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港股窩輪Jenny
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SMIC (00981) has fallen for three consecutive days. Can the key support level trigger a rebound?

$SMIC (00981.HK)$ The stock price has shown weakness recently, with the latest price at HKD 61.85, down by 1.98. Based on the moving averages, the stock price has broken below the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is at HKD 62.56, the 30-day moving average is at HKD 67.99, and the 60-day moving average is at HKD 70.38, indicating weak short-, medium-, and long-term trends. However, the 5-day volatility reached 11.8%, reflecting active trading and fierce competition between bulls and bears.
Technical indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, close to the oversold region, suggesting that selling pressure may gradually ease. The Stochastic Oscillator is issuing a sell signal, showing weak short-term momentum; while the CCI indicator remains neutral without providing clear direction. Other indicators such as the Williams %R are also neutral, but the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is giving a buy signal. The Bull-Bear Power indicator even suggests 'severely oversold, possible bottoming out, buy,' offering some hope for future performance.
In terms of key levels, the first support is at HKD 59.6, and the second support is at HKD 54.2; on the resistance side, the first resistance is at HKD 66.1, and the second resistance is at HKD 69.8. If the stock price can stabilize near the HKD 59.6 support level, it may challenge the HKD 66.1 resistance level. Conversely, if it breaks below this support, it could drop further to HKD 54.2.
Morgan Stanley’s latest report on China’s AI GPU industry shows that over the past 12 months, substantial progress has been achieved in overcoming bottlenecks in equipment and semiconductor foundry sectors. With policy support, China's foundry capacity and chip supply are expected to meet core domestic demands by 2028. The report highlights that policy backing accelerates early-stage development, but long-term growth still depends on commercial competitiveness. Currently, China’s AI data centers have gained a notable competitive advantage in total cost of ownership (TCO), thanks to lower chip prices, electricity costs, and continually improving infrastructure. In particular, the focus on inference workloads prioritizes cost per token over ultimate performance, amplifying the competitiveness of local solutions. Morgan Stanley believes that China’s localization strategy—expanding scale in chips, foundries, and equipment to offset process technology disadvantages—is proving effective. By 2030, China's AI chip market is projected to reach USD 67 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% from 2024 to 2030, and self-sufficiency is expected to rise to 76%.
In terms of industry prospects, an optimistic scenario sees domestic GPU products expanding into training applications and achieving overseas sales, while a pessimistic scenario could lead to industry consolidation due to the fading of differentiation advantages. The bank remains bullish on SMIC, $NAURA Technology Group (002371.SZ)$ , ASMPT $ASMPT (00522.HK)$ other AI semiconductor supply chain stocks, as well as Chinese internet platforms venturing into AI chip businesses.
$SMIC (00981.HK)$ The stock price has shown weakness recently, with the latest price at HKD 61.85, down by 1.98. Based on the moving averages, the stock price has broken below the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is at HKD 62.56, the 30-day moving average is at HKD 67.99, and the 60-day moving average is at HKD 70.38, indicating weak short-, medium-, and long-term trends. However, the 5-day volatility reached 11.8%, reflecting active trading and fierce competition between bulls and bears. Technical indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, close to the oversold region, suggesting that selling pressure may gradually ease. The Stochastic Oscillator is issuing a sell signal, showing weak short-term momentum; while the CCI indicator remains neutral without providing clear direction. Other indicators such as the Williams %R are also neutral, but the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is giving a buy signal. The Bull-Bear Power indicator even suggests 'severely oversold, possible bottoming out, buy,' offering some hope for future performance. In terms of key levels, the first support is at HKD 59.6, and the second support is at HKD 54.2; on the resistance side, the first resistance is at HKD 66.1, and the second resistance is at HKD 69.8. If the stock price can stabilize near the HKD 59.6 support level, it may challenge the HKD 66.1 resistance level. Conversely, if it breaks below this support, it could drop further to HKD 54.2. Morgan Stanley’s latest report on China's AI GPU industry shows that over the past 12 months, significant progress has been made in overcoming bottlenecks in equipment and semiconductor foundry sectors...
$SMIC (00981.HK)$ The stock price has shown weakness recently, with the latest price at HKD 61.85, down by 1.98. Based on the moving averages, the stock price has broken below the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is at HKD 62.56, the 30-day moving average is at HKD 67.99, and the 60-day moving average is at HKD 70.38, indicating weak short-, medium-, and long-term trends. However, the 5-day volatility reached 11.8%, reflecting active trading and fierce competition between bulls and bears. Technical indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, close to the oversold region, suggesting that selling pressure may gradually ease. The Stochastic Oscillator is issuing a sell signal, showing weak short-term momentum; while the CCI indicator remains neutral without providing clear direction. Other indicators such as the Williams %R are also neutral, but the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is giving a buy signal. The Bull-Bear Power indicator even suggests 'severely oversold, possible bottoming out, buy,' offering some hope for future performance. In terms of key levels, the first support is at HKD 59.6, and the second support is at HKD 54.2; on the resistance side, the first resistance is at HKD 66.1, and the second resistance is at HKD 69.8. If the stock price can stabilize near the HKD 59.6 support level, it may challenge the HKD 66.1 resistance level. Conversely, if it breaks below this support, it could drop further to HKD 54.2. Morgan Stanley’s latest report on China's AI GPU industry shows that over the past 12 months, significant progress has been made in overcoming bottlenecks in equipment and semiconductor foundry sectors...
Market Review
After being mentioned on March 11, SMIC fell a cumulative 2.75% over two days, with related bearish derivatives recording substantial gains across the board. Among them, $UB#SMIC RP2812D.P (58818.HK)$ rose 18% over two days, $SG#SMIC RP2812V.P (58384.HK)$ also climbed 17%; put warrants performed particularly well, $UB-SMIC@EP2606A.P (15954.HK)$ 、 $BI-SMIC@EP2606A.P (21281.HK)$ both registering a 13% increase.
$SMIC (00981.HK)$ The stock price has shown weakness recently, with the latest price at HKD 61.85, down by 1.98. Based on the moving averages, the stock price has broken below the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is at HKD 62.56, the 30-day moving average is at HKD 67.99, and the 60-day moving average is at HKD 70.38, indicating weak short-, medium-, and long-term trends. However, the 5-day volatility reached 11.8%, reflecting active trading and fierce competition between bulls and bears. Technical indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, close to the oversold region, suggesting that selling pressure may gradually ease. The Stochastic Oscillator is issuing a sell signal, showing weak short-term momentum; while the CCI indicator remains neutral without providing clear direction. Other indicators such as the Williams %R are also neutral, but the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is giving a buy signal. The Bull-Bear Power indicator even suggests 'severely oversold, possible bottoming out, buy,' offering some hope for future performance. In terms of key levels, the first support is at HKD 59.6, and the second support is at HKD 54.2; on the resistance side, the first resistance is at HKD 66.1, and the second resistance is at HKD 69.8. If the stock price can stabilize near the HKD 59.6 support level, it may challenge the HKD 66.1 resistance level. Conversely, if it breaks below this support, it could drop further to HKD 54.2. Morgan Stanley’s latest report on China's AI GPU industry shows that over the past 12 months, significant progress has been made in overcoming bottlenecks in equipment and semiconductor foundry sectors...
For investors who believe that the stock price will rebound at key support levels, call warrants and bull contracts can be considered. Among them, $BI-SMIC@EC2609B.C (19343.HK)$ has an exercise price of 69.04 yuan, characterized by having the lowest premium among similar products, along with relatively ideal implied volatility and leverage (4.2x), enabling it to efficiently track the underlying stock's rebound. For those seeking higher leverage and willing to bear the risk of forced recall, $JP#SMIC RC2609A.C (69013.HK)$ provides approximately 6.6x actual leverage with the forced recall level set at 54 yuan, close to the second support level (54.2 yuan), offering high capital efficiency but requiring close attention to forced recall risks.
If the stock price rebound is deemed weak and likely to test lower support levels, consider put warrants or bear certificates.$BI-SMIC@EP2609D.P (26417.HK)$The exercise price is 51.0 yuan, offering the lowest premium, suitable for investors who are bearish but want to limit risk to the premium. For high-leverage bearish trades,$SG#SMIC RP2812G.P (68523.HK)$With Rui$UB#SMIC RP2812E.P (69150.HK)$Both UBS Group and [missing entity] offer approximately 12.4 times actual leverage, with the same recovery price of 67 yuan, which is close to the first resistance level of 66.1 yuan, providing a good defensive buffer. Among them, UBS Group's bear certificate has a lower premium, making it slightly more favorable.
$SMIC (00981.HK)$ The stock price has shown weakness recently, with the latest price at HKD 61.85, down by 1.98. Based on the moving averages, the stock price has broken below the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is at HKD 62.56, the 30-day moving average is at HKD 67.99, and the 60-day moving average is at HKD 70.38, indicating weak short-, medium-, and long-term trends. However, the 5-day volatility reached 11.8%, reflecting active trading and fierce competition between bulls and bears. Technical indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, close to the oversold region, suggesting that selling pressure may gradually ease. The Stochastic Oscillator is issuing a sell signal, showing weak short-term momentum; while the CCI indicator remains neutral without providing clear direction. Other indicators such as the Williams %R are also neutral, but the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is giving a buy signal. The Bull-Bear Power indicator even suggests 'severely oversold, possible bottoming out, buy,' offering some hope for future performance. In terms of key levels, the first support is at HKD 59.6, and the second support is at HKD 54.2; on the resistance side, the first resistance is at HKD 66.1, and the second resistance is at HKD 69.8. If the stock price can stabilize near the HKD 59.6 support level, it may challenge the HKD 66.1 resistance level. Conversely, if it breaks below this support, it could drop further to HKD 54.2. Morgan Stanley’s latest report on China's AI GPU industry shows that over the past 12 months, significant progress has been made in overcoming bottlenecks in equipment and semiconductor foundry sectors...
SMIC, Northern Huacreate, and other stocks have recently experienced significant volatility. Do you believe the long-term growth logic of the AI industry can support the valuation of related companies? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'HK Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$The recent volatility of individual stocks is quite noticeable. Do you think the long-term growth logic of the AI industry can support the valuations of related companies? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more market analysis, please continue to follow the daily updates from "Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny"!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#Hong Kong Stocks #Hang Seng Index #Real-time Analysis #Warrants Selection #Warrants Strategy #Derivatives Hedging #Hong Kong Warrants Jenny #SMIC #00981 #Semiconductor# $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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