The technical aspect of the Hang Seng Index shows a 'price weak, signal strong' divergence intensifying, with expectations for a short-term rebound on the rise.

On the previous day (March 13), the overall Hong Kong stock market was weak, with most blue-chip stocks falling but technical signals leaning bullish. Warrants showed active performance, and the short-term market is in a phase of fluctuation while rebound expectations are rising.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The index closed at 25,482.5 points, down 0.91% in a single day, with a turnover of 246.542 billion Hong Kong dollars. Overall market sentiment remained cautious. From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index's technical signal was 'buy', with a signal strength of 7, forming a clear divergence from the day’s downward trend. This highlights the market’s most prominent technical feature: price weakness combined with strong signals, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may have been exhausted, and a foundation for a rebound is gradually solidifying.

The Hang Seng Index support levels are at 25,068 points and 24,174 points, while resistance levels are at 26,266 points and 26,881 points. Currently, the share price is trading between short-term support and resistance, in a phase of volatile bottom searching, without any clear trend breakout.

On March 13, key blue-chip stocks showed mixed performance, with 4 rising and 6 falling. HSBC Holdings (00005) and AIA saw relatively large declines, dropping by 4.97% and 3.02%, respectively, while China Mobile (00941) rose against the trend by 1.20%, showing relatively strong performance. Based on technical indicators, they can be divided into three categories for investors' quick reference:

1. "Buy" signal (7 stocks): Alibaba (09988), Meituan (03690), Xiaomi Group (01810), HKEX (00388), Ping An (02318), AIA (01299), and China Mobile (00941). These 7 stocks all show characteristics of 'price drop but buy signal' or 'mild rebound with a buy signal.' For example, Meituan's stock price slightly dropped, but its RSI is only 34, close to the oversold zone, suggesting potential for a technical rebound; China Mobile has moved above short- and medium-term moving averages, with an RSI at a neutral level, further strengthening the buy signal.

2. "Neutral" signal (2 stocks): Tencent (00700), HSBC Holdings (00005). Tencent stands above MA10 and MA30 but below MA60, with an RSI of 54, indicating a neutral-to-strong stance; the market shows significant divergence over its short-term direction. After a sharp decline, HSBC’s RSI is 38, giving a neutral technical signal, and its short-term trend requires further observation.

3. "Sell" signal (1 stock): China Construction Bank (00939), the only blue-chip stock with a sell signal. Its stock price is oscillating narrowly between moving averages, with an RSI of 48 near the neutral zone, suggesting caution regarding short-term pullback risks.

Most stocks are still below key moving averages, and the overall trend remains unchanged. Avoid blindly following trading signals; instead, consider your position sizing and timing.

Review and Selection of Warrants and Bull/Bear Products: Outstanding performance, and selecting products requires attention to detail.

Let’s first review the warrant and bull/bear products recommended earlier. The four Hang Seng Index-related products recommended on March 9, 2026, performed well. Specifically, the BOC bull certificate (68351) surged 55% in two days, while the HSBC call warrant (23723) gained 18%, both aligning with the Hang Seng Index's rebound rhythm. This demonstrates that choosing the right product can effectively capture short-term volatility opportunities.

Here are two high-cost-performance warrant and bull/bear products, suitable for investors focusing on short-term fluctuations in the Hang Seng Index:

1. HSBC Warrants (23723): Leverage of 16, strike price 26733. The core advantage is that both premium and implied volatility are the lowest, offering excellent value for money. Suitable for investors who are optimistic about a short-term rebound in the Hang Seng Index and seek stable leveraged returns.

2. BOC Bull Certificate (68351): Leverage of 23.2, stop-loss price at 24450. With relatively high leverage, it is suitable for investors confident in a rebound in the Hang Seng Index and able to withstand certain fluctuations.

Risk Warning: Warrant and bull/bear products experience significant volatility. Investors should closely monitor exercise prices, stop-loss levels, and leverage changes. Manage positions prudently to avoid excessive speculation.

Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase within a downtrend. The widespread buy signals from technical indicators diverge from falling stock prices, which could be a technical sign of nearing a short-term bottom. In terms of strategy, closely watch stocks with buy signals and solid fundamentals for phased accumulation. Remain cautious toward sell-signal stocks like China Construction Bank and avoid blindly entering. For warrant investments, carefully select products by paying close attention to premiums and reasonable leverage—avoid overextending.

The Hang Seng Index is showing weak prices but strong signals. Do you think there will be a short-term rebound? A. Yes, the signals have been strong enough. B. No, it will continue to test lower levels. C. Hard to say. Feel free to share your insights in the comments section.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#HongKongStocks #HangSengIndex #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #TencentHoldings #BlueChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis

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