Next Thursday's earnings focus on AI commercialization, Alibaba's stock price recovers above the 10-day line, challenging resistance at $143

Hong Kong tech stocks continue to recover driven by AI concepts and bullish calls from major banks. As of the afternoon of March 13, 2026, Alibaba (09988) was trading at $133.4, up approximately 1.37%, with a turnover of $4.61 billion and a 5-day volatility of 8.2%. The intraday high and low were $134.6 and $130.4 respectively.

In market news, a large non-automated trade was recorded at 10:58 AM today (March 13), involving 300,000 shares at $134.2 per share, 2% higher than the previous closing price, amounting to $40.26 million. Morgan Stanley’s latest research report upgraded Alibaba to a top pick in the industry, noting that despite current short-term profit pressures, Alibaba has significantly increased its likelihood of becoming an AI industry leader due to its comprehensive technology layout in full-stack artificial intelligence, particularly its deep reserves of self-developed chips. Tencent Cloud's HunYuan series of large models have announced changes in pricing strategy, with some models seeing price hikes as high as 463%, indicating that the deep waters of commercialization for domestic AI large models have arrived. Bloomberg Intelligence noted that as AI service applications increase, cloud-related revenue growth momentum is expected to continue, while capital expenditures may remain at higher levels to support cloud computing and AI infrastructure construction. Additionally, Alibaba will announce its latest quarterly earnings next Thursday (the 19th), with the market paying attention to adjusted EBITA performance and e-commerce business expansion progress.

From a technical perspective, Alibaba's stock price is currently trading at $133.6, having reclaimed the 10-day moving average ($131.87), but remains constrained by the 30-day moving average ($148.73) and the 60-day moving average ($151.13). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36, approaching oversold territory, suggesting that short-term downward momentum may weaken, with technical rebound needs accumulating. Notably, multiple indicators such as the VR trading ratio and bull-bear power indicator are signaling buy signals, showing buying support at lower levels, with combined indicator signals pointing to “buy,” strength level 8, increasing short-term rebound expectations. However, stochastic oscillation and CCI indicators remain neutral, while the MACD signal indicates sell, reflecting possible fluctuations in the short-term trend.

In terms of support and resistance levels, the immediate key support is at $126.7, which is an important short-term defense line. If breached, the stock would test the critical support area at $118. Resistance is concentrated at $143.2 and $152.6, with $143.2 being the primary target for a short-term rebound. It is worth noting that the stock price has been consolidating near the $130 mark recently, gradually digesting earlier declines, and if trading volume supports, a technical recovery could unfold. With the latest stock price at $133.6, situated between the support at $126.7 and resistance at $143.2, short-term operations should treat this range as volatile, looking to accumulate on dips or await breakout signals.

Reviewing the performance of warrant products, the four Alibaba bearish products we mentioned on March 10 performed well in the subsequent two days, effectively capturing the correction in the underlying stock. BNP Paribas Bear Certificate (68876) and J.P. Morgan Bear Certificate (69024) $JP#ALIBARP2809H.P (69024.HK)$ Recorded a 15% increase two days after being mentioned, while the underlying stock fell by 1.42% during the same period; DBS put warrant (20535) $DSALIBA@EP2606A.P (20535.HK)$ Rose by 6%; BOC put warrant (20584) gained 10%. All four showed gains higher than the drop in the underlying stock, demonstrating the leverage effect of derivatives. Among them, bear contracts performed more prominently, reflecting that products with closer knock-out prices to the current price are more sensitive to fluctuations in the underlying stock.

In terms of deploying warrant and bull-bear certificate products, investors can choose from the following products based on their own risk preferences, in conjunction with the current support and resistance levels.

Regarding call warrants, HSBC call warrant (26604) $HSALIBA@EC2608F.C (26604.HK)$ The exercise price is 150.09 yuan, providing about 5.5x leverage; BOC call warrant (26562) has the same exercise price of 150.09 yuan, offering approximately 5.4x leverage. This exercise price correlates with the key resistance level at 152.6 yuan, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through this resistance and recover upward. Comparing the two, the HSBC call warrant (26604) has the advantage of the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering stronger downside protection for valuation-sensitive investors; whereas the BOC call warrant (26562) also has relatively low implied volatility, presenting a similar valuation advantage.

As for put warrants, HSBC put warrant (20573) $HSALIBA@EP2606A.P (20573.HK)$ The exercise price is 129.9 yuan, providing about 5.1x leverage; BOC put warrant (20584) $BIALIBA@EP2606A.P (20584.HK)$ Has the same exercise price of 129.9 yuan, offering approximately 5.3x leverage. This exercise price correlates with the key support level at 126.7 yuan, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to be capped by resistance and retreat to test support. Both have the advantage of relatively lower implied volatility, offering stronger downside protection for valuation-sensitive investors.

For bull contracts, UBS Group bull contract (54590) $UB#ALIBARC2608F.C (54590.HK)$ The recovery price is 120 yuan, providing approximately 8.3x actual leverage; UBS Group bull contract (53784) has a recovery price of 121.4 yuan, offering about 9.3x actual leverage, with the lowest premium. This recovery price is below the primary support level of 126.7 yuan, providing sufficient buffer space, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to stabilize and rebound at the 126.7 yuan support level. Comparing the two, UBS Group bull contract (53784) offers higher actual leverage and better premium control, making it more attractive to investors seeking amplified effects.

For bear contracts, Morgan Stanley bear contract (69024) $JP#ALIBARP2809H.P (69024.HK)$The recovery price is set at HK$144, offering approximately 11.9x effective leverage with the lowest premium; BNP Paribas bear contract (68876) has the same recovery price of HK$144 and offers about 11.7x effective leverage, with the highest effective leverage and relatively lower premium. This recovery price correlates to a key resistance level above the current stock price at HK$143.2, making it suitable for investors who expect the stock price rebound to be constrained by this resistance. Comparing the two, Morgan Stanley's bear contract (69024) shows better premium control, while BNP Paribas' bear contract (68876) offers slightly higher effective leverage, both catering to investors pursuing different risk appetites in bearish strategies.

In summary, investors optimistic about Alibaba’s technical rebound may consider HSBC call warrants (26604) to capture breakout opportunities or UBS bull contracts (53784) for higher-leveraged deployment; whereas bearish investors could opt for Bank of China put warrants (20584) to hedge downside risks or Morgan Stanley bear contracts (69024) to capture pullback opportunities with maximum leverage.

Interactive Questions:

Dear readers, Alibaba (09988) has been upgraded as Morgan Stanley's top pick, with its RSI at 36 nearing oversold levels. Do you think it can successfully reclaim the resistance level at HK$143.2 in the short term?

A) Yes, acceleration in AI commercialization combined with earnings expectations may trigger a rebound.

B) No, consolidation within the range of HK$126 to HK$140 is needed first; a decision should be made after the earnings announcement.

C) Will first observe support around the HK$130 level, then consider following up if stabilized.

Feel free to leave a comment and share your trading strategy!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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