMB 531, and resistance levels at RMB 689 and RMB 770, while paying attention to the impact of out-of-the-money levels on product performance and the effect of conversion ratios on warrant prices.

Interactive Questions:

Dear readers, do you think CATL (03750) can successfully break through the RMB 689 resistance level in the short term and further test the RMB 770 level?

A) Yes, benefiting from impressive earnings and institutional buying, the strong momentum will continue.

B) No, the RSI is in the overbought region at 77 and needs consolidation first, potentially retesting the RMB 569 support level.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section!

In your opinion, when choosing call warrants, are in-the-money products more advantageous? Would you prioritize higher-leverage products like UBS Group 22841 or more stable products like BOC 13229? Feel free to leave comments and share your experience!

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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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