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[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Goldwind Technologies, Chalco, Pop Mart, Xiaomi - Post-market analysis on March 12

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,716.76 points, down 182 points for the day, representing a decline of approximately 0.7%. Observing the recent trend, the index has retreated again after an earlier rebound and is now trading below several short- to medium-term moving averages, indicating that short-term market momentum has weakened, and investor sentiment is gradually turning cautious.

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index is currently below the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is around 25,777 points, the 20-day moving average is near 26,287 points, and the 50-day moving average is around 26,527 points. This arrangement of moving averages typically indicates that both short-term and medium-term trends are in an adjustment phase, making it difficult for the market to sustain a continuous upward movement unless the index can regain a foothold above the 10-day line.

In terms of momentum indicators, the 9-day RSI is at 42.98, retreating from neutral territory to a weaker level. Although the RSI has not yet entered oversold territory, it already reflects a weakening in buying momentum. Therefore, in the short term, the index is more likely to remain volatile or gradually seek support.

Based on technical positioning, the first resistance level in the short term is near 25,780 points, which corresponds to the 10-day moving average. If the index can stabilize above this zone, there may be an opportunity for improvement in the short-term trend. The next significant resistance area lies near 26,300 points, corresponding to the 20-day moving average; breaking through this region would provide a chance to retest the 26,500-point area (the 50-day moving average).

On the support side, the first short-term support level can be referenced at around 25,500 points. If it breaks below this area, the next significant support is approximately near 25,200 points; if market correction deepens, there may be an opportunity to test further down towards the 25,000-point psychological level.

If observing from the perspective of short-term risk-reward ratio, the current index position is close to the 25,500-point support zone. If using 25,500 points as a short-term defensive line, and aiming for a rebound target initially at 25,780 points, the upside potential and downside risk are roughly balanced, thus providing some technical rebound opportunities in the support zone. However, if the 25,500-point level is breached, the downside could extend to 25,200 points or even 25,000 points, causing the short-term risk-reward ratio to shift significantly towards a bearish direction.

Under this technical structure, for Hang Seng Index bull and bear certificate deployment, investors generally need to pay more attention to the distance of the call price and risk control. If investors believe that the 25,500-point support zone might see a technical rebound, they can consider bull certificates with a call price around or below 25,000 points. Such products still have a buffer from the current price, making them less likely to be immediately triggered for forced redemption even if the index experiences short-term volatility, suitable for expecting a market rebound but still facing fluctuation risks.

Conversely, if investors judge that the market remains in an adjustment phase and might break through the 25,500-point support, then bear certificates could be considered as a deployment direction. When choosing bear certificates, products with call prices around 26,200 to 26,500 points can usually be observed. This area is generally above the 20-day and 50-day moving average resistance zones, so if the market only sees a short-term rebound without a real trend reversal, these bear certificates typically still maintain a good safety margin.

Overall, the current technical structure of the Hang Seng Index remains weak, hence the short-term trend is judged as 'sell'. Until the index firmly reclaims the 25,780-point (10-day moving average) level, the market is more likely to remain in a weak volatile pattern. However, since the index has gradually approached the 25,500-point support zone, a short-term technical rebound might occur. Therefore, when deploying bull and bear certificates, investors need to place greater emphasis on the distance to the call price, leverage levels, and market volatility risks, avoiding being forced into early redemption due to excessive leverage in a volatile market environment.

Yanzhou Energy (1171) closed at 16.65 yuan, rising by 1.27 yuan, with an increase of about 8.3%. Observing the intraday trend, the share price steadily advanced from the opening price of 15.80 yuan, reaching a high of 16.82 yuan during the session, which marks a one-month high. The trading volume amounted to approximately 1.62 billion yuan, showing clear capital inflow, and indicating a significant rise in market attention towards the stock's short-term performance.

From the technical structure perspective, Yanzhou Energy's current trend represents a classic strong breakout. The stock price not only broke through the key 16-yuan level but is also trading significantly above the major moving averages. The 10-day moving average is around 14.69 yuan, the 20-day moving average is approximately 14.09 yuan, and the 50-day moving average is near 12.24 yuan. There is already a noticeable gap between the current price and each of these moving averages, indicating a rather rapid short-term uptrend.

In terms of momentum indicators, the 9-day RSI has risen to 84.95, which falls into the obvious overbought region. An RSI at this level typically indicates that the short-term rally has been too rapid, and while the trend remains strong, it also implies increasing chances of a pullback or consolidation in the near term. In other words, although the market is bullish, it may not continue to surge linearly.

Estimating from the technical position, the first short-term support level is approximately at the 16-yuan mark, which was originally a significant resistance level but now, after breaking through, could transform into support. If the stock price retraces, the next notable support zone would be near 15.50 yuan, also close to the intraday low. Further down, support near 14.70 yuan (10-day moving average) can be monitored, as this area serves as a more crucial technical support.

Regarding resistance, since the stock price just broke through its one-month high, there isn't a very clear historical resistance level on the short-term technical chart. However, observing the price rhythm, the potential testing range in the short term might be around 17.5 to 18 yuan. As for the 20-yuan level, it acts as a major psychological threshold that requires continuous capital inflow and time accumulation to approach gradually.

Some investors have raised the question: the stock price quickly surged past 16 yuan; does this mean it will soon rise to 20 yuan?

From a technical perspective, although the current trend is indeed strong, the rise from 16 yuan to 20 yuan still represents an increase of nearly 20%. With the RSI already in the overbought zone, the stock price is more likely to consolidate or pull back at higher levels before determining its next direction. Therefore, the chance of a direct and rapid rise to 20 yuan in the short term is not very high; a more reasonable trend would typically involve consolidation first, followed by a gradual move into higher ranges.

Regarding the market's focus on call warrants with an exercise price of 20.88 yuan, from a structural perspective, this exercise price is approximately 25% out-of-the-money relative to the current price. This means that even if the stock price maintains an upward trend in the short term, unless it rises significantly, the sensitivity of such products to stock price changes will generally be lower. Additionally, call warrants with larger out-of-the-money levels often require more time to reflect leverage effects; if the stock enters a consolidation phase, time decay will also gradually increase.

Therefore, for investors expecting a continued upward trend in the short term, the market generally pays more attention to products with an exercise price near 17 to 18 yuan. These products are closer to the current price and usually respond more directly to stock price changes. Conversely, the call warrant with an exercise price of 20.88 yuan is more suitable for strategies anticipating significant mid-term increases and being willing to bear the risk of time value erosion.

Overall, Yanzhou Energy’s technical trend still reflects a strong upward structure, and its short-term trend can be classified as a "strong buy." However, since the RSI has clearly entered overbought territory, caution is needed for potential consolidation at higher levels. If the stock price can establish support near 16 yuan and maintain strength, there is potential to gradually test the 17 to 18 yuan range. But if a rapid rise leads to profit-taking, attention should be paid to the support level in the 15.5 to 16 yuan range.

3. Goldwind Technologies (2208) closed at 16.27 yuan, up 1.09 yuan for the day, with an increase of approximately 7.2%. The stock price rose gradually from the opening price of 15.22 yuan, reaching a high of 16.65 yuan during the session, also marking a one-month high. The trading volume was about 1.54 billion yuan, reflecting continuous inflow of market funds amid the recent upward trend, with a noticeable increase in short-term attention.

Observing the overall trend, Goldwind Technology has risen for seven consecutive trading days, reflecting a clear short-term bullish trend. The stock price has now stabilized above several key moving averages: the 10-day moving average is around 14.61 yuan, the 20-day moving average is about 14.38 yuan, and the 50-day moving average is roughly 14.76 yuan. With the current price at 16.27 yuan, there is a noticeable gap from these averages, indicating that the short-term trend remains upward.

In terms of momentum indicators, the 9-day RSI stands at 70.29, entering a relatively high zone. An RSI exceeding 70 typically indicates that the market is showing signs of short-term overheating. While this does not guarantee an immediate decline, it suggests increasing chances of consolidation or profit-taking in the short term. Therefore, after multiple days of gains, the stock price may not continue rising linearly but is more likely to consolidate first to digest recent increases.

From a technical perspective, the nearest short-term support level is around 16 yuan. This is a recently broken key psychological level, and if the stock price retraces while holding above this area, the overall uptrend structure can remain intact. The next notable support lies near 15.50 yuan, while stronger technical support exists in the 14.70 to 14.80 yuan range, close to the 50-day moving average.

As for resistance, given the recent breakout of highs, there are no significant historical resistances on the chart for now. However, based on the pace of the rally, the stock may first test the 17 to 17.50 yuan range. If the uptrend continues with sufficient capital inflow, the next major psychological level would be near 18 yuan.

Some investors are concerned whether the stock still has room to rise after seven consecutive days of gains. From a technical standpoint, the current trend remains strong as the stock is trading above all major moving averages, supported by healthy trading volume. However, with the RSI in a relatively high zone and the recent sharp rise, the stock’s most reasonable trajectory often involves consolidation at higher levels before seeking the next leg up. Thus, there is still upside potential in the short term, but increased volatility should also be expected.

As for investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 19.88 yuan, structurally speaking, this strike price is approximately 22% out-of-the-money compared to the current price. This means the stock needs to see substantial gains for the sensitivity of such products to gradually increase. If the stock price only rises to the 17 to 18 yuan range in the short term, the leverage effect of these deep out-of-the-money products may not fully materialize, while they would still face the impact of time decay.

Therefore, if investors originally had a medium-term bullish view on the wind power sector and anticipated the stock price could potentially challenge the 19 to 20 yuan range, holding call warrants with an exercise price of 19.88 yuan remains an aggressive strategy. However, for those simply looking to capture short-term gains, the market tends to favor products with strike prices closer to the 17 to 18 yuan range, as these are generally more responsive to stock price movements.

Overall, Goldwind Technology remains in a short-term uptrend, and its near-term outlook can be classified as a “buy.” However, due to consecutive days of gains and the RSI nearing overbought levels, caution is advised against potential consolidation or brief pullbacks. If the stock can establish support near 16 yuan and maintain strength, there is potential to gradually test the 17 to 18 yuan range. Should the uptrend slow, attention should be paid to the support level near 15.50 yuan.

4. Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK) closed at 13.96 yuan, rising 0.59 yuan for the day, with an increase of approximately 4.4%. The stock price gradually rose after opening at 13.53 yuan, reaching a high of 14.18 yuan during trading, with a turnover of about 1.86 billion yuan. Observing the recent trend, the stock price has rebounded after a previous pullback, and market attention has increased.

From a technical perspective, the current share price of Chalco is close to the 10-day moving average at 13.99 yuan, while still above the 20-day moving average at 13.63 yuan and the 50-day moving average at 13.38 yuan. This arrangement of moving averages typically indicates that the short- to medium-term structure remains stable, with no significant signs of market weakness. However, as the share price is currently near the 10-day line, the short-term direction still requires further confirmation from the market.

In terms of momentum, the 9-day RSI is at 53.88, in a moderately strong region. The RSI has not entered overbought or oversold levels, reflecting a relatively balanced market momentum, with neither excessive bullish sentiment nor obvious selling pressure. Therefore, the short-term trend is more likely to remain within a range-bound consolidation pattern.

Based on technical levels, the first short-term support can be referenced around 13.60 yuan, close to the 20-day moving average. If this level is broken, the next key support would be approximately at 13.38 yuan, corresponding to the 50-day moving average. Should market adjustments expand further, attention should be paid to the support strength at the psychological level of 13 yuan.

Regarding resistance, the first short-term resistance can be referenced around 14.20 yuan, near today's intraday high. If the price breaks through and stabilizes above this level, the next significant resistance would be in the range of 15 to 15.30 yuan, close to the one-month high of 15.27 yuan.

Considering both support and resistance zones, Chalco's reasonable short-term trading range is approximately between 13.60 yuan and 14.20 yuan. A break above 14.20 yuan could allow the stock to retest the 15-yuan region; conversely, a drop below 13.60 yuan may signal a possible pullback towards 13.30 yuan.

Some investors are also monitoring call and put warrants. From a structural perspective, the call warrant with a strike price of 16.89 yuan is relatively deep out-of-the-money compared to the current price, about 20% away. If the stock price only oscillates within the 13.6 to 14.2 yuan range in the short term, these products tend to have lower sensitivity to price movements. Only when the price rises consistently and approaches the 15-yuan zone will their leverage effect gradually increase.

As for the put warrant with a strike price of 10.88 yuan, it is considered significantly out-of-the-money relative to the current price. This means that even if the market undergoes a normal correction, such as a pullback to near 13 yuan, the sensitivity of these products might not be very noticeable. Generally speaking, these deeper out-of-the-money puts are better suited for strategies anticipating a clearer mid-term downward trend.

Overall, Chalco’s current technical structure is neutral-leaning stable. The stock price remains above the major moving averages, and the RSI is in a neutral zone. Thus, the short-term outlook can be categorized as 'neutral.' Unless the price breaks above the 14.20 yuan resistance or falls below the 13.60 yuan support, the stock is likely to remain within a range-bound pattern. For investors watching both calls and puts, the market is still in an unclear directional phase, requiring closer attention to potential technical breakouts or breakdowns.

Pop Mart (9992) closed at 205.20 yuan, up 0.40 yuan, with a gain of approximately 0.2%. The daily range was between 202 and 208.20 yuan, with a turnover of approximately 1.6 billion yuan. Observing recent trends, after the stock retreated from its previous high of 255 yuan, it is now gradually establishing a support zone around 200 yuan, with market sentiment shifting from sharp declines to consolidation.

From a technical standpoint, the current share price is below the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is around 211 yuan, the 50-day moving average is approximately 216.8 yuan, and the 20-day moving average sits at 228.5 yuan. When the stock price is below multiple moving averages simultaneously, it typically indicates that the short- and medium-term trends are still in an adjustment phase, with the moving average regions acting as significant resistance during any rebound attempts.

In terms of momentum, the 9-day RSI is at 29.25, which has entered the near oversold region. An RSI around 30 usually indicates a significant short-term market decline, with selling pressure gradually easing. Technically, this makes a rebound or corrective rally more likely. Therefore, recent price support emerging around the 200 yuan level aligns with conditions for a technical rebound.

From a technical perspective, the 200 yuan level indeed serves as an important support zone. Today’s low of 202 yuan also approached this level. As long as the price can hold steady above 200 yuan, the short-term market structure may stabilize progressively. If this zone is breached, the next key support will be around 194 to 195 yuan, close to the one-month low of 194.30 yuan.

On the resistance side, the first short-term resistance zone is around 210 to 212 yuan, near the 10-day moving average. If rebound momentum persists, the next notable resistance will be approximately 216 to 218 yuan, near the 50-day moving average. A breakthrough above this area would provide an opportunity for prices to test the 228 yuan mark (20-day moving average).

Some investors have expressed the view that as long as the price stabilizes above 200 yuan, there could be a potential upward surge before earnings reports. From a technical standpoint, this scenario holds some possibility. This is because after the adjustment from 255 yuan down to near 200 yuan, the RSI has approached oversold levels. Once market sentiment improves or funds are deployed ahead of earnings season, prices often experience a technical rebound.

Based on the rhythm of the rebound, the first reasonable short-term target zone is approximately 212 yuan, near the 10-day moving average. If rebound momentum expands further, the next possible target zone would be around 216 to 220 yuan. Should market expectations for earnings turn optimistic and successfully break through the 50-day moving average resistance, prices could potentially rise to the 225 to 230 yuan range.

However, it is important to note that the overall trend has not yet officially strengthened. Thus, even if a rebound occurs, it is more likely to be a technical recovery rally. Until the price re-stabilizes in the 216 to 220 yuan zone, the market remains within an adjustment phase.

Considering both technical structure and momentum indicators, Pop Mart’s current short-term trend can be classified as "neutral with a bias toward rebound." As long as support at 200 yuan holds, there is indeed a chance for a short-term rebound before earnings, with a reasonable short-term rebound target between 212 and 220 yuan. If market sentiment further improves, prices could extend towards the 225 to 230 yuan range.

Xiaomi Group-W (1810) last closed at 33.30 yuan, down slightly by 0.04 yuan, with a decline of approximately 0.1%. The intraday trading range was between 33.00 and 33.72 yuan, with a turnover of about 2.62 billion yuan. Observing the intraday price movement, volatility has relatively narrowed, reflecting a cooling off in short-term market trading activity, which investors refer to as a 'decline in trading volume.'

From a technical perspective, Xiaomi Group's current share price is slightly above the 10-day moving average of 33.12 yuan but below the 20-day moving average of 34.62 yuan and the 50-day moving average of 35.97 yuan. This arrangement typically suggests that the stock, following an earlier pullback, is now in a short-term consolidation phase. In other words, the market has yet to establish a clear upward trend, but no significant weakness has emerged either.

In terms of momentum, the 9-day RSI stands at 41.65, in the neutral-to-weak range. The RSI has not entered oversold territory, so no strong technical rebound signal has emerged yet. However, the RSI is also not at excessively high levels, indicating that the stock still has room to fluctuate within a range-bound pattern.

Observing the support and resistance structure, the first short-term support level can be referenced at the 33 yuan mark, near today’s intraday low. If the price falls below this area, the next visible support will be approximately 32 yuan, while the more critical support zone lies around 31 to 31.20 yuan, coinciding with the one-month low of 31.20 yuan. If sufficient buying emerges near this zone, the overall intermediate-term structure can maintain a sideways trading pattern.

In terms of resistance, the first short-term resistance level is near 34.6 yuan, which is the 20-day moving average. If the stock price can break through and stabilize above this area again, the market may gradually test the level near 36 yuan (50-day moving average). If the upward trend continues further, the next important psychological level will be in the 37 to 38 yuan range.

Some investors have expressed the view that the stock price could rebound to 40 yuan. From a technical perspective, 40 yuan represents a rise of approximately 20% from the current price, making the likelihood of reaching it in the short term relatively low. For the stock price to progress toward 40 yuan, it would usually need to break through several key resistance levels such as 34.6 yuan, 36 yuan, and 37 yuan, establishing a new uptrend. Therefore, a more reasonable outlook would involve a rebound to the 36 to 38 yuan range first, followed by observing market momentum.

As for the bull certificates that investors are paying attention to (with a call price of 29 yuan), from a structural perspective, this call price is about 13% away from the current price. If the stock price only fluctuates within the range of 31 to 35 yuan in the short term, these bull certificates still have a certain safety margin and are unlikely to be triggered by short-term fluctuations. Therefore, for investors expecting a medium-term rebound, bull certificates with a call price around 29 yuan belong to a relatively stable leverage structure.

However, it should also be noted that if the stock price falls below the support area at 31 yuan, market sentiment may weaken. At that point, index-based funds or short-term trading positions may accelerate their exit, and the stock price could potentially fall further. Therefore, even though the call price is far away, it is still necessary to monitor whether the support around 31 yuan remains solid.

Overall, Xiaomi's current technical structure is consolidating on the weaker side, and its short-term trend can be classified as "neutral." If the stock price can continue to hold steady above 33 yuan and re-break through 34.6 yuan, the short-term rebound target may initially look towards the area near 36 yuan. And if market sentiment improves further, the stock price may gradually test the 37 to 38 yuan range, and then observe whether conditions are present to challenge the 40-yuan level.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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